How Caleb Williams’ Divisive Public Image Masks How Good He Really Is
People have been trying to pinpoint who Caleb Williams is as a quarterback for two years. Or, more accurately, they’re trying to assess who he will become. That is why there have been so many pro comparisons thrown around. Most started with his idol, former Green Bay Packers legend Aaron Rodgers. Williams even admitted he modeled his game after the future Hall of Famer. However, based on how things have progressed for the Chicago Bears quarterback in the past year, both on and off the field, many see him as following a similar trajectory to Josh Allen.
Prominent Bears expert Kyle Morris, a respected analytics expert, doesn’t agree. He crunched the numbers and Allen isn’t the one who mirrors Williams the closest. That is none other than former All-Pro Andrew Luck. The retired Indianapolis Colts legend had a strikingly similar second season in 2013 to Williams’ 2025. It offers plenty of proof that the debate for the latter’s completion percentage is pointless, and that much bigger things are ahead for the young Bears quarterback.
Caleb Williams is right on the Luck trajectory.
| Statistic | Caleb Williams (2025) | Andrew Luck (2013) |
|---|---|---|
| PFF Overall Grade | 76.9 | 81.0 |
| EPA per Play | +0.048 | +0.055 |
| ANY/A | 6.76 | 6.11 |
| Sack Rate | 4.1% | 5.2% |
| Time-to-Throw | 3.20s | 2.68s |
| Big-Time Throw Rate | 5.3% | 4.8% |
| Deep Ball Accuracy | 46.7% | 41.2% |
| Adjusted Completion % | 73.1% | 71.4% |
| Passing Yards | 3,942 | 3,822 |
| TD / INT Ratio | 27 / 7 | 23 / 9 |
| Rushing Yards (TDs) | 388 (3) | 377 (4) |
“If we want to find the closest comp to Caleb Williams at this stage in his development the answer is not to sort the 2025 leaderboard by completion % and make nonsensical comparisons to JJ McCarthy. It’s to ask when was the last time we saw a young, exceptionally-talented quarterback produce like a significantly above-average passer despite some accuracy issues in an offense that asked him to handle significant dropback pass volume from under center and without a ton of “easy” throws that have come to dominate most schemes since. The answer is 2013 Andrew Luck.
The comparison is actually startling. While Williams was a bit more productive overall in terms of ANY/A I’m going to give Luck a little credit here and note he was dealing with a much worse offensive line than Caleb this year. Otherwise the results are quite similar. Both quarterbacks attempted roughly 31% of their pass attempts from under center, both threw 10+ yards down the field on roughly 35% of their pass attempts. Both threw 20+ touchdowns and had 3,800+ passing yards with fewer than 10 interceptions. PFF graded the two remarkably similar and gave them the exact same Big Time Throw rate and similar Turnover Worthy Play rates. Their adjusted completion % was quite close as well. We’ve seen this exact movie before.”
Williams now has two big advantages over Luck.
The biggest problems that plagued the former Colts quarterback were poor pass protection and inconsistent offensive structure. Indianapolis allowed 174 sacks in 86 games. The ferocious beatings he took were the primary catalyst for his retirement in 2019. Luck also had four different offensive coordinators in his career. Chicago has already addressed both of these problems. After Williams took 68 sacks as a rookie, the Bears did a massive overhaul of the offensive line last offseason, adding Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, and Drew Dalman. Williams took 24 sacks in 2025. On top of that, they hired Ben Johnson as the head coach. He will also serve as the offensive coordinator, meaning Williams will play in the same offensive system every year.
This means the Bears quarterback has a chance to achieve what Luck did, but over a longer period. Remember, the Colts legend cracked 4,000 yards four times and 30 touchdowns three times in just six seasons. If he’d stayed healthy, he would probably be in Hall of Fame conversations by now. If this trend holds with Caleb Williams, that is who the Bears will have for at least the next decade. It is crazy to think what the organization could accomplish if that is the case.
So why isn’t Williams getting more credit?
Let’s not gloss over the fact that he is the first quarterback in Bears history to account for over 4,000 total yards and 30 touchdowns in a season. He led them to the playoffs and won a playoff game. One would think that would at least get him some acknowledgement from the national media. Sure, they give him his props for the many insane plays he made, but it still feels like they don’t view him as a top quarterback. He didn’t even get a nod to the Pro Bowl. If you think that means nothing, check this out. Here is every QB in the Super Bowl era who posted similar numbers to Williams in their second season in the NFL, including Luck.
| Player | Team | Season | Passing Yards | Passing TDs | Pro Bowl? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | Oakland Raiders | 2015 | 3,987 | 32 | Yes |
| Kyler Murray | Arizona Cardinals | 2020 | 3,971 | 26 | Yes |
| Caleb Williams | Chicago Bears | 2025 | 3,942 | 27 | No |
| Daunte Culpepper | Minnesota Vikings | 2000 | 3,937 | 33 | Yes |
| Bo Nix | Denver Broncos | 2025 | 3,931 | 25 | Yes (Selected/Opted Out) |
| Ken O’Brien | New York Jets | 1985 | 3,888 | 25 | Yes |
| Andrew Luck | Indianapolis Colts | 2013 | 3,822 | 23 | Yes |
That’s right. Of the six other quarterbacks listed, all of them made the Pro Bowl that respective year. The only one who didn’t was Caleb Williams. Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield, who didn’t make the playoffs and had fewer yards and touchdowns, got the nod instead. Why? The simplest answer is that he has a better public image. It is time to address the elephant in the room. One inescapable fact is that Williams, for all his obvious ability, is not overly popular with the national media.
There are plenty of reasons that go into this.
From a young age, Williams was surrounded by hype and expectations. As he kept living up to them, it became easier for many to become jealous of his success. He has an undeniable sense of self-confidence. It can often be misinterpreted as arrogance. People often prefer their quarterbacks humble to a fault. Then you have his unique personality. This is a quarterback who willingly paints his nails before games. Older generations identify that as effeminate and have no place in a man’s game like football. Then you add how he cried in his mother’s arms on national TV after a tough loss to Utah, and that only made it worse.
Last but not least, you had the highly controversial column from Tyler Dunne of Go Long, accusing Williams of being a selfish player who didn’t listen to coaches, didn’t work hard, and thought he knew best. All of this was hanging over the quarterback’s head at the start of last season, making him one of the more hated players at the position. Even as he led the Bears to seven 4th quarter comebacks and made magic every week, those same people who got the wrong impression refused to back off their initial stance.
That is why Williams doesn’t receive Pro Bowl recognition and isn’t considered a top-10 quarterback. Don’t forget, Luck was already there by the end of 2013. Never forget that public image goes a long way in determining when, or even if, a quarterback receives the credit he deserves.