Iran is now on ‘death ground’ amid existential threat from U.S. attacks and could ‘go big’ in retaliation, former NATO commander warns

With President Donald Trump calling for regime change in Iran, the country’s leadership now faces an existential threat and is likely to respond to U.S.-Israeli airstrikes accordingly, experts said.

So far, the Islamic Republic appears to be launching fewer missiles and drones in retaliation compared to its barrage in June 2025, when the U.S. joined Israel’s 12-day war on Iran to target nuclear facilities.

But retired Admiral James Stavridis, former NATO supreme allied commander, told CNN on Saturday that Iran has two options. One is to continue launching missiles at the current tempo and hunker down.

“Option two: if they truly believe they’re at the end of the string, they could go big and that would mean closing the Strait of Hormuz, conducting terrorist attacks against American diplomats, businessmen and citizens in the region and elsewhere,” he added. “They could unleash what’s left of their proxies, notably the Houthis who could try to shut down shipping again through the Suez Canal. So they have a lot of cards still to play.”

Energy analysts have warned that closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil passes, could send Brent crude prices soaring to $100 a barrel.

Before the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes, Iran conducted military exercises near the strait to demonstrate that threat, though there are no indications yet that it is attempting to do so now.

Initial U.S. airstrikes on Saturday also reportedly targeted Iranian naval assets in the Persian Gulf, potentially degrading Tehran’s ability to shut down the strait. Trump vowed to obliterate Iran’s navy.

Stavridis also recalled teachings from ancient Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu, who counseled finding a way out of conflicts without actually fighting—but fighting when on “death ground.” 

“I think the Iranian leadership may feel they are on death ground. I’d look for them to go big,” he predicted.

Meanwhile, Colin Clarke, executive director of the Soufan Center security advisory firm, also warned that Iran could resort to extreme measures to retaliate, including terrorism.

“For Iran, this war is existential. And because it is, I would fully expect Tehran to activate any sleeper cell capacity it has in the West to make this painful for the U.S. & Israel. Hezbollah and other assets could very well seek to conduct attacks in Europe, North America, etc.,” he posted on X.

Thomas Warrick , a scholar at the Atlantic Council and a former deputy assistant secretary for counterterrorism policy in the Department of Homeland Security, similarly raised the possibility that Iran will use “asymmetric” tactics against the U.S.

In a blog post, he said the regime will likely target Trump and other top U.S. officials, putting pressure on the FBI, Secret Service, and Capitol Police.

“Iran will try every cyber trick it can mount, testing the Department of Homeland Security, the private sector, and U.S. cyber defenses,” Warrick  added. “Iran tried in the past, unsuccessfully, to meddle in U.S. elections, and would almost certainly fail to have any impact this time. Even though the United States imports very little oil from the Middle East, energy prices may spike, setting back the U.S. economy.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com