Ten Arms, Five Spots: The White Sox Rotation Battle Is On

Will Venable has yet to name the Chicago White Sox Opening Day starter, but with 10 pitchers competing for five spots in the rotation, that’s only one of several questions the club must answer this spring.

As the depth chart currently stands, Shane Smith, Anthony Kay, and Davis Martin appear to have firm holds on three of those spots. Smith posted a 3.81 ERA last season and was named the White Sox lone All-Star selection last season.

Martin showed flashes of potential, finishing the year with a 4.10 ERA and a near 46% ground-ball rate, giving the White Sox a steady middle-of-the-rotation option.

Kay marked one of the White Sox most significant offseason additions this offseason after signing a two-year, $12 million deal that includes a mutual option for a third season. The 30-year old southpaw returns to the MLB after a dominant stint in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, where he recorded a 1.74 ERA over 155 innings. MLB insider Jon Heyman reported that Kay received larger offers to remain in Japan but chose to take a pay cut to return to the majors, a sign the White Sox view him as a key part of their 2026 rotation plans.

Erick Fedde

That is where the fun begins. Erick Fedde appears to be next in line for a rotation spot. The right-hander signed a one-year deal to return to Chicago after a breakout 2024 season in which he posted a 3.11 ERA across 21 starts for the White Sox before the club flipped him at the trade deadline.

The reunion appears mutually beneficial as the White Sox get an innings-eater for the back end of the rotation, while Fedde gets a chance to rebuild his value after a rough 2025 season that included a 5.49 ERA over 141 innings with the Cardinals, Braves, and Brewers.

But if those struggles continue, there is still a chance he could be moved into a swingman role out of the bullpen.  Last season, his already modest strikeout rate dipped further, while his walk rate spiked to 13.3 percent. He is still in line to crack the Opening Day roster as a starter, but if some of the White Sox other arms force the issue in camp, he could be one of the starters on the chopping block.

The remaining rotational options include Sean Burke, Drew Thorpe, Sean Newcomb, Mike Vasil, Jordan Hicks, with David Sandlin and Tanner McDougal being outside fridge candidates.

Sean Burke

Burke was named the Opening Day starter last season, and there was plenty to like about his body of work. He finished the year with a respectable 4.22 ERA across 134.1 innings, but was plagued by inconsistency. His 10.6% walk rate was one of the highest in baseball; he had difficulty generating swings and misses, and opponents didn’t have much issue drawing hard contact.

For Burke to take the next step, limiting free passes will be critical, as will inducing more ground balls to offset the contact he allows. But at 26 years old and with just 32 MLB appearances under his belt, there is still room for growth.

This spring carries added importance for Burke, and he is off to a promising start. In his lone Cactus League outing, he tossed two scoreless innings and allowed just one hit.

Drew Thorpe

Drew Thorpe missed the entire 2025 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in the spring. He entered camp last year as one of the favorites to earn a rotation spot, but experienced multiple setbacks once he began throwing, including elbow discomfort that ultimately led to him being shut down.

While many pitchers return from Tommy John surgery with improved velocity, there is reason for caution in Thorpe’s case, given his recent injury history. He also missed the end of the 2024 season with a right flexor strain, adding another layer of uncertainty to his return.

Because of this, Thorpe will likely start the season in Triple-A as the White Sox try to gradually ramp up his workload.

Sean Newcomb

Newcomb presents an intriguing case. He has said multiple times that he prefers starting, citing the structure and routine that come with being part of a rotation. The White Sox are giving him that opportunity this spring, but his career splits suggest he may ultimately be better suited for a bullpen role.

The 32-year-old has been markedly more effective as a reliever. Last season, he recorded two saves with the Athletics and posted a 2.19 ERA over 70 relief innings split between the Red Sox and A’s. As a starter, he logged a 4.43 ERA.

That trend is consistent with his broader track record. In 158 career relief appearances, Newcomb owns a 3.84 ERA and has held opponents to a .213 batting average across 199 innings. As a starter, his ERA rises to 4.41, with hitters batting .257 over 324 1/3 innings. Because of this, the White Sox would be wise to keep him in the pen.

Jordan Hicks

Hicks has said he is comfortable in any role, but like Newcomb, his splits suggest he is more effective out of the bullpen. One of the hardest throwers in the game, Hicks owns a fastball that has averaged 97 mph during his career and has generated ground balls at a 56.8% clip over eight seasons.

Even so, he has struggled to establish a consistent role. Over his final 13 starts with the Giants, his ERA rose to 4.01, with opponents hitting .255 against him, as his velocity dipped late in the season. San Francisco gave him another opportunity to start in 2025, but the results regressed further. He allowed 36 earned runs on 55 hits in 13 appearances — nine of them starts — before being traded to Boston, where he spent the remainder of the year in relief.

Hicks said this offseason that he has touched 99.5 mph and is averaging around 96 mph with his fastball, an encouraging sign entering camp. A bullpen role could allow him to lean into that velocity and maximize his effectiveness in shorter outings.

Mike Vasil

It is also hard to justify moving Vasil from the bullpen after he emerged as one of the White Sox most effective bullpen arms last season. He posted a 2.50 ERA, 50% ground ball rate, and limited opponents to a .227 expected batting average.

While Sandlin and McDougal possess the arsenal to profile as middle-of-the-rotation starters long term, they are likely to open the season in the minor leagues to continue their development.

Projected Starting Rotation

As it stands, the projected rotation appears to be:

• Shane Smith
• Anthony Kay
• Davis Martin
• Erick Fedde
• Sean Burke