Climate Change Is Coming for Your Morning Coffee

Hotter weather related to climate change is affecting coffee production. Credit: Delightin Dee/Unsplash

By Busani Bafana
BULAWAYO, Zimbabwe, Feb 27 2026 (IPS)

Your morning cup of coffee could soon cost more, thanks to climate change, which is raising the heat on the production of the world’s most loved beverage.

Increased episodes of high heat in top coffee-growing regions of the world are affecting the production of coffee, leading to low harvests and high prices for consumers. This is the finding of a new study by Climate Central, highlighting the urgency for coffee farmers to adapt to adverse weather conditions.  Coffee plants are highly sensitive to weather changes.

Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia, and Indonesia – the top five coffee-producing countries –  have each experienced 57 extra days of harmful heat per year  on average due to climate change, according to Climate Central, a non-profit organisation of independent scientists and communicators researching climate change. The five countries collectively supply 75 percent of the world’s coffee.

High Heat, Low Coffee

An analysis by Climate Central compared observed temperatures from 2021 to 2025 to a hypothetical world without carbon pollution using the Climate Shift Index. The analysis calculated the additional number of days per year that climate change pushed temperatures above the coffee-harming threshold of 30°C (86°F) across the major coffee-producing countries.

“When temperatures rise above this threshold, coffee plants experience heat stress that can reduce yield, affect bean quality, and increase the vulnerability of plants to disease,” the study  said, noting that climate change threatens a reduced supply and quality of coffee, not to mention higher prices for the most favoured beverage.

The world drinks an estimated 2.2 billion cups of coffee every day. The United States is the world’s largest consumer of coffee by volume. Finland is the largest consumer of coffee per person, at four cups a day per person, according to Statista.

Smaller harvests and higher prices hit smallholder farmers the hardest. Smallholder farmers account for about 80% of global producers and about 60 percent of global supply but received just 0.36 percent of the financing needed to adapt to the impacts of climate change in 2021. The average cost of adaptation for a 1-hectare farm is USD 2.19 a day — less than the price of a cup of coffee in many countries.

“The world’s coffee supply is under growing pressure and climate change is playing a significant role,” says the study.

All 25 coffee-growing countries examined – representing 97% of global production – experienced more coffee-harming heat because of climate change. On average, each country experienced 47 additional days per year with temperatures harmful to coffee plants that would not have occurred without fossil fuel pollution.

Shel Winkley, a meteorologist with Climate Central, said global coffee prices have reached record highs during the last five years and climate change has added more ‘coffee-harming’ heat above 30°c across the global bean belt.

“Heat stress can reduce both the quality and quantity of harvests, meaning less coffee, higher prices and a more costly morning routine and afternoon pick-me-up,” said Winkley in a statement. “Farmers are doing their best to adjust, like planting shade trees that naturally cool coffee plants, attempting to protect future harvests in our warming world.”

Cooling coffee, protecting harvests

In Ethiopia, one of the largest coffee producers in the world, farmers are feeling the heat.

Dejene Dadi, General Manager of Oromia Coffee Farmers Cooperatives Union (OCFCU), a smallholder cooperative that is one of the largest coffee producers and exporters in Ethiopia, highlighted that the Ethiopian Arabica is sensitive to direct sunlight and needs sufficient shade to produce more beans.

“To safeguard coffee supplies, governments need to act on climate change,” said Dadi, adding that, “They [government] must also work with, and invest in, smallholder coffee farmers and their organisations so we can scale up the solutions we need to adapt.”

The Oromia Coffee Farmers Cooperatives Union (OCFCU) has distributed energy-efficient cookstoves that reduce the need for firewood and protect forest areas that serve as natural shelters for coffee cultivation.   More than 19 000 efficient “Mirt” and “Caltu” cookstoves have been distributed to coffee farmers in Jima, Ethiopia, replacing traditional fires. The project, according to the Union, has reduced 20,323 tCO₂e/year and saves half of the fuel needs.

In 2025 Ethiopia exported 467,000 tonnes of coffee to the European Union for the 2024/2025 farming. Ethiopia and Uganda account for 80 percent of Africa’s total coffee exports, mainly to the European market, according to the International Coffee Organization (ICO).

A 2022 study predicted a massive decline in the suitable land for growing arabic coffee by 2050 as a result of rising temperatures. Already the IPCC  forecasts that the world is on course to surpass the 1.5 degree Celsius warming limit set by the Paris Agreement. Any further rise in temperatures could lead to the loss of  the

Coffee farming provides income for around 12.5 million farming families globally and is one of the top traded commodities.

While in Colombia, another world-top coffee producer, farmers experienced extreme heat with an average of 70 extra coffee-harming hot days annually because of climate change.

Eugenio Cifuentes, from Tuluá, Valle, Colombia, who has been farming coffee for 25 years and co-founded the Colombian Organic Coffee Growers Association, ACOC-Cafe Sano, said Colombian coffee farmers were battling against heat, drought and erratic rainfall. They need training and funding to adapt to climate impacts.

“We need to eliminate monoculture farming – which relies on chemical fertilisers and pesticides to produce a single crop – in favour of practices such as agroforestry that work with nature to build climate resilience,” he said.

“You can see and feel the benefits on my farm where I planted trees to protect the coffee from the heat.  In 2024 – a hot and dry year – the cooling effect of the trees helped maintain the quality and quantity of production, whereas the neighbouring monoculture farms had serious quality problems.”

India is the seventh largest producer of coffee globally and a top exporter as well. The country produces arabica and robusta coffee under shade. Arabica and robusta coffee make up 99 percent of the coffee consumed globally out of the more than 120 coffee species grown around the world.

In India, Sohan Shetty, who manages a number of biodiversity-rich shaded organic coffee farms for Satyanarayana Plantations in the Western Ghats, has experienced increased temperatures and erratic rainfall.

“We see a reduction in soil moisture, even in shade-grown coffee,” Shetty said. “This creates stress for coffee plants, which in turn triggers blossoms with erratic rains. So it’s quite common to see planters halting harvesting because part of their plants have blossomed.

Akshay Dashrath, co-founder and grower at the South India Coffee Company, produces coffee at his Mooleh Manay farm.

Dashrath said climate change was no longer something they predicted but something they measured daily owing to higher temperatures and higher moisture loss than what the coffee in the region depended on.

“Coffee is a crop that thrives on balance. Shade, moisture, and cool recovery periods. As that balance narrows, farms like ours and our partner farms have to adapt fast through better shade management, soil health, and water resilience. What’s happening at Mooleh Manay is a clear signal that climate change is already reshaping how coffee is grown in Kodagu,” said Dashrath.

IPS UN Bureau Report