Skeptics Sleeping on the White Sox? The White Sox Over Is Screaming Value
Spring Training is the time of year when optimism runs through every clubhouse in Major League Baseball. It’s a fresh start, a new year, a new roster, and a clean slate for players eager to prove the doubters wrong.
The White Sox have no shortage of doubters, but that skepticism could create real value for optimistic bettors. Most sportsbooks have set the White Sox’s 2026 win total around 66.5, after going 60-102 last season.
Yet a budding young core, highlighted by standouts like Colson Montgomery, Kyle Teel, and Edgar Quero, combined with some intriguing offseason additions, has the club positioned to exceed expectations.
Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system, one of the most respected projection models, currently forecasts the White Sox to win 69 games, placing them last in the AL Central. While contention for the division title remains unlikely, there’s reason to believe they can clear the 66.5 line and even push past 70 wins overall.
The White Sox should benefit from one of the weakest divisions in baseball. As things currently stand, PECTOA has the Royals favored to win the AL Central with just 85 wins, the lowest ceiling among all divisions. The Tigers are the only other team in the division projected to win 80 games.
The White Sox biggest Achilles heel last season was the bullpen, which blew 24 saves and converted on just 51% of their save opportunities. It was a major factor in the team’s MLB-leading 36 one-run losses, turning winnable nights into missed opportunities.
Chris Getz made a concerted effort to address this issue over the offseason, which included adding Serantony Dominguez, Sean Newcomb, and Jordan Hicks to add depth around promising young arms like Jordan Leasure, Grant Taylor, and Mike Vasil.
Dominguez gives the White Sox a defined closer after Will Venable was forced to use eight different arms last season to record a save. Newcomb provides a much-needed left-hander to bolster the bullpen, assuming he doesn’t land a spot in the rotation, while Hicks gives the bullpen another versatile arm who can touch triple-digits.
Together, Leasure, Taylor, and Domínguez form a trio of hard-throwing right-handers capable of dominating the back end, giving the bullpen a stronger spine for close games.
The rotation also gets a modest boost from targeted moves. The White Sox reunited with Erick Fedde on a low-risk one-year deal for familiar veteran innings and depth. They signed KBO standout Anthony Kay to a two-year contract, betting on his dominant overseas performance to solidify the middle of the rotation.
Shane Smith enters 2026 looking to build on his breakout All-Star rookie campaign, while Davis Martin provided optimism last year with a near-46% groundball rate and reliable innings-eating ability.
On the offensive side, the White Sox took a hit by trading away Luis Robert Jr., a 1.4 WAR contributor last season, to the Mets, receiving infielder/outfielder Luisangel Acuña (who posted a 0.6 WAR in 2025). However, Acuña, now with a full, everyday runway in Chicago after limited big-league opportunities with New York, has real upside to outperform that baseline. The 23-year-old showed flashes of power in the Venezuelan Winter League, slashing .282/.397/.542 with 8 HR in 39 games. If he capitalizes on regular at-bats and the South Side’s hitter-friendly environment, his production could climb.
Getz also landed Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami, the NPB’s home run leader, on a two-year, $34 million deal, adding a high-upside power bat who could anchor the middle of the order and provide immediate thump. Meanwhile, Austin Hays brings a much-needed outfield bat and has plenty of motivation on a one-year deal.
The farm system also features Sam Antonacci, who is making an early case to crack the roster, as well as power arms Tanner McDougal, Hagen Smith, and Noah Schultz, who could see action at some point. At the very least, the added organizational depth will help prevent the team from bottoming out should the injury bug strike.
These aren’t blockbuster overhauls, but they’re smart, cost-effective steps to raise the floor, especially in a forgiving AL Central. If the new bullpen pieces click in high-leverage spots and the rotation holds together, and the young core benefits from the added lineup protection, the White Sox could turn more late leads into wins and push past PECOTA’s modest 69-win outlook. With the betting lines sitting at 66.5, there’s a clear case to hammer the over.