Pac-12 football 2026 preview: Boise State is the clear frontrunner as inaugural season approaches
The rebuilt Pac-12 is six months from taking the field. That’s typically two eternities in college football, but because the transfer portal closed its gates in the middle of January, only so much change can play out prior to kickoff.
Rosters are effectively set, coaching staffs are largely finalized and schedules are locked in place.
It’s time to forecast the race.
The following Hotline projections will be revised after spring practice and again at the close of training camp, once depth charts are set.
One caveat before we dive in: With eight teams playing seven conference games, ties are inevitable. But the Hotline does not pick ties. Never has. Never will.
(The Pac-12’s tiebreaker procedure will be announced in coming months.)
Here we go.
1. Boise State
Last year: 9-5
Comment: The three-time defending Mountain West champions are the team to beat in the Pac-12 based on their winning culture, coaching continuity and personnel. Quarterback Maddux Madsen returns, as do the top backups. That experience will help the Broncos early as their retooled offensive line gains cohesion. Defensively, Boise State should be solid but perhaps not dominant, although the strength of the unit, the edge rushers, is precisely where you want the strength to be. The Broncos open their next era at Oregon, which should ensure a focused and productive offseason.
2. Fresno State
Last year: 9-4
Comment: We considered picking the Bulldogs to win the conference, in part because they handled Boise State impressively (30-7) last season, return several important pieces and have one of the top coaches in the Pac-12 (Matt Entz). But there is a sizable void at quarterback following the departures of EJ Warner (eligibility) and Carson Conklin (portal). Is Maryland transfer Kristian Martin the answer? If so, the Bulldogs could match Boise State stride for stride. But he has thrown just 17 career passes.
3. San Diego State
Last year: 9-4
Comment: There is plenty to like with third-year coach Sean Lewis, senior quarterback Jayden Denegal, star tailback Lucky Sutton and a solid collection of receivers. Elsewhere, the Aztecs have holes: The offensive line and secondary were hit hard by attrition; the top edge rushers (Trey White and Ryan Henderson) are gone; and the departure of defensive mastermind Rob Aurich (to Nebraska) is significant. All in all, SDSU should take a step forward on offense and step backward on defense, which translates to a top-tier finish but no trophy.
4. Washington State
Last year: 7-6
Comment: The Cougars not only have a new head coach following the departure of Jimmy Rogers (to Iowa State); they have a new head coach: This is 35-year-old Kirby Moore’s first experience in the corner office. We have little sense of Moore’s ability to manage a program, but his task is made easier in one respect: WSU will have perhaps the most experienced, cohesive offensive line in the conference. The continuity up front should assist the yet-to-be-identified starting quarterback. (Our money is on UC Davis transfer Caden Pinnick.) The stout 2025 defense lost many of its top performers and must be rebuilt.
5. Utah State
Last year: 6-7
Comment: Utah State’s primary challenge isn’t the conference switch or a coaching disruption — Bronco Mendenhall is back for Year 2 — or anything relating to the depth chart. It’s the schedule, which is downright brutal. The Aggies face Washington and Utah on the road in September, then open conference play at Boise State, followed by a visit from WSU. If the medical tent isn’t overflowing (and their confidence isn’t in tatters) by that point, perhaps the Aggies could generate enough late-season momentum to be relevant in the race.
6. Texas State
Last year: 7-6
Comment: Seven of the eight teams listed here have a common background through conference affiliations or recent head-to-head matchups. The Bobcats are the outlier. Do their results in the Sun Belt translate? How should we compare coach GJ Kinne and his staff to their Pac-12 peers? We suspect the competition will be stronger — it’s the Group of Six equivalent of jumping from the Big 12 to the SEC — thus leading to a mediocre first year for the Bobcats. That said, quarterback Brad Jackson is a dynamic runner and accurate thrower who started last year as a freshman. His return gives Texas State a reasonable chance to make this projection look foolish.
7. Oregon State
Last year: 2-10
Comment: The inaugural season of the new Pac-12 offers the Beavers the opportunity for a restart — and to completely forget their two wasted falls in the wilderness. Coach JaMarcus Shephard has the energy and charisma necessary to revive the program, but does he have the cold, hard cash to acquire the talent that could fuel a multi-year turnaround? The Beavers won’t get fixed in one season. Although Shephard caught a break with the return of quarterback Maalik Murphy, OSU’s talent deficit is substantial, even in a conference loaded with former Mountain West schools.
8. Colorado State
Last year: 2-10
Comment: Everything is new in Fort Collins, including the head coach, and that’s a good thing. Jim Mora was one of the shrewdest hires in major college football — the Rams took exactly the type of calculated risk necessary to elevate their program at just the right time. Mora’s roster will include 35 transfers and 27 freshmen, per the 247Sports database. (Many of the transfers followed Mora from Connecticut.) Expectations are modest for Year 1. But we expect Mora to have CSU competing for the conference title by 2028.
Previously published content on the 2026 season:
Big Ten forecast
Big 12 forecast
Pac-12 schedule breakdown
Early top 25 rankings
Predictions for the college sports industry
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