Trump’s Iran ultimatum enters decisive stretch after State of the Union

President Donald Trump has drawn his line. Now the clock is running.

After publicly giving Iran roughly 10 days to 15 days to reach a nuclear agreement, Trump used his State of the Union address to make clear the deadline is backed by force. 

"I will never allow the world’s number one sponsor of terror … to have a nuclear weapon," he told lawmakers Tuesday night.

TRUMP GIVES IRAN 10-DAY ULTIMATUM, BUT EXPERTS SIGNAL TALKS MAY BE BUYING TIME FOR STRIKE

The president first outlined the short timeline Feb. 19, saying the world would know within "probably 10 days" whether Tehran was prepared to strike what he called a meaningful deal. 

"I would think that would be enough time — 10, 15 days, pretty much maximum," Trump said, warning that absent an agreement, "it’s going to be unfortunate for them."

On Tuesday, he reinforced the pressure from the House chamber, telling Congress negotiations are underway, but Iran has not met his core condition. 

"We are in negotiations with them," Trump said. "They want to make a deal, but we haven’t heard those secret words: ‘We will never have a nuclear weapon.'"

He also pointed back to the 2025 U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, describing Operation Midnight Hammer as having "obliterated Iran’s nuclear weapons program." 

After that operation, he said, Tehran was warned "to make no future attempts to rebuild its weapons program," adding that Iran is now "starting it all over again."

The combination of a defined diplomatic window and a public reminder of U.S. military action marks a sharper phase in the standoff, as talks in Geneva unfold under mounting pressure.

Trump has not detailed what specific action would follow if Iran refuses his terms. But he told reporters in mid-February that if a meaningful agreement does not materialize, "bad things will happen," and acknowledged he is considering further steps.

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With the State of the Union complete and the president’s timeline already in motion, the coming days are likely to determine whether the administration secures a nuclear concession — or shifts toward a more confrontational path in the Middle East.

The diplomatic ultimatum is underscored by the largest assembly of U.S. naval power in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. 

The world’s most advanced aircraft carrier, USS Gerald R. Ford, arrived at Souda Bay, Crete, Monday. The Ford joined USS Abraham Lincoln, which has been conducting 24-hour flight operations in the Arabian Sea since late January.

Between the two strike groups, the U.S. now commands a fleet of 14 major warships, including nine Arleigh Burke-class destroyers armed with Tomahawk cruise missiles.

Meanwhile, 12 U.S. F-22 Raptor stealth fighters touched down at Ovda Airbase in southern Israel. 

As national security analyst Joe Funderburke noted in the Small Wars Journal, "The F-22 is not a simple show-of-force aircraft. It is designed to suppress enemy air defenses and protect penetrating strike platforms like the B-2 Spirit bomber, the same combination used to devastate Iran’s deeply buried nuclear facilities at Fordow and Natanz nine months ago."

The president’s reminder of Operation Midnight Hammer — which utilized B-2 bombers to drop 30,000-pound "bunker buster" munitions — serves as the tactical blueprint for what follows the current deadline. 

While the 2025 operation was a "surgical" surprise strike, the current buildup suggests a far broader mission set, potentially due to Iran’s threat of an aggressive response. 

Iran’s response to Operation Midnight Hammer was measured and the U.S. had a warning. This time, Iran has vowed a more forceful response and says any U.S. troops operating in the Middle East could be open targets. 

Amid his sharper diplomatic timeline, Trump also asserted that Iranian authorities had killed some 32,000 protesters in weeks of demonstrations that began in early January — a number far above independent estimates and Tehran’s own death toll. 

"Just over the last couple of months with the protests, they’ve killed at least, it looks like, 32,000 protesters — 32,000 protesters in their own country," the president said. "They shot them and hung them." 

Administration officials have signaled that any agreement would require Iran to halt all uranium enrichment and provide verifiable guarantees that its program cannot be reconstituted — terms Iran repeatedly has objected to.

Both Washington and Iran appear to believe the other is bluffing. 

Trump has framed the timeline as a final opportunity for diplomacy backed by overwhelming force. Iranian leaders, meanwhile, have publicly dismissed U.S. threats and warned that any strike would trigger retaliation against American forces and regional allies.

Still, U.S. negotiators will meet with Iranian envoys once again in Geneva Thursday.