Three Things to Remember If U.S. Bombs Iran
Three Things to Remember If U.S. Bombs Iran
War was chosen, not inevitable.
The air and sea power that is massing near Iran is terrifying. The same aircraft carrier that was deployed to Venezuela is now on its way to Iran, where it will join a second aircraft carrier. They are accompanied by guided missile destroyers, cruisers, submarines, hundreds of fighter jets, and ballistic missile defense systems. Axios reports that “the Trump administration is closer to a major war in the Middle East than most Americans realize.”
Sometimes, U.S. President Donald Trump has set the red line by saying simply that Iran can have “NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS.” At other times, he has said that a deal must include zero enrichment in Iran. When asked why the U.S. is considering bombing Iran, though, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said, “There are many reasons.” But she listed none. She then said that Trump’s previous Operation Midnight Hammer mission had “totally obliterated Iran’s nuclear facilities.”
There are three things to remember if the U.S. goes to war with Iran: It was never about nuclear weapons, it was never about helping the Iranian people, and Iran was genuinely negotiating a diplomatic solution.
First: It was never about nuclear weapons. If it were, there would be no urgency because the White House claims to have obliterated Iran’s nuclear facilities.
More importantly, the U.S. does not believe Iran is building a nuclear weapon. The 2022 U.S. Department of Defense Nuclear Posture Review concludes that “Iran does not today possess a nuclear weapon and we currently believe it is not pursuing one.” That assessment was maintained in the 2025 Annual Threat Assessment, which “reflects the collective insights of the Intelligence Community,” and clearly states that U.S. intelligence “continue[s] to assess Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and that [Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei has not reauthorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003.”
And, if it were ever about nuclear weapons, then Trump would not have pulled out of the JCPOA nuclear agreement with Iran in his first term. That agreement successfully restricted Iran to enriching uranium to levels necessary for civilian use but insufficient for military use. Multiple consecutive International Atomic Energy Agency reports verified that Iran was completely and consistently in compliance with the commitments made under that agreement. The JCPOA nuclear agreement assured Iran would not build a nuclear bomb. If going to war with Iran were about nuclear weapons, Trump would not have pulled out of the deal.
Second: If the U.S. goes to war with Iran, it will not be to help the people of Iran. The U.S. has never been concerned with the people of Iran. If the U.S. were concerned with the welfare and wishes of the people of Iran, it would never have supported the coup that took out their democratically elected leader, Mohammad Mosaddegh, in 1953. It never would have installed the savage and repressive dictatorship of Shah Mohammad Pahlavi. It never would have supported the Shah’s murderous SAVAK secret police and their notorious torture chambers.
More recently, if the U.S. were concerned with helping the people of Iran, it would not use their suffering as the way to bring about that goal. The U.S. attempted to instigate a coup by bringing the Iranian people out to the streets in mass protest. But it brought them out into the streets by starving them.
Iranians took to the streets initially to protest a cost-of-living crisis largely brought on by American sanctions. It was U.S. policy to bring about its goal of regime change by causing economic suffering to the people of Iran. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent explained that “the Iranian currency was on the verge of collapse… President Trump ordered… maximum pressure on Iran. And it’s worked, because in December, their economy collapsed… and this is why the people took to the street. This is economic statecraft… Things are moving in a very positive way here.”
On February 5, Bessent again boasted of this deliberate policy. He told the Senate Banking Committee that “what we have done is created a dollar shortage in the country… The Iranian currency went into free fall, inflation exploded, and hence we have seen the Iranian people out on the street.”
Finally: If the U.S. bombs Iran, it will not be because Iran was unwilling to negotiate. Iran was willing to put itself under maximum inspections, to convert its stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium, cease high-level enrichment, and cap its enrichment at the 3.67 percent needed for a civilian energy program. Under a second proposed solution, Iran was potentially willing to limit their role in the enrichment cycle by becoming a member of a nuclear enrichment consortium. The consortium could include Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and perhaps others. Enrichment would be capped at the 3.67 percent required for civilian use and monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Most importantly, a consortium would allow Iran to enrich uranium but deny it access to the full enrichment process by distributing various roles in the process across different member states.
At the most recent round of talks, Iran reportedly indicated a willingness to compromise even further. Iranian officials told the New York Times that Iran was willing to dilute its stockpile of enriched uranium, suspend nuclear enrichment for three to five years, and then join the already proposed nuclear consortium. The head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Mohammad Eslami, has suggested that the dilution of Iran’s 60 percent enriched uranium was conditional on sanctions being lifted.
All of this is more than Iran has to do, since, as a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Iran has “the inalienable right to a civilian program that uses nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.” But this diplomatic willingness would satisfy Trump’s hard redline of no weapons and no ability to enrich uranium on its own.
There is a clear diplomatic path to peace with Iran. If that path is not taken, it will not be because Iran was unwilling to negotiate and compromise, it will not be because of U.S. concern for the well-being of the Iranian people, and it will not be because the U.S. prioritizes preventing Iran from building a bomb.
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