The Treaty That Climate Change Broke: Bangladesh’s Path To Water Survival – OpEd

Climate change has delivered the Ganges basin its worst droughts in 1,300 years, droughts well outside the range of natural climate variability, while atmospheric rivers now drive catastrophic floods that overwhelm all infrastructure. Research shows climate change has quadrupled extreme monsoon events, with atmospheric rivers contributing 73% of floods in the Ganga basin. The August 2024 floods, though not directly related to the Ganges Water Treaty, demonstrate this new reality: 5.8 million affected in Bangladesh, worst in 37 years, similar devastation upstream in India. The 1996 Ganges Water Treaty operates in a climate regime that no longer exists.

The treaty expires in 2027. But the real question is not whether to renew it. Will Bangladesh insist on a climate framework suited for today's realities, or settle for outdated provisions?

I write this having witnessed a major river delta die from sediment starvation. During postdoctoral research in Louisiana, I watched the Mississippi Delta lose nearly 1,900 square miles because engineered controls cut off sediment delivery. Now Bangladesh faces the same mechanism; upstream dams trapping the sediment that builds and maintains deltas, amplified by climate extremes that the treaty framework never anticipated and cannot address.

Climate Has Made the Treaty Obsolete

The evidence is unambiguous. Climate change has quadrupled extreme monsoons, and atmospheric rivers now cause 73% of floods in the Ganga basin. Dams on the Ganges, Teesta, and Gomati were designed for 20th century patterns. They cannot manage these events. Reservoirs fill faster than anticipated. Emergency releases become necessary.

August 2024 demonstrated this failure across the region. Floods in the Teesta, Gomati, and other river basins—not tied to the Ganges Treaty—highlight how outdated infrastructure fails to handle climate extremes.  In Bangladesh: 71 deaths, 5.8 million affected, $1.2 billion in damages. The Gomati River reached unprecedented levels in its 37-year record. Feni District saw flooding increase by 1,082% compared to 2022. India experienced similarly devastating flooding upstream.

This bilateral suffering reveals a fundamental truth: current infrastructure fails both nations simultaneously under climate conditions that did not exist when the treaty was negotiated. The 1996 framework assumes static climate. It allocates water for dry season (January-May) but has no provisions for managing monsoon extremes (June-September) that now overwhelm every system.

The Mississippi Delta: What Happens When You Ignore Sediment and Climate

During my postdoctoral research in basin analysis at Louisiana State University, I visited the delta with the world's leading delta experts studying the Mississippi River Delta. As a geologist, I immediately recognized the parallel to Bangladesh: massive sediment-laden rivers building deltas through distributary channels, dense human populations adapted to seasonal flooding, rich fisheries sustained by nutrient delivery.

But I also witnessed what happens when engineered controls sever sediment delivery while climate conditions change.

To prevent flooding, the Mississippi River was confined by large levees and channelized.  These prevented the river from delivering sediment to the delta. USGS documentation shows that Louisiana has lost about 1,900 square miles of land since the 1930s, nearly the size of Delaware.  According to a study published in Nature Sustainability, the delta exhibited growth prior to the construction of levees.  After levees eliminated sediment delivery, it began losing 7 square kilometers of land annually.

The mechanism is identical to what Bangladesh faces:

Mississippi: Levees prevent sediment distribution → delta starved → subsidence → land loss

Bangladesh: Upstream dams trap sediment → delta starved → subsidence → delta death

Louisiana is also experiencing climate change impacts—intensified hurricanes, sea-level rise, saltwater intrusion—that accelerate the collapse that sediment starvation initiated. The lesson is clear: sediment starvation plus climate change equals accelerated delta death.

The United States, with all its resources, scientific capacity, and engineering expertise, could not prevent Mississippi Delta collapse once sediment delivery was severed and climate began changing. Bangladesh won't prevent GBM delta collapse either without addressing both simultaneously.

The Rivers and Delta Research Centre reported in March 2025 that 79 out of 1,156 government-listed rivers in Bangladesh are dried up or dying.  The Ganges experiences 70-90% flow reduction during dry season. A comprehensive analysis reveals that 74% of 173 gauging stations across the basin are experiencing declines, with an average decrease of 17% per decade.

But here is what receives almost no attention in treaty discussions: sediment.

The Compound Crisis: Climate Extremes Meet Sediment Starvation

Rivers carry water and sediment. For deltaic nations, sediment is as essential as water. The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna system historically delivered approximately 1.7 billion tons of sediment annually to Bangladesh. This flux built the delta, compensated for natural subsidence, delivered nutrients, and sustained ecosystems.

According to research published in Nature Communications*, if all proposed upstream dams are constructed, sediment delivery is projected to decrease by an additional 15–80%. China's proposed Yarlung Tsangpo "Super Dam" alone threatens to trap approximately 50% of the Brahmaputra's sediment load.

The 1996 treaty contains zero provisions for sediment. No targets. No monitoring. No requirements.

Now climate change compounds this crisis in multiple ways:

Extreme events erode upstream areas faster, generating more sediment that enters reservoirs. Reservoirs fill faster, reducing storage capacity and forcing emergency releases during monsoon peaks—creating catastrophic floods like those experienced across the region in August 2024.

Meanwhile, sediment that should build Bangladesh's delta remains trapped. Without new sediment being added, the delta sinks at a rate of 5–7 mm each year (source).  A global assessment determined that 18 out of 40 major deltas are subsiding at rates exceeding sea-level rise.  The GBM delta faces potentially doubled impacts by 2100.

Water starvation forces Bangladesh to extract 32 cubic kilometers of groundwater annually -90% for irrigation— with aquifer levels in the Ganges-Brahmaputra basin falling 15-20 mm per year, making it one of the world's most rapidly depleting aquifer systems. This accelerates subsidence. Saltwater has moved 15-20 kilometers farther inland, and salinity levels have risen by 64% between 1973 and 2019.  Agricultural areas that cultivated rice for centuries have transitioned into saline wastelands.

Climate change amplifies every dimension while sediment starvation removes resilience. This is a compound system crisis.

What Climate Adaptation Requires

The 2027 treaty expiration is not an opportunity for incremental improvements. It is the moment to demand a framework designed for climate reality. The following elements are essential—not as requests, but as climate adaptation requirements:

1. Sediment Management: A Climate Necessity

India benefits from sediment bypass as much as Bangladesh. Climate-induced extreme events are accelerating sediment accumulation in dam reservoirs, thereby diminishing storage capacity. Sediment bypass operations during monsoon would extend dam operational lifespans, maintain generating capacity, and deliver the sediment Bangladesh requires for delta survival, a genuine win-win solution.

This is not a Bangladesh demand. This is climate adaptation that both nations require as their infrastructure faces conditions it was not designed for.

2. Atmospheric River Integration

Dam operations must be coordinated with atmospheric river forecasting. Climate science predicts such events days in advance. Reservoir management must use this information to pre-release water before atmospheric rivers arrive, preventing the catastrophic emergency releases that contributed to the region's August 2024 devastation.

The treaty must require real-time hydrological and climate data sharing—not as diplomatic courtesy but as operational necessity for climate-adapted infrastructure management.

3. Infrastructure for 21st Century Climate

All existing infrastructure must be evaluated against 21st century climate data, not 20th century design standards. Spillway capacity, reservoir storage, flood protection systems—all assumed static climate. Climate change invalidates those assumptions.

The treaty must establish mechanisms for continuous infrastructure assessment and adaptation as climate conditions continue changing. What works today may be inadequate in five years.

4. Integrated Water-Sediment-Groundwater Management

Bangladesh must bring engineering solutions to negotiations. New channels designed on natural distributary patterns can serve triple purpose: distributing sediment across the delta, delivering surface water for irrigation to reduce groundwater extraction pressure, and functioning as groundwater recharge zones during monsoon flows.

This integrated approach, developed from Bangladesh's own fluvial geology expertise, addresses the compound crisis simultaneously. Surface water restoration reduces the desperate 32 km³ annual groundwater extraction that accelerates subsidence.

5. Enforcement Mechanisms

My 30 years implementing US federal environmental programs demonstrated one consistent pattern: voluntary frameworks achieve minimal results; enforceable mandates with penalties drive actual change. The 1996 treaty's voluntary framework has produced 79 dead rivers in 30 years. Climate change makes voluntary approaches even less viable—the window for action shrinks while risks accelerate.

6. Basin-Wide Climate Framework

Not just the Ganges. Not just dry season. Not just water allocation. The framework must address all major tributaries year-round, include the Brahmaputra and Meghna, establish China engagement on Yarlung Tsangpo impacts, and recognize that climate change affects the entire basin simultaneously.

Why Action Cannot Wait

Climate change accelerates. According to recent data, 74% of stations in the Ganga basin are experiencing a decline of 17% per decade prior to the completion of the planned dam cascade. China's proposed mega dam would eliminate 50% of Brahmaputra sediment. Each year of delay means more sediment trapped, more subsidence, more vulnerable populations.

The Mississippi Delta proves that once sediment starvation advances too far, collapse becomes irreversible. The GBM delta has not reached that point—yet. But the trajectory is clear and climate change accelerates everything.

The August 2024 floods, occurring in river basins beyond the Ganges Treaty's scope, validated what climate science predicted: infrastructure designed for historical patterns fails catastrophically under 21st century extremes. These atmospheric river events will intensify and occur more frequently.

The Path to Water Survival

Climate scientists and water experts throughout Bangladesh and the region recognize that the 1996 framework cannot address 21st century realities. The evidence converges from multiple sources: climate research showing quadrupled extreme events, sediment studies documenting catastrophic reduction, the Mississippi Delta precedent proving the mechanism, August 2024 demonstrating infrastructure failure, and 79 dead rivers validating 30 years of treaty inadequacy.

The choice Bangladesh faces in 2027 is binary: Negotiate for a climate-adapted framework that addresses water, sediment, infrastructure transformation, and enforcement—or accept another generation of provisions designed for weather patterns that no longer exist while the delta sinks and rivers die.

The Mississippi Delta warns us: sediment starvation plus climate change equals accelerated collapse. The United States couldn't prevent it. Bangladesh can still prevent GBM delta collapse, but only with a treaty framework that acknowledges climate has changed the rules.

You cannot sustain what you are destroying. But through climate-adapted treaty transformation, enforceable sediment management, practical engineering solutions, and recognition that both nations face infrastructure failure under new climate realities, you can restore what you are willing to fight for.

Climate change has broken the 1996 treaty. The 2027 renewal enables us to build a framework suited to current climate conditions, rather than past diplomatic expectations. 

 REFERENCES

1. Fahad, A. A., et al. (2024). Climate change quadruples flood-causing extreme monsoon rainfall events. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 150(758), 547-564. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4645

2. Thapa, K., et al. (2023). Atmospheric rivers contribute to Himalayan hydrology and floods. Journal of Climate, 36(23), 8159-8180. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0599.1

3. RDRC (2025). 79 rivers dead or on deathbed. The Daily Star, March 20, 2025. https://www.thedailystar.net/news/bangladesh/news/79-rivers-dead-or-deathbed-3852851

4. Salil, S. et al. (2025). Ganges basin peak flows fall 17% per decade.   July 7, 2025. https://phys.org/news/2025-07-ganges-basin-peak-fall-decade.html

5. Mississippi River Delta Coalition (2017). Coastal Land Loss in the Mississippi River Delta. https://mississippiriverdelta.org/our-coastal-crisis/land-loss/

6. Edmonds, D. A., et al. (2023). Land loss due to human-altered sediment budget in the Mississippi River Delta. Nature Sustainability. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01081-0

7. Goodbred, S. L., et al. (2023). Sediment delivery to sustain the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta under climate change and anthropogenic impacts. Nature Communications, 14, Article 2429. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38057-9

8. Becker, M., et al. (2020). Water level changes, subsidence, and sea level rise in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta. PNAS, 117(4), 1867-1876. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1912921117

9. Shirzaei, M. et al. (2026). Global assessment of contemporary land subsidence in major river deltas. Nature, January 14, 2026. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09928-6

10. Haq, S. M. A., et al. (2024). What drives changes in surface water salinity in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta? *Frontiers in Water, 6, Article 1220540. https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2024.1220540

11. Sahana, M. (2025). The Ganges River is drying faster than ever – here's what it means for the region and the world. The Conversation, September 26, 2025.