The Best and Worst of Trump 2.0 Polls and the Implications for the Midterms

As the midterms draw nearer, every evaluation of President Trump is viewed as a predictor of how people will vote. Claims that Trump has only a 39 percent approval rating are concerning because they suggest Republicans could lose their congressional majority.

Historically, the 50 percent approval mark has acted as a break-even point. Presidents below 50 percent have seen their party lose an average of 37 House seats in the midterms, while presidents above that mark still usually lose seats, but by a much smaller margin, roughly 14 seats.

Since World War II, only two presidents saw their party gain House seats during a midterm election, Bill Clinton in 1998 and George W. Bush in 2002, and both had approval ratings above 60 percent.

However, many major polls are conducted by mainstream media outlets and think tanks that are biased against Trump. Just as in his two upset presidential victories, the reality at the ballot box may not match polling results.

A Washington Post–ABC News–Ipsos poll of more than 2,300 Americans asked respondents to name the best and worst things President Trump has done since January 2025.

About 39 percent approved of his job performance and were asked to cite his best actions, while 60 percent who disapproved were asked to name his worst actions.

The results of this poll should be taken with caution and likely do not represent the true percentage of the electorate that approve or disapprove of President Trump. Nor does it predict the outcome of the midterms.

As with any poll, respondents react to questions framed by pollsters and select from limited options.

When it comes to voting in the midterms, however, they will choose between specific candidates, neither of whom will be Trump.

Asking whether people are satisfied with Trump’s performance is not the same as asking whether they would choose Kamala over Trump for president or a Democrat over a Republican in a congressional race.

Even Trump supporters may be unhappy with a soft job market or the fact that although inflation has receded and gas prices are lower than they were, they are not as low as during the first three years of Trump’s first term. That does not mean they believe Democrats would do a better job.

All polling data is imperfect, and given what many see as anti-Trump bias in parts of the media, there are several reasons the numbers may not tell the full story. No poll is exact.

The Washington Post–ABC News–Ipsos poll carries a margin of error of about plus or minus two to three percentage points, meaning a reported 39 percent approval rating could statistically be as high as 42 percent.

That figure is closer to other published data, including the RealClearPolitics average at 42.5 percent approval, Ballotpedia at 42.0 percent, and the Napolitan News Service at 49 percent.

Mainstream media outlets often emphasize the poll with the most dramatic headline, while aggregate averages tend to show a slightly higher and more stable number.

It is also important to distinguish between surveys of all adults and those of registered or likely voters. The ABC poll surveyed 2,300 U.S. adults, but approval ratings are often higher among registered or likely voters.

Historically, Republicans tend to perform better among those who actually turn out to vote than among the broader adult population.

Another factor is a trust gap visible in February 2026 polling. While some respondents say they disapprove of President Trump’s overall job performance, they still trust him more than Democrats on specific issues.

For example, even with a 39 percent overall approval rating, 38 percent say they trust Trump on immigration compared to 34 percent for Democrats.

On the cost of living, he remains in a statistical dead heat with the opposition, 32 percent to 31 percent. This suggests that disapproval does not necessarily mean voters prefer the other side.

There is also a long-standing debate about partisan weighting and the so-called shy voter effect.

If a survey sample includes slightly more Democrats than exist in the actual electorate, or fewer independents who lean Republican, the results can skew lower. Some Trump supporters may also be less likely to engage with pollsters from organizations they view as hostile.

Pew Research data from 2025–2026 shows that 69 percent of Democrats trust national news organizations, compared to a much smaller share of Republicans.

Because Republicans are less likely to trust or engage with mainstream media, they may be less inclined to answer surveys from outlets such as ABC News or The Washington Post. This is commonly referred to as non-response bias.

The ABC poll showed that among Trump supporters, immigration dominated the responses. Seventy-nine percent cited border security or deportations as his best action.

The economy ranked second at 45 percent, including general economic management, tariffs, and inflation. Smaller numbers mentioned tax cuts and the One Big Beautiful Bill, cuts to federal spending and the workforce, and international peace efforts.

Among Trump’s opponents, immigration also topped the list as his worst action. Fifty-seven percent cited deportations or border enforcement negatively.

The economy followed at 33 percent, with most specifically criticizing tariffs. Twenty-two percent cited corruption, constitutional violations, or politicization of the Justice Department, while others mentioned poor international relations, the Epstein files, racism, agency mismanagement, or military actions.

The poll found sharp ideological divides. Very conservative and somewhat conservative Trump supporters were far more likely than moderates to praise immigration policy.

Among critics, very liberal respondents were most likely to condemn it. Younger Americans who disapproved of Trump were especially likely to cite immigration as his worst action.

Overall, Trump’s approval on immigration declined over the past year, falling from 50 percent to 40 percent.

The survey was conducted Feb. 12–17, 2026, among a nationally representative panel, with margins of error ranging from about 2.7 to 3.4 percentage points depending on subgroup.

On many issues, those who disapprove are not evaluating Trump’s performance. For example, his performance on immigration has been stellar, better than any president in history.

However, people disapprove for ideological reasons and because they hate Trump.

The economy is an area where there can be debate, with arguments for and against strong performance, but Trump Derangement Syndrome is real, and for some people, no matter how good Trump’s policies are, if he cured cancer, they would still disapprove.

Another issue is media framing. Much coverage of his policies is negative and downplays, dismisses, or ignores successes.

People who rely only on mainstream media and do not do their own research may be unaware of the successes Trump has brought to the nation, including record foreign direct investment, record sales of U.S. Treasuries, record tariff revenue, dramatically improved inflation and gasoline prices, reduced external financial commitments to NATO, the EU, and transnational organizations, and a secure border.

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