Capitol agenda: Trump’s SOTU clouded by chaos

President Donald Trump is heading into Tuesday’s State of the Union facing a messy Capitol Hill backdrop: a Supreme Court smackdown of his global tariffs, fresh GOP anxiety over the political fallout and a DHS funding standoff that’s revealing chaos within his own administration.

Add in a snowstorm scrambling the House and Senate schedule — postponing House votes on aviation safety legislation and delaying a key farm bill markup — and lawmakers are facing a compressed, high-stakes week.

Here’s what we’re watching:

— Trump's address: Attendance could be thin as lawmakers try to get back to Washington after a major snow storm on the East Coast. Many Democrats had already planned to boycott.

Several Republicans told POLITICO they hope Trump will focus on affordability and economic issues and highlight the megabill tax cuts.

Trump critics on both sides of the aisle plan to make statements with their SOTU guests. Several Democrats are bringing individuals impacted by rising health care costs and the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) is bringing his wife, Carolyn Moffa, who has been a target of attacks from Trump.

“Trump thought it was appropriate to include her in two of his broadsides,” Massie said. “So I thought it would be appropriate to invite her to his speech.”

— Tariff fallout: After the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s sweeping global tariffs Friday — a move cheered by a number of GOP lawmakers — Hill Republicans are now in a tough position as Democrats hope to put them on the record voting for or against the new 15 percent global tariffs the president announced in response.

The new tariffs expire after 150 days and Congress will have to vote to extend them — something Republicans privately say they won’t have the support to do.

Among the Republicans who have tough decisions to make are farm state lawmakers who had been pressing the administration for carveouts in Trump’s tariffs but voted in support of his Canada tariffs. They got a taste of what could happen if they cross Trump, who over the weekend rescinded his endorsement of Rep. Jeff Hurd (R-Colo.) and endorsed his GOP challenger.

Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), one of the six Republicans who voted to rebuke Trump’s Canada tariffs two weeks ago, said the levies are “terrible politics for Republicans” and that Trump’s latest move “will also fail in the courts.”

“President Trump is putting a ball and chain” on the GOP in the midterms, Bacon told POLITICO. “I hate seeing it.”

— DHS stalemate: The DHS shutdown appeared to get real over the weekend when the department said it would suspend TSA PreCheck and other airport security services, but then quickly reversed course “based off of conversations the secretary had with the White House and TSA,” according to the Washington Post. Officials still plan to pause airport courtesy escorts for members of Congress as well as Global Entry.

The White House and Democrats are entering the week without substantial public evidence of progress on an agreement to fund DHS and establish immigration enforcement guardrails. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said Sunday that the administration is “choosing to inflict pain on the public instead of adopting common sense ICE reforms.”

What else we’re watching:  

House Rules will take up two bills to roll back Biden-era efficiency standards at 4 p.m. 

Meredith Lee Hill contributed to this report.