Shōta Imanaga Will Bounce Back In a Big Way
One of the biggest disappointments down the stretch of the 2025 season for the Cubs was how Shōta Imanaga seemingly lost his luster on the mound. Cubs management was so aware of just how bad the left-handed pitcher was that they made the decision to not use Imanaga at all in the deciding Game 5 of the NLDS. However, Craig Counsell shared some insight this week that should give fans plenty of optimism for a big bounce back year for Imanaga.
It may look too simple on the surface and we’re not talking about a guy who throws 100 mph, but there is no doubt that Imanaga just didn’t throw as hard in 2025 as he did in his first year in the majors with the Cubs in 2024. During his rookie season in MLB, Imanaga recorded a 2.91 ERA in 29 starts with an average fastball velocity of 91.9 mph. The lefty posted a 25.1 K% in 173.1 innings as he was able to deceive hitters by combining fastballs up and out of the strike zone with a nasty splitter that kept opponents off balance.
Yet, in 2025, Imanaga’s fastball velocity declined. It may not look like a major decrease, but going from an average fastball velocity of 91.9 mph down to 90.8 mph was enormous for Imanaga and for hitters. Imanaga ended 2025, with a 3.73 ERA, while his strikeout rate tumbled down to 20.6%. He also allowed 31 home runs 144.2 innings of work. That came out to the highest home run rate per nine innings in MLB.
Imanaga’s velocity was normal early in the season, but Counsell pointed out how the pitcher’s hamstring injury led to mechanical issues that resulted in the left-handed starter not throwing as hard as he had before.
First 8 starts March 18 through May 4
3/18: 92.6 mph
3/29: 92.1 mph
4/4: 90.3 mph
4/9: 90.2 mph
4/15: 90.7 mph
4/22: 91.4 mph
4/29: 91.4 mph
5/4: 91.2 mph
average velocity 91.2 mph
Injured list from May 5 through June 25
7 Starts June 26 Through July 31
6/26: 90.7 mph
7/2: 90.5 mph
7/8: 89.6 mph
7/13: 90.5 mph
7/19: 90.8 mph
7/25: 89.1 mph
7/30: 90.7 mph
average velocity 90.3mph
Last 10 starts Aug.1 through Sept.
8/5: 91.0 mph
8/10: 91.1 mph
8/16: 90.6 mph
8/21: 91.2 mph
8/28: 90.8 mph
9/2: 91.1 mph
9/8: 90.8 mph
9/14: 91.1 mph
9/19: 91.1 mph
9/25: 90.7 mph
average velocity 90.9 mph
For the majority of the season Imanaga couldn’t get his fastball up to 91 mph and that velocity took a bigger dip after the hamstring issues in May. Again, you may think a one mile per hour difference isn’t meaningful, but the numbers show otherwise. So, it’s good to see that at least early on spring training Imanaga is back to throwing harder, which should help him bounce back in 2026.
Counsell discusses Imanaga’s velocity and the mechanical issues from 2025 at the start of his Thursday media session shown below.