How This Scouting Combine Drill Will Pinpoint The Bears’ Likely 1st Round Target
Based on all the information we have to date, the Chicago Bears seem to be trending in a specific direction regarding their 25th overall pick in the 1st round this April. Left tackle and safety are both possibilities given their uncertainty due to injuries or free agency. However, every sign points to the team going after a top defensive lineman at that spot. It leans into the strength of this draft class, and Dennis Allen needs a dynamic option. It doesn’t matter if it’s inside or outside.
Obviously, it’s easy to say that. It is much harder to determine which direction the Bears go. Experts will say they don’t even know yet. That is because the team doesn’t yet have all the information. A major step in that process starts next Monday when over 300 players convene in Indianapolis for the scouting combine. The drills in that event often play a big part in helping teams set their boards, both through brief interviews conducted and the athletic testing.
The problem is figuring out which defensive players Dennis Allen will prioritize in the draft. Based on the historical data available from his previous stops, one drill stands out above the others.
The 10-yard split.
The 10-yard split will be a must-watch for the Chicago Bears.
Everybody knows the hottest event at the combine is the 40-yard dash, which tests the raw speed of every prospect. However, many coaches look to the 10-yard split for the bigger guys there (offensive and defensive linemen) because it’s a great way to measure their explosiveness. Allen seems to have this stat circled because it paints a clear picture of what he likes in the draft. Since 2011, no 1st round edge rusher his team drafted has posted a split of 1.70 or higher. For defensive tackles, it has never gone above 1.80.
| Player | Year | Round | Team | Position | 10-Yard Split (sec) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Von Miller | 2011 | 1 | Broncos | LB/DE | 1.57 |
| Khalil Mack | 2014 | 1 | Raiders | LB/DE | 1.56 |
| Sheldon Rankins | 2016 | 1 | Saints | DT | 1.76 |
| Marcus Davenport | 2018 | 1 | Saints | DE | 1.62 |
| Payton Turner | 2021 | 1 | Saints | DE | 1.67 |
| Bryan Bresee | 2023 | 1 | Saints | DT | 1.71 |
| Hau’oli Kikaha | 2015 | 2 | Saints | DE/LB | 1.63 |
| Isaiah Foskey | 2023 | 2 | Saints | DE | 1.66 |
| Trey Hendrickson | 2017 | 3 | Saints | DE | 1.59 |
| Jack Crawford | 2012 | 5 | Raiders | DE | 1.65 |
| Christo Bilukidi | 2012 | 6 | Raiders | DE | 1.70 |
| Stacy McGee | 2013 | 6 | Raiders | DT | 1.78 |
| Jordan Jackson | 2022 | 6 | Saints | DT | 1.76 |
| Khristian Boyd | 2024 | 6 | Saints | DT | 1.75 |
| David Bass | 2013 | 7 | Raiders | DE | 1.65 |
That list tells you what to look for pretty consistently. If an edge rusher posts a split in the 1.5 range, they will likely become a very good player in the NFL. Miller, Mack, and Hendrickson all became Pro Bowlers. For defensive tackles, it is the 1.6 range, though Allen has never had the benefit of landing such a player. Bresee was the closest with his 1.71, and he became a pretty good player in his brief time with the coach. It shows you that Allen has the right idea with monitoring those times.
Actual times are still to come, but projections paint a picture.
As of right now, there are only two edge rushers with 1st round grade believed capable of reaching that sub-1.60 mark. One is Arvell Reese of Ohio State, and the other is David Bailey of Texas Tech. Unfortunately for the Chicago Bears, both are expected to be top 10 picks. At defensive tackle, Peter Woods of Clemson is the one to watch. Estimates have him timing in the mid-1.60 range. From there, you’re getting mostly guys expected in the high 1.6 to mid-1.70 range.
| Player | Position | School | Projected 1st Rd Pick | Projected 10-Yard Split (Sec) | Scouting Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rueben Bain Jr. | EDGE | Miami | Top 10 | 1.62 – 1.65 | Elite “burst and hand violence”. |
| David Bailey | EDGE | Texas Tech | Top 5 | 1.60 – 1.63 | Led nation in PFF pass-rush grade (93.8). |
| Arvell Reese | EDGE/LB | Ohio State | Top 5 | 1.58 – 1.62 | Described as the “best overall player” in some boards. |
| Peter Woods | DT | Clemson | Mid-Late 1st | 1.66 – 1.69 | Massive (315 lbs) with “one of a kind” athletic profile. |
| Keldric Faulk | EDGE | Auburn | Mid 1st | 1.65 – 1.68 | “Freaky talent” at 6’6″, 285 lbs. |
| Caleb Banks | DT | Florida | Mid-Late 1st | 1.75 – 1.80 | High-end interior movement rating (85.7). |
| Christen Miller | DT | Georgia | Late 1st | 1.72 – 1.76 | Rare “twitch” for a 310-pound defensive tackle. |
| Akheem Mesidor | EDGE | Miami | Late 1st | 1.64 – 1.68 | High-volume true pass-rush producer. |
| Zion Young | EDGE | Missouri | Late 1st | 1.66 – 1.70 | Emerging riser in recent ESPN mock projections. |
Out of the 1st round? There will be some interesting names to watch. Tennessee edge rusher Joshua Josephs and Penn State defensive tackle Zane Durant are expected to test well. Both were productive in college. If they clear those respective barriers, they could be in play for the Bears on day two of action. There is no question that the scouting combine will be a fascinating watch when the defensive linemen get going. They are scheduled to go on February 26th.