The shale revolution made LNG a strategic asset—policy should expand supply, not constrain America’s energy advantage.

If you ask the average person what the biggest technology breakthrough since the turn of the century has been, the smartphone is a safe bet for the most common answer. Recency bias could lead to some artificial intelligence (AI) responses. Unless you’re in the business or completely fixated with Landman, it’s unclear how many folks are saying the Shale Revolution. 

Yet, the development of smart drilling turned America into an energy powerhouse, lowered energy bills for families and businesses, and strengthened America’s geopolitical leverage by becoming the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter. Politics and policy have already gotten in the way of maximizing America’s energy advantage. We shouldn’t let it happen again. 

Liquified Natural Gas by the Numbers 

The numbers behind the shale boom and resulting LNG exports are nothing short of astounding. In 2009, the US surpassed Russia to become the world’s largest natural gas producer. America now produces roughly 40 percent morenatural gas than Russia, and if the top three US basins were countries, they would rank among the top 10 producers. As a result, households have saved significantly on their energy bills. Because energy is required for nearly everything we make and do, economy-wide analyses have consistently found that total household savings of $1,000 or more per year.

At the same time, exports grew significantly, driving economic growth domestically and supporting American allies abroad. Set to be a net importer, the shale boom flipped the script entirely, as the United States moved from a marginal exporter to the top global position in roughly a decade. Last year, the United States became the first country ever to export more than 10 million tons of LNG in a single month. 

As Europe finally makes a concerted push to rid its dependence on Russian gas once and for all, the United States has become the indispensable supplier. More than half (53 percent) of US LNG exports went to European importers in 2024, while 33 percent went to Asia. 

Domestically, the LNG export sector has now grown to support more than 270,000 American jobs and has generated roughly $400 billion in cumulative GDP from 2016 to 2024. Over the next 15 years, the industry could add another 100,000 jobs and add $1.3 trillion to the economy.  While market dynamics will influence how robust America’s LNG market grows, policy and politics shouldn’t stand in its way. 

Assessing LNG’s Impact on Household Prices

Recent increases in natural gas prices and electric bills have raised fears that excessive exports are bad because they will raise prices for American households and businesses. This is not a new concern; energy-intensive industries first raised it when LNG exports began climbing. More than a decade later, the argument still misses the mark and needs additional context. 

Everything else being equal, increased demand from foreign customers will raise prices, albeit modestly. A March 2024 Energy Ventures analysis showed that the six-month average Henry Hub natural gas price at the beginning of 2023 was the lowest in 35 years, as exports reached record levels. 

Even under scenarios with substantial export growth, the Department of Energy (DOE) estimates residential gas prices would rise only a few percentage points over the long term. DOE modeling estimates residential natural gas prices to be only 4 percent higher in 2050, even if LNG exports roughly double in the next quarter century. 

The reason is straightforward: America’s highly responsive shale supply has largely kept pace with export demand, helping preserve the country’s structural price advantage. In fact, the US Energy Information Administration projectsnatural gas production will reach record highs over the next two years. Importantly, LNG terminals take time to permit and build. Due to lengthy construction timelines and long-term financing and contract structures, there is a significant lead time before the LNG reaches the market.

American consumers will benefit in other overlooked ways. Production and transportation costs are significant expenditures for businesses, especially energy-intensive ones. If foreign countries import cheaper energy, and their production costs fall, so will the prices of the goods that Americans import, as part of that saving will be passed on. Prices would fall even more if we got rid of the tariffs, but that’s a story for a different day. The bigger lesson is that abundant, affordable energy, wherever it is produced, tends to put downward pressure on traded-goods prices worldwide.

The steady expansion of exports from major suppliers such as Qatar and Australia is a net positive for American consumers and producers alike. More molecules on the global market help keep international prices in check, reduce volatility, and meet rising demand. That growing demand ultimately plays to the United States’ strengths. Additional global supply helps stabilize markets and builds confidence among buyers to sign long-term contracts. When customers are looking for reliable, low-emission, and competitively priced supplies, the United States is exceptionally well-positioned to remain a global leader.

Lean Into Abundance, Not Degrowth

A more concerning trend is emerging that extends beyond LNG exports. The prevailing view is that the best way to address higher prices is to curb demand and restrict market access. Whether it was President Joe Biden’s pause on LNG exports to study the price impact of exports or recent proposals for data center moratoriums, policymakers should not take the easy way out. Rather, the policy objective should be to ensure resource adequacy and empower the market to respond efficiently to price signals. There’s little economic or environmental rationale for the northeast to use more oil for electricity in the last few weeks than since 2010, resulting in higher costs and higher emissions. Or for New England to import LNG from Trinidad and Tobago. Or for US manufacturers that rely on natural gas as an input or feedstock, to be cut off and have to close for days or weeks. Yet resistance to expanding pipeline capacity has led to all these outcomes. 

The solution is to expand investment, construction, and supply, and empower the private sector to respond to price signals. By addressing the regulatory bottlenecks and enacting permitting reform for all types of energy infrastructure, Congress can provide the certainty and efficiency to get economic projects into construction and operation. 

For too long, countries and actors that are hostile to American interests have weaponized energy for political gain. America’s ascendance to energy dominance, including a robust export market, has significantly undercut that ability. Restricting our ability to develop, transport, and export our natural resources would be a massive self-inflicted wound. 

About the Author: Nick Loris

Nick Loris is the executive vice president of Policy at C3 Solutions. Loris studies and writes on topics related to energy and climate policies, including natural resource extraction, energy subsidies, nuclear energy, renewable power, energy efficiency, as well as the ways in which markets will improve the environment, reduce emissions, and better adapt to a changing climate.

The post LNG Exports Are an Economic and National Security Asset. Don’t Limit Them appeared first on The National Interest.