PHIL FLYNN: To win the AI race, America must unleash energy dominance or fall
PROGRAMMING ALERT: Jackie DeAngelis hosts a special one-hour program: "Fox Business In Depth: Reenergizing America" on Feb. 18 at 8 PM ET/5 PM PT. Jackie and a panel of experts, newsmakers, and FBN correspondents break down the progress and headwinds in securing America’s energy future.
We are on the precipice of the greatest economic and technological transformation in human history: the AI revolution. This race will not be won without critical minerals, metals and energy dominance — and U.S. energy will be key to winning the race for the future.
In fact, history shows us that the time is now. This is the challenge of our age. When we look back at the Industrial Revolution, one of the most important commodities was energy — coal and oil. Today, you could almost argue that critical minerals such as copper may be just as important to the future of the economy as oil and gas. They are deeply intertwined, but ultimately it comes down to electricity — and an all-hands-on-deck U.S. energy strategy to produce it.
For the first time in human history, we can convert electricity into intelligence. As Interior Secretary Doug Burgum has noted, this shift makes the AI race the "Manhattan Project of our time" — a defining contest for national security, economic power and military advantage.
Whoever dominates AI will shape the future, and the U.S. must lead — not just in innovation, but in the raw materials that power it.
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Electricity is the lifeblood of AI, and U.S. energy is essential to meet the massive computational demands required to train AI models, process data and perform trillions of calculations per second. Training a single large language model can require thousands of GPUs operating for months, with cooling systems alone consuming up to 40% of the electricity. Without reliable, abundant power, AI progress would halt, and our adversaries would gain an advantage.
Oil plays a key indirect role in supporting AI through the global energy system. While renewables expand, oil — and especially natural gas — deliver reliable baseload electricity to prevent blackouts that AI data centers cannot tolerate.
Companies like ExxonMobil supply natural gas for on-site power plants, sometimes with carbon capture. Petrochemicals derived from oil are also vital for hardware components such as server plastics and cables. In a symbiotic twist, AI optimizes oil exploration and recovery, potentially unlocking vast additional reserves — even as oil fuels AI’s growing energy demand.
AI’s electricity demands are surging due to rapid data center growth. Global data centers consumed around 415 terawatt-hours in 2024 — about 1.5% of worldwide electricity — and projections show that figure could double to roughly 945 terawatt-hours by 2030 in base-case scenarios from the International Energy Agency, driven primarily by AI. Some estimates range from 1,000 to 1,600 terawatt-hours globally.
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In the U.S., data centers used about 4.4% of electricity in 2023 and could rise to between 6.7% and 12% by 2028. Power demand could reach 106 gigawatts by 2035, up sharply from prior forecasts. To lead in AI requires flexible grids, aggressive renewable scaling and hybrid fossil fuel solutions such as natural gas to fill gaps, though efficiency gains may temper long-term peaks.
History proves that game-changing innovations do more than boost productivity — they rewrite the rules of wealth creation. The Industrial Revolution unleashed mechanized production, urbanization and global trade, creating unprecedented prosperity. The Internet Revolution democratized information and commerce, birthing trillion-dollar tech giants and connecting billions.
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Now AI stands to push us further — boldly into uncharted territory. Big Tech is already pouring massive resources into it. In February 2026, Amazon announced plans to spend $200 billion on AI infrastructure, chips and robotics. Overall, major players are on track to invest around $650 billion in AI-related data centers, advanced chips and the energy backbone needed to power them in 2026 alone.
This surge is not just about economic growth — it is existential for U.S. military capability and national security. We must maintain our edge in AI to protect life, liberty, property and the pursuit of happiness.
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Failure means adversaries like China could turn the technology against us, much as the space race defined the 1960s. President John F. Kennedy’s call to go to the moon — "not because it is easy, but because it is hard" — echoes today. We choose this challenge because the stakes demand that we win.
China has spent decades building an iron grip on critical minerals. It controls an estimated 60% to 70% of global rare earth mining, 90% to 94% of refining and processing, and about 93% of permanent magnets essential for AI, defense technology and advanced systems. Rare earths are not truly rare — but securing and mining them is difficult. As the pandemic showed, when one nation dominates the supply chain, it can weaponize it.
The Trump administration is acting decisively with a clear blueprint to rebuild America’s supply chains. Project Vault, a landmark initiative, creates a strategic reserve for critical minerals — akin to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but for the materials powering AI and defense. Backed by a record $10 billion loan from the U.S. Export-Import Bank and nearly $1.67 billion in private investment, the nearly $12 billion effort aims to shield manufacturers from supply shocks, ramp up domestic production and fuel the next great leap forward.
Controlling these minerals is not optional — it is essential to staying ahead economically and ensuring national security for Americans. Whoever dominates this space can wield it for good or ill. With our values of free markets, ingenuity and individual liberty, the United States is uniquely positioned to succeed.
For traders and investors, the implications are already playing out. Record highs in metals such as silver, gold, copper, platinum and palladium reflect the market’s recognition of this shift. Breakthroughs in pharmaceuticals, consumer products and other sectors will accelerate at unprecedented speed — because now intelligence is not just human; it is powered by the minerals and energy we secure today.
This is more than a commodities story — it is the foundation of America’s destiny in the AI era. The time to act is now.
Phil Flynn joined FOX Business Network (FBN) in 2008 as a contributor and currently provides market analysis specializing in the energy sector across the network and FOXBusiness.com. He is based in Chicago where he frequently reports live from FBN’s Chicago bureau at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Click here to read more.