Why Raptors must stop winging it and prioritize Walter
The Toronto Raptors entered this season with a log jam on the wing. Ja’Kobe Walter, Gradey Dick, Ochai Agbaji and Jamison Battle were all set to compete for a couple rotation spots. In theory, it was a good thing. A little healthy competition to fuel the fire between the Raptors’ prospective rotation pieces.
It hasn’t exactly panned out. No one from the group has stepped forward and fully seized the role. The greatest clarity was provided by the offloading of Agbaji’s salary for the cost of a second-round draft pick.
Despite his small-sample success, Battle still appears to be on the outside looking in, considering his low minute totals, recent DNP-CDs, and Darko Rajaković calling him a “specialist.” Gradey Dick … well, Dick entered the league with the presumption attached that he’d be an above-average shooter at minimum. Here at Raptors Republic we thought he’d be more than just a shooter. Funny enough, some of the “more” is there, but the shooting isn’t, and that’s just a nonstarter.
That leaves us with Walter, who still has a marginal lead in the race for the Raptors’ ninth rotation spot and the bulk of the backup wing minutes. His sticky on-ball defence and quiet, repeatable shooting mechanics provide a solid floor, and if he’s able to put together a strong run of play over the final third of the season, he could be an important player for these Raptors.
At the time of Walter’s recent hip pointer injury, he was the obvious frontrunner in this competition for wing minutes off the bench. After a slow start, he’d averaged 20 minutes, 7.5 points and 39 percent from 3 over nearly two months after breaking out mid-November – all while being one of Toronto’s best point-of-attack defenders. While it didn’t come with a ton of flash, it’s the baseline the Raptors need from this spot. It seemed like things might have been settled.
Walter still leads the Raptors’ backup wing cohort in minutes per game on the season at 18, but in eight games since he returned, he’s shot only 26 percent from deep. Meanwhile Dick’s had one of his best shooting stretches of the season over the last dozen or so games (still with some ugliness mixed in). The picture’s become muddied once again.
Walter and Dick are at the forefront, each with opposing strengths. Walter is the better defender by far. And while Dick’s defence has improved – in part thanks to the Raptors’ scheme – it’s his potential offensive upside that keeps him in the conversation despite the poor results.
And that’s the crux of this decision. Walter is the safer, more proven option, and Dick comes with higher risk and higher potential reward. Walter’s defence is real, and Dick’s offence is theoretical. Given that the Raptors are primed for their first playoff berth in four years, they don’t have the time to let Dick figure it out.
Baseball fans may know, but the Blue Jays just traded Joey Loperfido, a less proven and more theoretical player, who could develop into something better down the line, for Jesus Sanchez, who’s been there and done it before in a role that the team needs. The situation is comparable. The team is aiming to win. And even though Walter has one less year in the league than Dick, he has a more consistent track record of succeeding in the areas Toronto needs.
Walter’s made three or more triples in a single game seven times this season and has made four or five a few times. Dick hasn’t yet made more than three, and he’s hit three total on only three occasions. With Dick in on defence, the other team can easily bring him into the action and try to force a switch onto their top scoring threat. With a backcourt of say Walter and Jamal Shead in a transitional lineup, that switch becomes harder to exploit. This will be particularly important when facing the likes of Donovan Mitchell and James Harden, Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe – backcourts the Raptors could see in the playoffs.
Now that I’ve made my case for why the lion’s share of minutes should go to Walter, let’s dive into how he can make the most of them.
We must start with his defining skill, defence on opposing ball handlers, which has been sublime for stretches this season. Walter’s been thrown at opponent’s star guards and has often been the most effective Raptor at containing them. He’s held his own against Mitchell, Jalen Brunson, Jamal Murray and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. There are few better tests of a player’s isolation defence than going toe-to-toe with this gauntlet of elite live-dribble shot creators.
Mitchell shot 3-of-10 with Walter as his primary defender over the course of two games, including 2-of-8 in a game where Walter guarded him most often. Spida went 6-of-20 overall in that game and finished with 17 points as the Raptors swept the season series over the Cavaliers.
“I think that Ja’Kobe’s doing a really good job, and tonight we’re facing another great team that’s going to be a good opportunity to see what it looks like,” Rajaković said when I asked him about Walter’s point-of-attack defence before that Cavaliers game.
When Jamal Murray and the Denver Nuggets squeaked past the Raptors on New Years Eve by milliseconds, Kitchener, Ont’s. finest went 0-of-4 versus Walter. Plus, Walter forced this turnover that was credited as a steal for Sandro Mamukelashvili. Because of Walter’s fervent pressure, teams’ turnover rates go up when he’s on the floor, which helps fuel Toronto’s transition offence.
Brunson went 6-of-12 against Walter, which is fine, sure. But the tape told another story. Just because a player makes a shot doesn’t mean the defence was bad, and vice versa. A player can guard perfectly and have the shot go down over their contest; players miss shots sometimes even if the coverage is poor. Brunson went 2-of-3 against Walter in the Knicks’ NBA Cup quarterfinal win over the Raptors, but look at the makes:
Walter kept him in front, maintained the shell of the defence and forced difficult mid-range shots. He did the same to Gilgeous-Alexander, who made 2-of-4 shots against Walter, but made six of the other seven attempts he took in that game. Walter also snuffed out a couple of Brunson drives entirely on his own and has been the Raptors’ best answer for the Knicks’ superstar – another elite scoring guard who could rear his head come late April.
The Raptors need guys who can guard guards. Walter is among their best options.
Offensively, Walter’s job is simple. Finish plays. Get out in transition, make timely cuts, hit open 3s. Aside from his recent cold spell from deep he’s mostly done this, and I expect his 3-point shooting to at least normalize back where it was previously (36.7 percent), which is just above league average. Last season he shot worse from the corners and better from above the break. This season he’s pumped heat from the corners and lagged behind above the break. I don’t put much stock into either sample. Again, his mechanics are clean and simple. He should be a passable shooter. Lord knows the Raptors could use more of them.
This is all the offence that’s needed from Walter. Emphasis on hitting the open 3s. Dick is certainly more capable when it comes to second-side creation, driving closeouts, extending advantages, which are all valuable. But it’s nothing without the baseline of shooting and defence. Baby steps first, walk before you run, etc. Walter hasn’t looked comfortable at all attacking off the dribble this season. Even less so than his rookie season, to my eye. But that’s ok! Just. Hit. The 3s.
I’m not suggesting the Raptors don’t play Dick. He’ll surely still get minutes. Ideally Dick and Walter could functionally share the floor in bench lineups. Instead they have the second-worst net rating of any Raptors two-man lineup that’s played more than 100 minutes.
So, at this stage, it’s time to start heavily tilting the minutes in Walter’s direction. The Raptors need dependability, not volatility, as they wrestle for playoff positioning down the stretch. They need a player who can either stay in front of their man or peel switch off as needed, not one that has to peel because a blowby is inevitable. Ja’Kobe was named after a couple of greats, but now it’s time for him to make a name for himself in the exact opposite way they did. By quietly and dependably filling a supporting role.
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