Polymarket withdraws explosive Artemis betting market after backlash
Polymarket is facing fresh scrutiny after a viral post set off a wave of criticism about what kinds of events should be turned into betting markets, which has since been withdrawn.
The controversy began when a screenshot circulated on X showing a Polymarket listing titled “Artemis II explodes?” Traders had assigned the event an 8% implied probability. For many users, the optics alone were jarring. One commenter wrote, “Sorry to be a scold but wagering on people dying should not be legal!” The remark quickly gained traction, capturing a wider discomfort with the idea of speculating on a potential space disaster.
As the backlash grew, Polymarket moved to clarify what the contract was actually measuring. On its official account, the company said the listing “was a market about a potential booster-stage rupture — a defined hardware failure scenario — not about the Orion crew capsule or astronaut safety.” It followed up by stating, “This was not a market on crew injury or loss of life.” By Monday night, that explanation had racked up more than 500,000 views.
Polymarket later swapped out the original headline for something that felt less jarring, renaming the listing “Artemis II booster rupture?” instead.
In a brief note attached to the change, the company said, “This market’s language has been updated for clarity.”
According to one user, in a message posted to the Polymarket Discord, the company said the market had been pulled entirely. “The market titled ‘Artemis II booster rupture?’ has been withdrawn and outstanding shares at the time of this clarification will be refunded. Although this market was meant to refer to the success of a newly developed rocket booster AFTER it detaches from the Artemis II, and the outcome was not intended to impact or involve the safety of the crew, we are withdrawing the market due to confusion over the outcome.”
Prediction markets like Polymarket allow users to buy “yes” or “no” shares tied to real-world outcomes, effectively turning future events into tradable assets. Supporters argue these platforms can harness collective judgment and surface probabilities that reflect crowd wisdom. Critics counter that when markets focus on disasters, deaths or other sensitive scenarios, they risk crossing ethical lines.
The Artemis listing has revived that long-running debate. Even if the contract was narrowly defined around a technical malfunction, many observers say the headline itself invited a darker interpretation. In a fast-moving social media environment, nuance can be lost as screenshots spread far beyond their original context.
Recent reporting from ReadWrite suggests the Artemis dispute is part of a larger pattern. In one case, the outlet detailed how markets tied to conservative commentator Charlie Kirk were removed by rival platform Kalshi while similar bets remained available on Polymarket, highlighting differences in content moderation and risk tolerance across the industry. In another instance, ReadWrite examined a Polymarket contract centered on a potential U.S. invasion of Venezuela and the controversy that followed over how the market was resolved and paid out, raising fresh questions about transparency and settlement standards.
Polymarket’s social media playbook has also fueled debate. According to ReadWrite, “Polymarket is not just running markets these days, it is also chasing virality on social media.” Over the past year, some posts from its X accounts “simply were not true.” One especially viral example came from its sports-focused handle, which posted: “BREAKING: ‘No bag policy’ has been implemented for tonight’s WNBA game in an attempt to crack down on dildo throwers.”
The claim drew tens of millions of views despite no credible reporting to support it, and the league denied the policy existed.
ReadWrite has reached out to Polymarket for comment.
Featured image: Polymarket / NASA / Frank Michaux
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