Homicides and violent crime drop in Baja California, but safety concerns remain

Tijuana has long had a reputation for violence. Mexican officials consider it one of Baja California’s biggest challenges.

So there was reason to point out progress recently when Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced during her latest visit to the border town of nearly 2 million people that the daily average of reported homicides and other serious crimes in Baja California had fallen to the lowest levels in nine years.

According to the data, presented by Marcela Figueroa of Mexico’s National Public Security System, the average daily number of reported homicides fell by 28%, from 6.5 incidents per day in 2024 to 4.7 last year.

During the same period, the number of reported violent and serious crimes — including armed robbery, firearm-related offenses and extortion — decreased by 32%, from an average of 26 to 17.6 incidents per day.

“It is a significant decrease, given the difficulties Baja California faces — as a border state and due to the presence of different criminal organizations,” Sheinbaum said during her Jan. 30 news conference in Tijuana. She was joined by Mexican Secretary of Security and Citizen Protection Omar García Harfuch and Baja California Gov. Marina del Pilar Ávila, among others.

Sheinbaum’s visit to Tijuana followed ongoing pressure from the U.S. over drug cartels.

The day before her border visit, the Mexican president spoke with President Donald Trump. During the call, both leaders discussed the border and ways to stop drug trafficking. Trump had previously said he wants to send the U.S. military to Mexico, a proposal Sheinbaum has repeatedly opposed.

Mexican officials said that a central part of their security strategy has been arresting “priority targets and perpetrators of violence” who are leaders of criminal organizations responsible for crimes such as homicide and drug trafficking.

García Harfuch said that in Baja California, those arrested have included leaders and operators from various factions of the Sinaloa cartel, such as Los Mayos, Los Rusos, Los Aquiles and the Arellano Félix Organization. He added that the arrests “allow us to weaken their operations and reduce their capacity to generate violence in the region.”

He referenced several significant arrests in Baja California last year, including that of Pablo Edwin Huerta, also known as “El Flaquito.” Huerta is an alleged leader of a remnant cell of the Arellano Félix Organization and one of the many individuals who have been extradited from Mexico to San Diego and other U.S. cities under Sheinbaum.

García Harfuch underscored the coordination between the three levels of government and the enhanced use of intelligence as pivotal components of the security strategy.

Ávila, Baja California’s governor, noted during one of her weekly press conferences late last month that both the state’s and the federal government’s focus has also been on prevention, with programs providing opportunities for young people.

Baja California is one of the Mexican states with the highest number of arrests and seizures linked to organized crime, state officials said. In 2025, authorities seized 41 tons of methamphetamine, 23 tons of marijuana, 5 tons of cocaine, 182 kilograms of fentanyl and 166 kilograms of heroin throughout the state.

Earlier this month, state officials reported dismantling a clandestine drug laboratory located south of Ensenada, marking the ninth such laboratory shut down by authorities in the span of a year.

The lab, which was recently discovered in a remote area, is reportedly one of the largest found in recent years, according to the Baja California news site Punto Norte. Officials estimate that it could produce 50 to 100 kilograms of methamphetamine per week.

But while Mexican officials tout these results, community concerns about public safety persist.

“It’s one thing that official numbers are declining, but it’s another that the public perceives things have gotten better,” said Alfredo Estrada Cervantes, a professor at CETYS University’s School of Law in Tijuana.

The National Urban Public Safety Survey, conducted every three months in Mexico, found that 67% of adults surveyed in Tijuana in December said they felt unsafe.

One reason could be that, despite the reduction, crime numbers remain high, said Estrada Cervantes.

Data from the Baja California Secretariat of Public Safety shows that there were 1,708 homicides in Baja California in 2025 — most of which occurred in Tijuana. In 2024, 2,370 homicides were recorded statewide.

Baja California had the highest homicide rate of any state in Mexico in September. By December, the state placed third, according to state officials.

Officials from the Baja California Attorney General’s Office said that the vast majority of homicides in the state are related in some way to illicit activities, such as drug dealing.

The president’s recent announcement of progress has been somewhat overshadowed by violent crimes making headlines daily.

It was recently reported that an armed group wearing National Guard uniforms broke into the home of a married couple of doctors in a wealthy Tijuana neighborhood and robbed them. A video shared on social media shows the wife screaming for help from her balcony. Baja California officials said the case is under investigation. Officials have not officially confirmed whether the suspects were part of the National Guard.

“All of this contributes to us still not feeling safer than before,” said Estrada Cervantes.

Such a case raised concerns among Mexican officials, business leaders and the community. Congressmember Jorge Ramos, a former mayor of Tijuana, called for action to combat corruption within law enforcement.

“If criminals wear the uniforms, carry radios, drive the vehicles, and, above all, have access to intelligence information, it will be practically impossible to solve the problem,” he said.

Estrada Cervantes, the law professor, agreed that the timing of Mexico’s public release of figures is no coincidence. He noted that the government is facing mounting pressure from both the Mexican public and the U.S.

Last month, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed the need for stronger cooperation to fight drug cartels with Mexican Foreign Secretary Juan Ramón de la Fuente during a call. Rubio stressed the “need for tangible results to protect our homeland and hemisphere.”

David Shirk, a University of San Diego professor and director of the research initiative Justice in Mexico, believes that the Sheinbaum administration is in a “unique position.”

“The amount of pressure coming from the United States provides a strong impetus to try to combat organized crime, in a real way — in a way that we haven’t seen Mexican authorities do for a very long time,” he said.

Shirk said there’s still room for improvement.

“I think there’s real potential to continue to see decreases in violent crime,” he said. “I am still a believer that Mexico is capable of professionalizing its police forces and improving its public security system.

“It is going to require a lot more investment; they’re going to need to pay people properly … law enforcement is a difficult and dangerous job, and it merits having highly qualified, well-trained and well-compensated personnel,” he added.

Shirk said that he believes Tijuana is safe for visitors. Thousands of people cross the San Diego-Tijuana border daily, and most do so safely, he noted. Baja California is also home to many U.S. citizens.

“I think it’s going be probably a decade or two before its reputation catches up to where Tijuana is really at,” he said.

José María Ramos, a professor and researcher at the Colegio de la Frontera Norte in Tijuana, considered several actions within the security strategy to be effective. These included investigative and intelligence efforts against organized crime in Mexico, as well as cooperation with the United States.

He also credited Trump administration policies, including designating cartels as terrorist organizations and classifying fentanyl as a weapon of mass destruction.

However, he said that more joint action is needed to curb drug trafficking. “Addressing the problem only from the supply side will not reduce it,” he said.