Who should the Raptors protect in an NBA expansion draft?

The last NBA expansion took place in 2004 when the NBA added the Charlotte Bobcats to the league. Before that it was the Vancouver Grizzlies and Toronto Raptors who joined in 1995. In 1989 the Minnesota Timberwolves and Orlando Magic were added and the year before that it was the Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat. Throughout NBA history, the league has grown at an astonishing rate, adding 21 of it’s 30 franchises over a 43 year span. Over the last 22 years things have stagnated, a necessary move to grow the league internally, but with the depth of talent growing by the minute, and with NBA-ready cities offering billions of dollars to join the league, that may soon change.

Recent reports indicate that the NBA could be expanding once again, and with Seattle and Las Vegas leading the charge, an expansion draft could be happening sooner rather than later. Since I was just three years old the last time the NBA expanded, I can only imagine the excitement that the expansion draft brings. The drama and strategy surrounding who is protected and who isn’t, teams having to broadcast to the world who they value the most, and the players that are selected by get the chance to write history for a brand-new franchise. It’s an exciting time.

Throughout NBA expansion history, the draft has been fairly underwhelming. Given that teams could protect their eight best players, it left few options for teams to work with. The Raptors selected B.J. Armstrong with the first pick of the 1995 expansion, and he never actually played for the team. This time things should be different, and the reason is twofold. One, the league is far more talented now than it was in 2004, you have legit NBA-ready players who ride the bench. Two, given how important having good-value salaries is under the current collective bargaining agreement, there will be good yet overpaid players that will be left unprotected.

For example, Spotrac currently has an expansion draft simulator, and players such as Jimmy Butler, Paul George, Zach Lavine, Domantas Sabonis, Ja Morant, and Zion Williamson are left unprotected by default. I’m not sure that all those names would be unprotected in reality, but there will be solid players available.

It’s hard to say when NBA expansion will actually happen, but I thought it would be a fun exercise to think about who the Raptors should protect if it happened tomorrow. It’s a good activity to zoom out and think about what skillsets and which players the team should prioritize going forward. There’s also a lot of strategy in choosing who to protect. So let’s lay out the ground rules and then go over who I decided to protect.

Rules of the expansion draft (via Spotrac):

• Existing teams are allowed to protect up to eight (8) players.
• Players eligible to be protected are players who are not on expiring contracts and Restricted Free Agents.
• Teams must expose at least one (1) player.
• Teams may not lose more than one (1) player in an expansion draft.

The Locks

Okay, now that we’ve done our history lesson and laid out the ground rules, let’s get to the fun part. We’ll start with the no-brainer locks, because there’s no doubt that the Raptors will protect these three players.

Scottie Barnes – Do I have to explain this one? No, but I will just a little. Undoubtedly the Raptors will protect the face of the franchise. If they refused to include him in trade packages for Giannis Antetokounmpo, they’re not going to let him go for free. This season, his DPOY level defense and second All-Star appearance have him on track for an All-NBA appearance.

Collin Murray-Boyles – As the most promising rookie prospect since Barnes, it’s a no-brainer to protect Murray-Boyles. He’s having arguably the greatest defensive season of a Raptor rookie and his offense is improving daily.

Brandon Ingram – Despite his hefty contract, Ingram has proven to be an essential piece in elevating this Raptors offense and has allowed Barnes to play a role better suited to his skillset. His midrange shotmaking has bailed the Raptors out time and time again and he’s proven able to stay healthy this season. Given his return to the All-Star game for the first time in years, the Raptors won’t be looking to get off his contract any time soon. I

Promising young guns

These two are likely locks as well, but are a tier below the first three guys.

Jamal Shead – The second year point guard has proven to be an essential piece off the bench and has even closed games with the starters this year. While he does have some obvious flaws, namely his shooting efficiency, there’s no world where the Raptors will leave him unprotected.

Ja’Kobe Walter – This season began with a giant logjam at the shooting guard position but it’s slowly working itself out. Between Walter, Gradey Dick, Jamison Battle, and Ochai Agbaji it was a fight to earn consistent minutes early in the season. Since Agbaji was dealt, Walter has consistently received more minutes than any of the other bench guards, averaging 25.7 minutes a night. It seems clear that of the bunch, Walter has earned his place at the top of the pile.

The tough choices

Okay, so that’s five players protected, leaving three more slots and a handful of players to choose from:

• Immanuel Quickley
• RJ Barrett
• Jakob Poeltl
• Sandro Mamukelashvili
• Gradey Dick
• Jonathan Mogbo
• Jamison Battle
• Trayce Jackson-Davis

Of that group there are three that stand out immediately as having little chance of being protected, and won’t make my cut today. Mogbo, Battle, and Jackson-Davis are all fine players, but haven’t cracked the regular rotation on a consistent basis, and I don’t see the Raptors bothering to protect any of those three.

Which leaves us choosing between Quickley, Barrett, Poeltl, Mamukelashvili, and Dick for the final three spots. This is where the decisions become tougher. Contracts become a bigger consideration and some though should be given to who would realistically be selected by the expansion teams. With that being said, the final three players the Raptors should protect are as follows:

Immanuel Quickley – Quickley’s shooting is essential to this Raptors’ group as it’s currently constructed, he may not be the most talented lead guard but as an off-ball player he’s a much needed component. The team ranks near the bottom of the league in almost every three-point category and Quickley is by far the best three-point shooter. Despite his inflated contract, I still can’t see the Raptors risking letting him go for nothing, so he earns a protection.

Sandro Mamukelashvili – I love this dude, but his protection status fully hinges on whether or not the Raptors believe they can re-sign him. The Raptors should already be doing whatever they need to re-sign him, he’s been a revelation for this roster as one of the most consistent bench pieces they have. So I would protect him and find the cap space to extend him.

RJ Barrett – The Raptors don’t seem as keen on Barrett as I am given all the trade rumours he’s been in since arriving in Toronto. I’ve previously said that Barrett is an essential cog to the Raptors offense, and while my stance has softened slightly on that, I still think he’s very valuable to this team. Not to mention that they could potentially sign him to a friendlier contract that could have value as a trade asset in the future too. Would I be surprised if Barrett were left unprotected? No, but I do think it would be the wrong decision.

With Barrett rounding out the eighth spot that leaves Dick and Poeltl as the two rotation players left unprotected. For Dick it simply came down to the fact that he hasn’t shown improvement in the one skill that the Raptors drafted him for: shooting. Who knows if the expansion teams would select him but of the bench guards I feel the best about letting him go, maybe he can thrive in a new environment. For Poeltl, given how this season has gone I think leaving him unprotected is a safe bet as he likely wouldn’t be selected anyways, so why waste the protection? And if for some reason he is selected, then you unlock financial flexibility that would otherwise be impossible to attain given his lack of value on the trade market.

Expansion is likely a couple years away still, but if it happened tomorrow the eight Raptors that should be protected are: Barnes, Ingram, Murray-Boyles, Shead, Walter, Mamukelashvili, Quickley, and Barrett. I feel confident that this group is the best path forward for the franchise, and while it would hurt to lose Dick in the process, these are the tough choices that teams face when the league expands.

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