Why Wargaming Matters In An Age Of Hybrid Conflict And Artificial Intelligence – Analysis

States define and pursue their national interests. Inevitably, these interests collide with those of competing states, generating economic, political, and social tensions that can escalate into direct or indirect military confrontation through alliances and proxy arrangements.

Strategic management of national interests therefore requires a framework capable of producing sound courses of action under uncertainty. At the core of such a framework lies wargaming. It should not be confined to military simulation alone. 

War is a multidimensional phenomenon that affects political systems, economic stability, social cohesion, and technological development. Consequently, serious national strategy demands multidimensional wargaming capable of refining decision cycles and increasing the probability of strategic success.

The UK Ministry of Defence’s Defence Wargaming Handbook describes wargaming as a long-standing cornerstone of military strategy development, providing “structured and intellectually liberating safe-to-fail environments” in which policymakers and practitioners can explore what works and what fails at relatively low cost.

Demystifying the Complex Nature of War

Contemporary conflicts are increasingly hybrid. They extend beyond conventional military manoeuvres to include economic coercion, cognitive operations, cyber disruption, sanctions regimes, trade competition, and innovation races driven by defence technology.

These dimensions create additional responsibilities for national security institutions. Governments must anticipate scenarios that involve simultaneous pressures across military, economic, technological, and informational domains. The complexity of modern conflict makes scenario-based research indispensable.

As a result, wargaming and simulation are gaining renewed attention in both defence establishments and academia. Institutions such as King’s College London have formalised this interest through dedicated research initiatives like the Wargaming Network, established in 2017, reflecting the growing scholarly recognition of wargaming as both an analytical tool and an academic field.

Wargaming, in essence, is a method for structured problem-solving under strategic uncertainty.

Historical Lessons: The Western Approaches Tactical Unit

The value of wargaming is illustrated vividly by the work of the Western Approaches Tactical Unit (WATU) during the Second World War. In 1942, German U-boat attacks threatened the Atlantic supply routes between the United States and Britain. The survival of Britain depended on secure maritime logistics.

Under the leadership of Captain Gilbert Roberts, WATU developed and refined anti-submarine warfare tactics through systematic experimentation and simulation. Through iterative wargaming, the team identified convoy defence manoeuvres that significantly improved survival rates against U-boat attacks.

The success of WATU’s methods led the Royal Navy to expand wargaming training for its officers. The story later inspired Simon Parkin’s book A Game of Birds and Wolves: The Secret Game That Won the War, which documents how structured simulation reshaped operational doctrine at a critical moment.

This episode demonstrates that wargaming does not merely theorise about conflict — it generates actionable tactical innovation.

Wargaming as an Input to Defence Systems Development

Modern computer-based wargaming extends beyond conceptual exercises. Contemporary platforms incorporate extensive databases of real-world weapon systems, enabling simulation of physical performance parameters such as speed, fuel consumption, ordnance capacity, sensor range, radar detection envelopes, and electronic warfare effects.

Professional editions of simulation platforms such as Command: Modern Operations allow users to model real weapon systems and even design conceptual systems to test projected performance under operational conditions.

These high-fidelity simulations enable multiple iterations of operational concepts before physical deployment. They assist in requirements development, capability assessment, and defence acquisition planning. By iterating within a virtual environment, defence planners can reduce uncertainty before committing significant financial or strategic resources.

Artificial Intelligence as a Force Multiplier

The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence — particularly large language models — has opened new possibilities for enhancing wargaming. AI systems are capable of processing vast volumes of structured and unstructured data, identifying patterns, and generating scenario-based recommendations.

In recent years, defence institutions have increasingly integrated AI into operational domains: computer vision for target identification, automated satellite image analysis, drone data processing, network analysis of online information environments, and sentiment analysis for intelligence assessment.

These technological applications are feeding into defence planning architectures. Research increasingly explores whether large language models can support operational and theatre-level planning. Studies and initiatives in this direction include:

Koichiro Takagi’s analysis of AI and operational planning in US-China military competition.

Reporting in The Wall Street Journal on how commercial video wargames are being used for Pentagon experimentation.

Research presented at IEEE on large language models in wargaming methodology and robustness.

The US Defence Innovation Unit’s Thunderforge Project, which integrates commercial AI-powered decision support tools for operational planning.

These developments suggest a growing institutional interest in AI-enabled planning environments.

Why Defence AI Is More Feasible Than Before

One reason AI integration into defence planning is increasingly viable lies in the availability of verified conflict data. Contemporary conflicts generate structured datasets that include mission outcomes, casualty figures, resource utilisation metrics, timelines, and expert qualitative assessments.

The quality of AI outputs depends fundamentally on the quality of inputs. Verified operational data — combined with structured wargaming outputs — can serve as a training foundation for defence AI systems.

The iterative cycle between human-led wargaming and AI-assisted modelling creates a feedback loop in which both human judgement and machine-generated recommendations improve over time.

Expected Outcomes and Strategic Significance

AI-generated scenarios based on real conflict data could significantly accelerate mission analysis. AI systems can evaluate large scenario trees far more rapidly than individual commanders, allowing planners to assess broader strategic option spaces within compressed timelines.

Importantly, such research does not remove human commanders from the decision-making loop. Rather, it strengthens human judgement by expanding analytical bandwidth. Through reinforcement learning from human feedback, AI-generated plans may improve over time and even contribute to the emergence of novel tactics and operational concepts.

Moreover, AI-enabled wargaming offers a safe experimental environment for testing defence AI before real-world deployment. It allows for structured assessment of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and risks associated with AI integration into defence planning.

The broader question remains: can such technological approaches reduce collateral damage by enabling more precise planning and better-informed strategic choices? While the answer is not yet definitive, the potential merits serious research attention.

Wargaming — particularly when combined with artificial intelligence — is not merely a simulation tool. It is becoming a core instrument of strategic resilience in an era of hybrid and data-driven conflict.