2026 NL East Position Rankings: Starting Rotation

In a typical season, a team expects to have 10-12 pitchers make starts for them. Last year, the Mets had 14 pitchers start a game (excluding openers) and the cracks in their depth showed. This year they worked to not only improve their depth, but also improve the front end of their rotation. Let’s see how they stack up among the rest of the National League East.

No 5. Washington Nationals

Ranking the Nationals at number five is likely the easiest part of this list. Since trading MacKenzie Gore, they do not have a single starting pitcher whose projections average out to less than a 4.15 ERA. Most of their starting pitchers project to end up in the mid-fours to low-fives in ERA. They also do not have a single starter who projects to throw more than 138 innings this year.

Foster Griffin, who spent the last two seasons pitching in Japan, projects the best with a 4.15 ERA and 1.283 WHIP across 138 innings pitched. In Japan, he pitched to a 2.57 ERA and 1.03 WHIP across two seasons, and while he pitched to a 1.52 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 2025, it was only across 89 innings. Outside of him, the most interesting name may be former top prospect Cade Cavalli, who pitched to a 4.25 ERA and 1.48 WHIP across 48.2 innings pitched in 2025.

After those two, it is a mix of Trevor Williams after he returns from internal brace elbow surgery, Josiah Gray when he returns from Tommy John surgery, Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker, Brad Lord, Andrew Alvarez, Riley Cornelio, Luis Perales, and more. It is very much a pitching staff built on quantity over quality.

No. 4 Atlanta Braves

Losing Spencer Schwellenbach for an extended period, potentially the entire season, is a major blow to the Braves’ rotation. At the point of writing this, the Braves have not signed a replacement starter, meaning Bryce Elder, who pitched to a 5.59 ERA the last two seasons is projected to fill the bulk of Spencer’s innings. The Braves’ rotation is very top-heavy, very injury-prone, and contains very little depth. There is not much room for anything else to go wrong.

Their best case involves Chris Sale not getting injured for the first time since 2017, or at least missing minimal time, which he has only done once in that time span – his Cy Young-winning 2024 season. It also requires him to pitch the same at age 37 as he has the last two seasons. Spencer Strider, meanwhile, needs to take a step forward from his 4.45 ERA and 1.40 WHIP 2025 season and return to his former ace quality self. A year further removed from an internal brace surgery, the hope is that he will bounce back, but there are real concerns since his velocity was down significantly in 2025. If both Sale and Strider pitch to their potential, they are one of the best one-two punches in the game. The Braves also need Reynaldo López, who only pitched 5 innings in 2025, to pitch like he did in 2024 despite undergoing shoulder surgery. Hurston Waldrep needs to show that his 2025 performance in the majors was not a fluke after he was very inconsistent in Triple-A. Grant Holmes needs to perform closer to his 3.99 ERA than his 4.40 FIP. Most of all, they need to stay healthy and get as many innings from Schwellenbach as possible.

If all of that happens, they are at least a top-eight rotation. But the Braves have really no room for error. Sale has been a massive injury risk for almost a decade now and at age 37 that isn’t less of a risk. Spencer Strider did not rebound well from his elbow surgery in either results or under the hood. López has not pitched more than 25 starts since 2019 and is coming off shoulder surgery. Hurston Waldrep and Grant Holmes both have had elbow issues in the last two seasons. And their depth isElder, Martín Pérez, and Joey Wentz. Number 90 overall prospect JR Ritchie ended 2025 in Triple-A and could be a big factor in 2026 after a strong 59.2 innings to a 3.02 ERA in Triple-A. But one depth starter with upside may not be enough for this Braves rotation. Last year, the Braves had the 22nd-best ERA in the game and with Schwellenbach missing significant time it is easy to see a path where that happens again.

The Braves do not have the ceiling of the Marlins if everything goes right, and their floor is likely as low if enough goes wrong. Truly, they need another high-floor starter in this rotation to take Schwellenbach’s innings and could always add one before opening day. That would shift them above the Marlins. But as they currently stand today they are in fourth place.

No. 3 Miami Marlins

The Marlins had the opportunity to enter the season with one of the deepest rotations in baseball but traded away Edward Cabrera to the Cubs and Ryan Weathers to the Yankees. Still, a rotation of Sandy Alcantara, Eury Pérez, Braxton Garrett, Max Meyer, and Chris Paddack is nothing to scoff at. Top prospects Robby Snelling and Thomas White also will likely make an impact in 2026 while Janson Junk, Ryan Gusto and Adam Mazur provide additional depth. There is legitimate upside here. There are also plenty of question marks.

There is a path where the Marlins are the clear best rotation in the National League East. If Sandy looks like he did in the second half with his 3.33 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, he will be a strong anchor for the rotation. If former number 13 overall prospect Pérez, another year removed from Tommy John Surgery, pitches like he did in 2023 when he had a 3.15 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, he and Sandy would provide a dominant one-two punch. If Garrett looks like he did from 2022-2023 pre Tommy John surgery with a 3.63 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, he will be one of the best third starters in the game. If former number 57 prospect Meyer takes a step forward and hits his potential, he could be one of the best fourth starters in the game. If current No. 17 prospect White and No. 39 prospect Snelling hit the ground running as rookies, they can be rookie of the year candidates. If all that happens, they would be one of the best rotations in baseball. But how often does everything go right?

Alcantara pitched to a 5.36 ERA in 2025. Pérez pitched to a 4.25 ERA. Meyer pitched to a 4.73 ERA. Garret has pitched 37 innings since 2023, missing all of 2025 with Tommy John Surgery. Snelling and White are rookies who have yet to pitch in the majors. A lot can go wrong here, and a lot of innings could end up being thrown by Paddack, Junk, Gusto, and Mazur. Sandy could also pitch well and then get traded at the deadline, similar to Cabrera and Weathers before the season began. That is why their large quantity of upside is important here, and likely why they felt they could trade away Cabrera and Weathers for more offense.

While the ceiling is sky high for this rotation, the floor is very low and with that level of variance, it is hard to justify putting them higher than this. But Alcantara and Pérez at their best are not too far off from Sale and Strider as a one-two-punch and the rest of their rotation, including their depth, dwarfs the Braves, which is why they currently leapfrog them. But it is close and the Braves could always sign another starter to leapfrog back.

No. 2 New York Mets

There is an argument with their depth that the Mets have the best rotation in the National League East. They arguably have the deepest top nine starters in the division with Freddy Peralta, Nolan McLean, Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes, Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Tobias Myers, Jonah Tong, and Christian Scott. Like all the rotations, there is also some level of variance to this rotation.

The Mets saw a pitching collapse in 2025. Peterson fell apart down the stretch as he blew past his career high in innings. Manaea never seemed to pitch healthy and in his small sample vastly underperformed his metrics and pitched to a 5.64 ERA. Senga seemed to never fully recover from his hamstring issue and struggled so much in the second half that he was demoted to Triple-A. They lost Griffin Canning to an Achilles tendon tear. McLean was amazing, but will still be a rookie pitcher. But the Mets recognized this and are not running out the same pitching staff plus more innings from the young pitchers like McLean and Tong. Peralta greatly increases the floor of this rotation while Myers greatly increases its floor. They are better positioned to withstand injuries with Scott returning from an internal brace surgery. Jonah Tong got his cup of coffee in the majors after dominating the minors and will be available to take more starts if needed in 2026 than in 2025. Jonathan Pintaro is likely more suited for the bullpen but has interesting stuff, while Brandon Waddell and Justin Hagenman are fine at 10th and 11th in the depth chart. The true depth comes from the large number of quality prospect starters in the high minors. Ideally, the moves the Mets made and the increased depth from their pitching development will better prepare them for the worst-case scenario.

On the flip side, the Mets’ rotation ceiling is very high. Peralta pitched to a 2.70 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 2025. After a July overhaul, McLean pitched in the majors to a 2.06 ERA and 1.04 WHIP across 48 innings and everything under the hood looked like borderline ace material. Manaea seemed to take a step forward in 2024, pitching to a 3.47 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Holmes, in his first year as a starter, pitched 165.2 innings to a 3.53 ERA and 1.30 WHIP and could ideally take a step forward in 2026. Senga is a career 3.00 ERA and 1.25 WHIP starter and is determined to stay healthy. Heading into August 2025, Peterson had pitched to a 2.68 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with a 3.53 FIP across 242 innings between 2024 and 2025. Tong was the minor league pitcher of the year per Baseball America and is ranked as high as the 23rd best prospect in baseball heading into 2026. Scott was the number 88 prospect per Baseball Prospectus going into the 2024 season.

The Mets have the ceiling to be one of the best rotations in baseball and their floor should keep them comfortable in the top half even if things do go wrong.

No. 1 Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have a lot riding on Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo staying healthy, but they are one of the best one-two punches in baseball when they are. Zack Wheeler could be a bit of a question mark coming off thoracic outlet syndrome surgery at age 36, but when healthy, he is one of the best pitchers in the game. If each of those three throws even 150 innings to their potentia,l they are a force to be reckoned with. It is after those three that things get murkier. Aaron Nola looked like a shell of himself in 2025, pitching to a 6.01 ERA and 4.58 FIP. He missed time with an ankle and rib injury, but even when he was on the field his stuff and velocity was not the same. The Phillies will need a bounce-back season from their 33-year-old starter. Taijuan Walker had a bit of a bounce back in 2025, pitching to a 4.08 ERA and 1.41 WHIP though he arguably overperformed his metrics doing so. He will likely spend a decent chunk of time in the rotation and will need to pitch closer to that ERA than his 5.07 FIP. Bryse Wilson, Alan Rangel, Jean Cabrera, and Yoniel Curet make up the bulk of their depth, but all project to have an ERA near 5.00.

The Phillies’ true wild card is Andrew Painter. Once the sixth-best prospect in baseball, his stock has been on the decline since he underwent Tommy John Surgery in 2023. In December of 2024, per Matt Gelbs of The Athletic, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski stated he expected Andrew Painter to join the rotation around July 2025. Even with injuries to Wheeler and Nola, Painter did not make it to the majors in 2025. He struggled heavily in 2025 in the minors with a 5.26 ERA, and 1.49 WHIP, and his stuff did not look close to what it did pre-surgery. A year removed, he could bounce back to become the frontline starter he was projected to be, but at the time of writing, he is very much a big question mark.

The Phillies also did not replace Ranger Suárez, who pitched 157.1 innings to a 3.20 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, which makes a breakout season from Painter even more of a necessity.

Ranking the Phillies number one could be argued as a legacy ranking, or faith that Dave Dombrowski will continue to figure things out as he has. On paper, the top three of the rotation if healthy, should make up for the potentially very rough backend and come the playoffs you really only need three true starters. But this rotation really has no room for anyone to get hurt. Across the last three seasons the Phillies have only had to utilize 15 total starting pitchers, which is tied with the Mariners for the least in baseball. This ranking is based heavily on continuing to be one of the healthiest rotations in baseball.

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