The AI Jobs Apocalypse Isn’t Here Yet, But the Panic Is Real | Analysis

Is artificial intelligence moments away from taking your job?

The prospect of generative AI smart enough to wipe out “knowledge workers” has been an underlying threat since OpenAI’s ChatGPT broke out in late 2022, a digital Sword of Damocles hanging over all of our heads. A viral X post published by AI entrepreneur Matt Shumer this week reignited those fears with claims that AI models are now smart enough to code their own next iteration, and warned that the coming revolution will be more painful and happen faster than any of us thought. 

The post, ominously titled “Something Big Is Happening,” breathlessly compares our current state to those innocent times just weeks before the pandemic upended everything, and offers this stark warning: “I think we’re in the ‘this seems overblown’ phase of something much, much bigger than Covid.” 

Within days, critics poked holes in the post. Scientists and entrepreneur Gary Marcus criticized it for lacking any hard data to back up the assertions. Mashable argued the AI industry has a “Chicken Little” problem, with dire warnings becoming a regular occurrence. In May, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei predicted AI would decimate half of all entry-level white collar jobs as soon as this year. A month later, Geoffrey Hinton, the “godfather of AI,” warned there’s a 10 to 20 percent chance that AI displaces humanity completely. A day before Shumer’s post, Anthropic’s safety lead, Mrinank Sharma, suddenly quit his job to write poetry.

So are we doomed?

It would be foolhardy to make a prediction, especially given how quickly AI models are progressing, but it’s clear that Shumer’s post, which has racked up 77 million views so far, hit a nerve. I surely can’t be the only one feeling like we’re all stuck on a runaway train, powerless to stop the progression of AI and whatever disaster it’s racing toward. Tech companies are compelled to keep pouring billions of dollars into infrastructure and investment into smarter and more powerful models, with countries depending on them to ensure global seniority in the mother of too-big-to-fail scenarios. 

Shumer leans into this idea, noting the staggering advancement of AI to the point that he is no longer needed for any of the technical work, and that it is smart enough to build and test apps itself. He dismisses existing problems with AI, like hallucinations, and argues the latest models are exponentially smarter and more effective.

“Given what the latest models can do, the capability for massive disruption could be here by the end of this year,” wrote. “It’ll take some time to ripple through the economy, but the underlying ability is arriving now.”

What does this mean for the entertainment industry? I’ve spent the last several months digging into AI’s impact on Hollywood and the answer is less clear cut than the doomsday scenario Shumer paints. It’s noteworthy that the industries he believed would be disrupted, from financial analysis to software engineering, didn’t include positions like filmmakers, actors or even screenwriters. But there are a number of below-the-line positions that Hollywood talks less about that would be affected. 

After all, there is a strong desire by studios to utilize AI, but efforts so far have been hamstrung both by technical limitations and resistance by the talent community, which hold unusually strong sway relative to other industries (no one’s going to bat an eye when journalists get swapped out for an algorithm, but there would be outrage if an AI-generated Timothée Chalamet popped into the next blockbuster). 

The result has been a tiptoeing into AI, with studios still in early stages of testing the technology for things like pre-viz work or foreign language subtitling. While AI is integrating itself into more basic workflows, some of the loftier promises have so far fallen short. 

That’s not to say other industries have had a great track record. While the AI hype has caused companies to rush job cuts and move to embrace the technology, few actually have a grasp on its impact. 

“Nine out of ten companies announcing AI layoffs don’t actually have mature AI solutions ready,” Forrester analyst J.P. Gownder said on the Visionary Marketing podcast. “So most of the layoffs are financially driven and AI is just the scapegoat, at least today.”

Hollywood has also been quick to circle the wagons when it senses a threat. Just look at the reaction to OpenAI’s Sora (with Disney being the notable exception). Then there was the swift rise and fall of AI “actress” Tilly Norwood (remember her?). On Thursday, the Motion Picture Association called for China-based Bytedance’s Seedance 2.0 AI video model to cease infringing on U.S. copyrighted material after a scary-real AI-generated video of Brad Pitt and Tom Cruise fighting went viral online. 

That’s not to say AI won’t eventually make its impact felt in a bigger way, with some believing 2026 will serve as an inflection point for the use of the technology in film and television. There’s already concern that Amodei’s prediction of the death of entry level jobs will affect Hollywood’s talent pipeline. 

Which is why one suggestion Shumer offered makes a lot of sense: start using AI “and not just as a search engine.” As I’ve written, the stigma around AI in Hollywood has given creatives license to write off or ignore the technology. 

But avoid AI at your own peril. It’s inevitable that the technology will change how Hollywood operates in the coming years. And even if you want nothing to do with AI, it’s smart to understand how it works and how it potentially impacts your life and livelihood. 

Because even if AI doesn’t come for your job tomorrow, that sword could drop at any time. 

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