2026 NASCAR Cup Series Predictions: Kevin Harvick Talks Breakout Stars, Cup Champ

The NASCAR Cup Series has been unpredictable for several years, and a few of FOX Sports' motorsports experts expect the 2026 season to be just as wild. In the most recent edition of "Kevin Harvick's Happy Hour," Bob Pockrass, Kevin Harvick and Mamba Smith were all over the map with their predictions for the upcoming season. Each of them had different picks on who'll be this year's breakout driver, who'll have the most wins and who'll ultimately be the Cup Series champion. So, with Sunday's Daytona 500 just days away (Sunday, 2:30 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app), here is how Pockrass, Harvick and Smith expect the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series to play out. Which team has the most to prove this season? Pockrass: Richard Childress Racing With an uncertain future looming around RCR following an underwhelming season, Pockrass believes that Richard Childress Racing is under the most pressure in 2026. "You talk about Kyle Busch being a free agent and can you get the track right there with a new crew chief and get him feeling like this can be a place where he wants to keep racing at," Pockrass said. "Where is Austin Dillon in his career? He obviously wants to run better as well. You've got a couple of young guys there who want to go Cup racing. Where are they looking for their futures? To me, RCR, they've gone through another round of competition changes, which seems like they've had a lot over the last two or three years. To me, they're probably under the most pressure." Both Dillon and Busch finished outside the top 12 in the Cup Series standings last year, placing 15th and 21st, respectively. Harvick: 23XI Harvick simply believes that 23XI needs to do more in 2026, specifically pointing to Tyler Reddick as a driver that needs to step up. "We gave them a mulligan last year," Harvick said. "The bottom line is, Bubba [Wallace] got to victory lane, and we saw improvement from that car last year. Tyler Reddick has to win. I think he's expected and went there to win races and been there long enough to win races. I think the scrutiny of that organization if they don't, there's no gimme this year. "Bubba's been there long enough now that it's time to start creeping into that multiple wins [per season]. Riley will hopefully run better after his first year in Cup. But the big Tyler Reddick scenario to me is you're expecting multiple race wins out of that car and that company and, in my opinion, Michael Jordan and Denny Hamlin expect them to go out and contend for a championship." After a three-win season in 2024, Reddick wasn't able to get a win in 2025. He had seven top-five finishes, placing ninth in the season-long standings. Smith: RFK/22 Group Smith has a pair of teams that he believes need to step up in 2026. "RFK needs to show they can be a top team again," Smith said. "Obviously, what we just saw with Ryan Preece, that was great. He's their top guy. He's consistently their fastest guy. If I would say who is the most motivated, the 22 Group is the most motivated because of maybe how much people on social media talk about their championships. "Watch the 22 Group show you what they can do in a different format. Watch them come out and be a top team as far as average, because it's different." None of RFK's racers won a race last year, with all three finishing outside the top 15. Breakout Driver of the Year Pockrass: Chris Buescher Pockrass believes that Buescher could benefit from a potential strong season from RFK Racing. "When we talk to other drivers about, ‘Who do you think is gonna make the chase this year who didn’t make it last year?,' a third of them didn't even think twice before they said Chris Buescher. If RFK is stronger as a group, he's going to be really strong," Pockrass said. Buescher has taken a step back in the last two seasons following his seventh-place season finish in 2023, but had five top-five finishes in 2025. Harvick: Ty Gibbs Harvick thinks that one of Gibbs' traits makes him strong enough to break through in 2026. "Just because he's been so fast. He's got the speed in the race car to keep himself in contention, can race well, and it's just about getting over that hump to get to victory lane," Harvick said. "I think they have the capability, the stability within the team now that they think they can have a breakout year." The 23-year-old has finished in the top 20 of the Cup standings in all three of his seasons with Joe Gibbs Racing. He had five top-five finishes in 2025. Smith: Chase Elliott Yes, Elliott is a past Cup champion, but Smith believes he's due to climb back into contention after slipping to outside the top five in recent years. "I'm just thinking that they started figuring it out with the car," Smith said. "That was just the biggest thing. He wasn't very comfortable driving this car. Now, they figured it out. They went through all their gremlins. And their system is more to their liking. They probably feel like, ‘It’s back in our wheelhouse." They're probably going to have a good year." Elliott finished eighth in the standings last year, picking up two wins. Who has the most wins this season Pockrass: Kyle Larson Pockrass thinks we see another strong year out of the No. 5 car in 2026 following his second Cup Series win last year. "I don't see any reason why they're going to get any worse," Pockrass said. Harvick: Denny Hamlin Harvick believes that some external factors could come into play and lead to Hamlin having a strong year in 2026 following his second-place finish in 2025. "I could definitely make the argument for Larson, but there's still a lot of motivation for Denny Hamlin," Harvick said. "I just know he's talked about his shoulder being hurt, being through so many things with his family, losing the championship and his dad's passing and everything. I still believe there's some fire in there to motivate him and as a driver, every year you're looking for something to motivate you when you've done it that long. I hope that plays out, because I think he deserves it. I think sentiment for Denny Hamlin this year is going to be different. It started to shift last year. I believe that fan sentiment is going to be pretty positive this year as he rolls into the race track." Smith: Christopher Bell Similar to Harvick with Hamlin, Smith thinks that motivation will play a role in Bell getting the most wins in 2026 after his midseason struggles last year. "I almost went with his other teammate, Chase Briscoe, but Christopher Bell is highly, highly motivated to win a championship," Smith said. "That group is so fast. There's really not any holes in his game. So, I think there's a very good chance he ends the year with the most wins." Who will be the Cup Champion? Pockrass: Ryan Blaney Pockrass didn't offer an explanation for his pick, but Blaney has consistently been among the Cup Series' top drivers. His sixth-place finish last year came two years after his 2023 title and a year after his 2024 second-place finish. Harvick: William Byron Harvick thinks it's time for Byron to get over the hump following three top-five finishes. "It's just that maturity and the things that go with a team. I think he and Rudy have a great relationship," Harvick said. "They have worked through a lot of hard moments together, and that's what it takes to be the champ." Smith: Christopher Bell If Bell is going to get the most wins, why can't he win the Cup Championship? That's what Smith thinks of Bell entering 2026 as he had his fourth straight top-five finish in 2025. "Last year, I went with William Byron, and I still feel like the fire is there. But this year, I'm going with Christopher Bell. There's something about it with him, and I think it's his time."