Red Sox Get Alarming Power Projection For 2026 Lineup
The Boston Red Sox have a power problem.
It started last summer when they traded their best power hitter, Rafael Devers, to the San Francisco Giants in the middle of June. The Red Sox struggled to hit the ball over the fence in his absence, falling from 10th in home runs before the trade to 27th in home runs after the trade.
Boston had all offseason to address that issue, especially with several marquee sluggers like Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso available in free agency. The Red Sox went in a different direction, however, focusing on improving their starting pitching and defense without doing much for their lineup.
After losing Alex Bregman in free agency as well, Boston now enters 2026 with an offense that once again appears woefully short on pop. According to FanGraphs’ ZiPS projections, the Red Sox are the only team in baseball without a single hitter projected to hit at least 20 home runs this year.
That said, six Boston hitters are projected for at least 17 homers, so several of the team’s sluggers are at least in striking distance. A few will likely surpass expectations and top 20 homers, although there’s a real chance nobody swats 30 or even 25.
Looking at the Red Sox lineup, nobody feels like an absolute lock for 20 homers. Only three members reached that mark last year: Trevor Story (25), Wilyer Abreu (22) and Willson Contreras (20).
Story and Contreras are both 33, so they’re at the point of the aging curve where power begins to drop off a bit. Story has also been injury-prone recently, so he may not play a full season again like he did last year.
Abreu also missed time with injuries last year and wasn’t the same hitter after coming back. He’s also struggled against lefties throughout his career and has severe platoon splits, so he carries some question marks as well.
Anthony has 20-homer pop if he stays healthy, but he’s never done it in the big leagues before. Jarren Duran smacked 21 homers in 2024, so he’s capable of doing it again. Triston Casas also has a 20-homer season under his belt and could get there if he stays healthy.
Boston hasn’t gone a full season without a 20-home run hitter since 1992, so that would be incredibly rare if it does happen. It’s hard to play 81 games at Fenway Park and not hit a decent amount of dingers.
Regardless, it’s clear the Red Sox will have to rely on a different offensive strategy to score runs this year. Rather than waiting around for home runs, they’ll need to put the ball in play, get on base and use their speed to attack opposing defenses.
It’s an unfamiliar strategy for a franchise that’s typically built around sluggers, but it could still be an effective path to generating offense.