The surprising reason why Americans could face high beef prices for years

Beef prices are soaring — and economists warn Americans shouldn’t expect relief anytime soon, as the U.S. cattle herd shrinks to its smallest size in 75 years.

The massive decrease in cattle numbers has been caused by years of drought, soaring costs and an aging ranching workforce. Agricultural economists and ranchers alike say rebuilding herds will take years, meaning beef prices aren’t likely to ease anytime soon.

"The biggest thing has been drought," said Eric Belasco, head of the agricultural economics department at Montana State University. 

Years of dry weather have wiped out grasslands across the West and Plains, leaving ranchers without enough feed or water to sustain their herds. Many have been forced to sell cattle early, even the cows needed to produce the next generation of calves, making it difficult to rebuild America's herds.

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Data from the Kansas City Federal Reserve found that with each incremental increase in drought severity, cattle-producing regions see about a 12% drop in hay production, a 5% rise in hay prices, a 1% reduction in herd size and a 4% decline in farm income.

That slow recovery isn’t just economic — it’s biological, according to Derrell Peel, a professor of agricultural economics at Oklahoma State University.

"The fact of the matter is there’s really nothing anybody can do to change this very quickly," Peel said. "We’re in a tight supply situation that took several years to develop, and it’ll take several years to get out of it."

Peel, who specializes in livestock marketing, said it takes roughly two years to bring cattle to market and several years to rebuild herds — leaving little room for short-term relief.

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And once herds shrink, the loss is hard to reverse. 

That reality is unfolding deep in ranch country. Cole Bolton, owner of K&C Cattle Company, whose pastures stretch along the soft edge of the Texas Hill Country, said the cattle industry is still in the early stages of recovery.

"I think it’s going to take a while to fix this crisis that we’re in with the cattle shortage," Bolton told Fox News Digital. "My message to consumers is simple: folks, be patient. We’ve got to build back our herds."

About 1,000 miles away, Will Harris, a fourth-generation cattleman in Bluffton, Georgia, said the ripple effects of the shrinking cattle herd are now landing squarely on consumers.

"The American cattle herd is smaller than it has been since the 1950s and that contraction has pushed beef prices to historic highs. Demand is strong, but domestic supply simply isn’t meeting it and that gap is being felt most by consumers," said Harris, owner of White Oak Pastures.

According to U.S. Department of Agriculture data, the average price of beef in grocery stores climbed from about $8.40 per pound in March to $10.10 per pound by December 2025, a roughly 20% increase.

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Despite rising prices, Americans haven't blinked. In 2025, shoppers spent more than $45 billion on beef, buying more than 6.2 billion pounds, according to data from Beef Research, a contractor for the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association.

Spending jumped about 12% from a year earlier, while the amount of beef sold rose more than 4% — a sign consumers aren’t just paying more, they’re buying more.

The revelation comes as President Donald Trump temporarily expands beef imports from Argentina to blunt high grocery prices, while also laying out longer-term plans to bolster the U.S. cattle industry.

While imports could ease pressure at the grocery store in the short term, ranchers and economists alike say they are no substitutes for rebuilding the domestic cattle supply.