Nithya Raman’s entry tests Karen Bass from the left in Los Angeles mayoral race

Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman’s late entry into the mayoral race has upended what had been shaping up as a more conventional reelection contest for Mayor Karen Bass, injecting a progressive challenge that political analysts say could fundamentally alter the dynamics of the June primary — and make a runoff far more likely.

Political strategists and observers say Raman’s decision to run, made just hours before the filing deadline Saturday, presents a fundamentally different test for Bass than the challenges she faced in 2022. Instead of confronting a well-funded, center-right opponent, Bass faces a progressive lawmaker with a governing record at City Hall and credibility on housing and homelessness, widely seen as the race’s defining issues.

While Bass remains the frontrunner, analysts say Raman’s candidacy makes it harder for the mayor to consolidate progressive support in a crowded primary field — a shift that could have ripple effects beyond the mayoral race.

“This almost guarantees a runoff election,” said Dan Schnur, a longtime California political strategist. He said it would be “almost impossible” for Bass or any candidate to secure a 51% majority in a multi-candidate field.

Beyond the mechanics of the primary, analysts say Raman’s candidacy reshapes the strategic terrain of the race in ways Bass has not previously confronted.

”It’s going to be much more difficult for Bass to demonize a progressive opponent than a more conservative one,” Schnur said. “She won her first election by comparing Caruso to Donald Trump. Trying to link Raman to Bernie Sanders is not going to be nearly as effective.”

Former City Councilmember Mike Bonin, now executive director of the Pat Brown Institute and a prominent progressive during his tenure representing the Westside, said Raman’s candidacy is unlikely to unite the city’s progressive voice behind a single challenger. Organized labor and key Democratic constituencies — including much of the Black electorate — are expected to remain aligned with Bass, he said.

Bonin said Raman’s entry could nevertheless energize progressive voters and reshape dynamics beyond the mayor’s race, with potential ripple effects across down-ballot contests.

“ Not only does it shake up the mayor’s race, but it also has the effect of energizing the June electorate and reframing the city races in a way that probably helps down ballot progressives,” Bonin said, pointing to contests such as tenant rights attorney Faizah Malik’s challenge to Councilmember Traci Park in the 11th District and the reelection bid of Councilmember Eunisses Hernandez in District 1.

More broadly, Bonin said, Raman’s run reflects growing frustration among progressives who believe Bass has shifted toward the political center during her first term, creating space for a challenge from the left that would have seemed unlikely a few years ago.

“You never would’ve thought four years ago that there would be a challenge to Karen Bass from the left, because she has been progressively branded since the ’90s,” Bonin said. “But the mayor has spent a considerable period of time and political energy moving to the center and courting the Caruso vote without, I think, much success, and that has created a lot of frustration on the left.”

The Bass campaign moved quickly to underscore its support within City Hall, circulating a list of council members backing the mayor’s reelection, including Council President Marqueece Harris-Dawson and councilmembers Bob Blumenfield, Curren Price, John Lee, Hugo Soto-Martínez, Tim McOsker, Heather Hutt, Imelda Padilla and Adrin Nazarian.

Soto-Martínez, one of the council’s DSA-backed members, said he was “caught off guard” by Raman’s late entry but reiterated his support for Bass.

“While I recognize Nithya’s contributions to the city, I was caught off-guard by her last-minute maneuver, and I continue to strongly support Mayor Bass,” he said. “Even when we disagree, I’ve never doubted Mayor Bass and her long-standing commitment to the community.”

In a statement, Bass said she was “honored to have the support of these city leaders” and would continue pushing reforms that have led to “historic drops in both street homelessness and crime.”

Unlike Bass’ current and previous challengers who came from outside City Hall, Raman enters the race as a sitting council member with a governing record and deep familiarity with how city government works.

Raman, 44, is an urban planner who has served on the City Council since 2020, representing a geographically diverse Fourth District that spans Valley neighborhoods like Encino, Reseda, Sherman Oaks and Studio City to extend into parts of the Hollywood Hills and the Los Feliz/Griffith Park area.

She chairs the Council’s Housing and Homelessness Committee and has built her political identity around tenant protections, homelessness policy and efforts to accelerate housing production. Raman was the first City Council member elected with the backing of the Democratic Socialists of America, though her relationship with the city’s left flank has at times been uneven.

She backed measures that broaden just-cause eviction protections beyond rent-stabilized units, limiting when landlords can remove tenants — including in single-family rentals — to a defined set of circumstances such as nonpayment of rent, documented lease violations or owner move-ins. City officials have said the expansion brought roughly 400,000 additional units under eviction protections.

Raman’s housing record has also set her apart from City Hall’s broader consensus. She has generally favored increasing housing supply and higher-density development. While many council members and Mayor Bass opposed SB 79, a state bill that Gov. Gavin Newsom has since signed into law, allowing taller, denser apartments near transit stops, Raman declined to join that vote.

Raman initially supported Measure ULA, the city’s so-called mansion tax, which imposes a 4% tax on property sales above $5.3 million and a 5.5% tax on sales above $10 million. More recently she has pushed to revise that measure, arguing that it has discouraged new apartment construction at a time when Los Angeles faces an acute housing shortage.

Last month, she unsuccessfully pushed for a ballot measure that would have exempted newer apartment buildings from the tax for 15 years. The proposal drew sharp backlash from labor leaders and housing advocates who championed Measure ULA, and the City Council declined to advance it, instead sending the matter to committee for further review.

When asked Saturday how she would approach the mayor’s job differently, Raman said while the city has made progress reducing street homelessness, it has struggled to deliver basic services.

“We’re doing some things right,” Raman said, but argued that the city is struggling “on so many of the other issues that matter for Angelenos on an every day basis, like keeping our street lights on.”

“Right now, thousands of street lights are out across the City of Los Angeles,” she added. “It can take a year to repair a street light — a year. That is an unacceptably long amount of time.”

Raman’s entry also complicates a relationship that, until recently, had been publicly aligned. Bass supported Raman during her successful 2024 reelection bid, and just weeks before announcing her mayoral run, Raman endorsed Bass for reelection.

Raman said she informed the mayor of her decision before filing but declined to discuss the substance of their conversation.

“Like many of you, I was watching and waiting to see what would happen in the mayor’s race — and also to see how the mayor would talk about the challenges that we were facing ahead of us,” Raman told reporters Saturday after submitting her paperwork. “At this moment, I feel really strongly that I want to talk about those challenges.”

Political analyst Zev Yaroslavsky said Raman’s entry makes it increasingly likely the race will extend beyond June.

Raman, he said, is “a very smart and talented council member, who is well positioned to mobilize younger and more progressive voters,” though he said her late entry leaves little time to build a citywide campaign.

“It’s too early to predict how this will all turn out,” Yaroslavsky said. “But she has the potential to do it. In short, this will be a horse race.”