Bettors Love Caleb Williams For League MVP — And What It Would Actually Take
Matthew Stafford achieved what was the last true missing piece to what has been a Hall of Fame career in 2025, winning league MVP at age 38. It didn’t come easy. He barely beat out New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye by one vote, marking the closest race in 22 years. In hindsight, the league should be breathing a sigh of relief that it went that way. Imagine how it would’ve looked if Maye won the award and then had that ugly showing in the Super Bowl. The right man won. Now with the season over, all eyes are moving to 2026, with betting odds already listed for who will win the honor next season. It may shock you to learn the most bet-on person for this is none other than Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams.
His odds are currently listed at +1500, meaning if you bet $1,000 on him and he won, you’d be in line for $15,000. It is the right mix of calculated risk and plausibility.
One could argue that Williams even had a case for the award this season. He finished with 3,942 passing yards, 30 total touchdowns, and just 7 interceptions. He led seven 4th quarter comebacks, including one in the playoffs against the Green Bay Packers. A case can be made that nobody was more valuable to his team’s success. Unfortunately, winning MVP as a quarterback typically requires much more than that.
| MVP | Year | Stats |
| Matthew Stafford | 2025 | 4,707 yards, 46 TDs, 8 INTS |
| Josh Allen | 2024 | 3,731 yards, 40 total TDs, 6 INTs |
| Lamar Jackson | 2023 | 3,678 yards, 29 total TDs, 7 INTs |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2022 | 5,250 yards, 45 total TDs, 12 INTs |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2021 | 4,115 yards, 37 TDs, 4 INTs |
Caleb Williams must meet certain thresholds to have a chance.
Based on what the previous five MVPs accomplished, the numbers required to get into the MVP conversation are significant. On average, Williams would need 4,300 passing yards, 39 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. If that seems daunting, it should. No Bears quarterback has ever cracked 4,000 yards in a season in over a century, much less 4,300. None has thrown 30 touchdowns either. The interception part shouldn’t be a problem for Williams. He’s been particularly good at keeping that number low.
The good news is that he has some factors in his favor. Ben Johnson is his head coach. The man is unquestionably one of the best offensive minds in football. If he got what he did out of Caleb Williams in their first year together, one has to imagine they’ll be even better in year two as familiarity with the system sinks in. There are also the weapons involved. Colston Loveland is an emerging star. Luther Burden flashed tons of upside while Rome Odunze and D.J. Moore should be healthy. That group is capable of big things.
If Williams can improve his completion percentage to a more average NFL level (65%), his numbers should spike.
Williams is chasing a 49-year-old ghost.
The MVP award was instituted by the NFL in 1957. In all of that time, only one Bears player has claimed the honor. That was the late, great Walter Payton in 1977. His 1,852 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns (in 14 games) proved crucial to getting Chicago to the playoffs for the first time in 14 years. This includes a 275-yard performance against Minnesota while he was battling the flu. It was an epic campaign that laid the groundwork for one of the greatest careers in pro football history. Since then, Bears players have been chasing that ghost.
Frankly, none have come close. However, almost all of them didn’t have Caleb Williams’ talent. The MVP award has become the Best Quarterback Award these days. Chicago hasn’t had one anywhere near good enough to challenge the NFL elite. Until now. Everything has aligned like never before. The coach and supporting cast are in place. Williams has the obsessive work ethic to improve. If he stays healthy next season and refines some of the issues that dogged him last year, he can join Sweetness in that exclusive club.