How Texas Ended Up With the Wildest Senate Race in the Country

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No candidate on the ballot this year made a bigger splash simply by entering a race than Ken Paxton. The firebrand Texas Attorney General is giving U.S. Sen. John Cornyn a serious run for his money in the GOP primary, which in turn has launched an increasingly nasty fight among Democrats who view Paxton as beatable. Now, with early voting for the March 3 primary set to start next week, the mudslinging in both races is expected to soar, according to insiders with both parties watching with skittishness from Texas and Washington.

Texas was not supposed to be a problem child for Senate Republicans this cycle. The state has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in over three decades—since 1994. Cornyn, a sharp pol who is a holdover from the George W. Bush era, was widely expected to cruise to a fifth term this November. But along the way, the race has turned into a political dilemma for both sides.

The fulcrum for both parties’ chaos is Paxton, a polarizing figure whose potential strength among MAGA die-hards has triggered Cornyn’s allies to dump $50 million and counting on ads to prop up the incumbent. Just Monday, polling from the University of Houston showed Paxton leading by seven points with 38% of the vote, followed by Cornyn at 31%, and a third candidate, Rep. Wesley Hunt, drawing 17% support. Cornyn, who was once seen as the heir to epic Senate Leader Mitch McConnell, now finds himself in the political fight of his life.

Across the aisle, the prospect of Paxton winning the GOP nomination has galvanized Democrats—who face a head-vs-heart choice between two rising liberal stars. Rep. Jasmine Crockett has emerged as one of her party’s fiercest messengers, a sharp-tongued partisan who makes few apologies for her pluck. State Rep. James Talarico, meanwhile, is a head-down pragmatist who speaks about his Christian faith fluently, and has drawn an impressive national following of his own. It’s as if AOC and Mayor Pete were on a collision course for the same prize. That poll showing Paxton in the lead among Republicans also found Crockett ahead of Talarico by eight points.

At a moment of maximum tension in both parties over political purity tests, identity politics, and the political power of Trumpism, the Texas race has become the ultimate Petri dish for the biggest questions in electoral politics in 2026. 

Ultimately, both parties face the same dilemma: the candidate on track to win their primary is seen as less competitive in November.

Crockett vs. Talarico

For Democrats, the Texas intraparty squabble has exposed a raw nerve over the party’s path forward—one finally not dictated by generational change but rather tone. Crockett, age 44, and Talarico, age 36, are both digital natives who know how to get their messages out, even if they are at times in conflict.

For months, the primary was shuffling along amiably between Talarico and former Rep. Colin Allred, a retired NFL player. Things quickly grew more contentious in December, when Crockett decided to jump in, prompting Allred to forgo his Senate bid to vie for the seat Crockett is vacating. Talarico, meanwhile, has built strong national buzz with an unexpected media tour that laced progressive politics with religious values.

An early sign of the growing hostility in the race came in January when podcasters Bowen Yang and Matt Rogers veered into the Texas primary. In a drive-by comment, Rogers suggested donating to Crockett was pointless. “Don’t waste your money sending to Jasmine Crockett, do not do it. You’re going to waste your money,” Rogers said. Yang agreed. The backlash was immediate and palpable. Both comedians apologized

Things got feistier in a Jan. 24 debate. “It’s not about who sounds as clean as possible. It is about tapping into the rawness of this moment,” said Crockett, a civil rights lawyer. “I will do the edgy things, the things that the political consultants will never tell you to do, because right now, people are hurting.”

Talarico instead stressed common cause. “We will not win this race in November with the same old politics of division,” the Presbyterian seminarian said.

Then, the whole train went off the rails last week as differing versions of a private conversation between Talarico and a Texas-based influencer spilled into the public. “James Talarico told me that he signed up to run against a mediocre Black man, not a formidable and intelligent Black woman,” Morgan Thompson said of a January chat that was never supposed to have been made public. Allred replied with fire, throwing his support to Crockett and suggesting Talarico’s rhetoric was born of personal insecurity during an intense online video. Talarico described the whole incident as “a mischaracterization of a private conversation.” But he also showed plenty of fight: “I described Congressman Allred’s method of campaigning as mediocre—but his life and service are not.”

All the while, Crockett has allowed allies to train their fire on Talarico, whose own allies are readying a rush of ads to defend him ahead of next week’s start to early voting.

Cornyn vs. Paxton (and Hunt)

On the GOP side of the ledger, Republicans face a three-way jumble that was not expected even last fall. Over 20 years, Cornyn has built a machine of campaign vets and deep-pocketed donors who still see value in steady-as-she-goes stewardship of a party with a fragile majority in the Upper Chamber. Paxton, a right-winger who has cast himself as a steady ally of Trump, has a long list of scandals to his name. In 2023, the Republican-led state House impeached him on charges including bribery and abuse of public trust; the Senate ultimately acquitted him. A year after his impeachment squeaker, he reached a deal with prosecutors to drop felony securities fraud charges against him without admitting guilt.

Both Paxton’s baggage and his history of using his office to troll Democrats is a central feature in the Republican primary, which has devolved into a barrage of personal attacks of betrayal, adultery, and corruption. As one Texas insider explained to me, Cornyn is the national candidate who isn’t exactly loved at home, while Paxton draws adoration from partisans at home who may show up to send a message that what’s happening in Washington is not to their tastes.

Further adding to the drama is last month’s special election in Texas, which yielded a 31-point swing away from Republicans, prompting some to forecast a massive Democratic wave looming.

As Cornyn, Paxton, and Hunt jockey for votes, the ever-unpredictable Trump is looming in the background. So far, Trump has not endorsed anyone in the Texas primary. Several Republican strategists told me with dread that the President may not be able to resist the shiny object there—though he’d have to pick between Paxton and Hunt, a second-term House member from the Houston suburbs who is also seen as a MAGA favorite. Hunt’s campaign homepage has a photo of him with Trump, both flashing big smiles and with their thumbs up.

So far, Senate Majority Leader John Thune has kept Trump’s kindling dry, unlike Louisiana where Trump endorsed a challenger to Sen. Bill Cassidy to the frustration of party elders. A Trump endorsement, though, would be a seismic event—one that Trump might see as too tempting to skip.

While all the focus in Texas is on the March 3 primary, it is likely to only settle the Democratic side of the fight. With Cornyn facing both Paxton and Hunt, Republicans may have to wait until a primary run-off in May if no one ends the night with 51% of the vote.

For Republicans, it’s a question of the Establishment versus MAGA’s eclipsing power. For Democrats, it’s a choice between a Resistance champion or someone who can woo the center.

For now, Paxton is the driving force in both parties, in Texas and, in a way, even nationally. If Democrats are going to capture the Senate in November’s elections—and effectively block Trump’s agenda for the two years that follow—they need to figure out who is best suited to defeat the GOP nominee. If Republicans want to shut all that down, they have to decide if they’re invested in a Paxton-(or-Hunt-)for-Cornyn swap. It’s a delicate conversation about electability that is usually discussed in far less blunt terms. Not this time. Now, it’s a main topic. And, boy, is it ugly down there in Texas.

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