What the data really says about Liverpool’s recent form

Liverpool’s recent form continues to divide opinion, with performances often feeling stronger than results, but the underlying numbers suggest that the warning signs are beginning to stack up.

Sunday’s 2-1 defeat to Manchester City at Anfield was cruel in its timing, yet it was also historically significant in ways that underline a broader pattern.

According to analysis by Michael Reid, writing on Substack, Liverpool had not lost a Premier League home game after scoring first since April 2017, a 109-game unbeaten run that came to an abrupt end when Erling Haaland converted a stoppage-time penalty.

That goal, timed at 92:42, was the latest winning strike ever scored by an away team at Anfield in the Premier League era, and it took something close to unprecedented chaos for us to be beaten.

In isolation, it would be easy to write the result off as misfortune.

Manchester City are second in the league, possess the division’s most prolific goalscorer, and required a late penalty to win a match Liverpool were leading until the 84th minute.

But context matters, and the wider picture is more uncomfortable.

Liverpool recent form stats show worrying patterns

Liverpool have now conceded four 90th-minute winners in Premier League matches this season, which is already joint-most by any team in a single campaign.

That trend speaks less to bad luck and more to an inability to control games late on, particularly when protecting narrow leads.

Against City, Liverpool recorded just 47% possession, generated 1.21 expected goals, and allowed the visitors to post an xG of 2.75..

The first half was especially concerning, with Liverpool failing to register a single shot on target while Manchester City recorded 10 attempts, the joint-most we have ever faced in the opening half of a home league game since records began in 2003-04.

While the second half was a clear improvement, with Dominik Szoboszlai’s free-kick briefly swinging momentum, the overall statistical profile still leans towards vulnerability rather than control.

Michael Reid summed it up succinctly when he wrote: “It was agonising, and on its own was far from Liverpool’s worst result, and indeed performance, of the season.

“But when you factor in the wider context, it’s part of a line of patterns that simply can’t be ignored.”

Why Liverpool performances and results are drifting apart

There is also a growing sense that individual errors are compounding these issues.

Jamie Carragher was blunt in his assessment of the penalty incident, saying Alisson’s decision-making reflected a wider problem of unforced mistakes creeping into Liverpool’s season.

Gary Neville struck a more balanced tone, describing the defeat as “a tough take” but stressing that Liverpool were dominant for large parts of the second half and should not allow the result to derail belief.

That balance between resilience and fragility is where Liverpool currently sit.

The league table reflects it too.

Liverpool are sixth on 39 points, five behind fourth-placed Manchester United, with Chelsea also ahead and little margin for error remaining.

With a trip to Sunderland coming up and a depleted squad, this is a moment where Liverpool need control, clarity, and results, not just encouraging spells.

The data suggests that while Liverpool are not playing badly in isolation, the trends point towards a team struggling to manage key moments.

And in a season this tight, those moments are defining us far more than the performances we want to remember.

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