Japan’s ruling party secures historic election victory – but challenges lie ahead

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s conservative Liberal Democratic party (LDP) has secured the biggest election victory seen in Japan since the end of the second world war. In elections on February 8, it won 316 seats out of a total of 465 in the lower house of Japan’s parliament. The Japan Innovation party, its junior coalition partner, secured a further 36 seats.

Many had predicted an LDP win. Takaichi called the snap election in January to capitalise on her high approval ratings since becoming Japan’s first female prime minister months earlier. But few had anticipated the strength of her support, with the LDP emerging as the most popular party across all age groups.

The results are humiliating for the main opposition Centrist Reform Alliance, which was formed ahead of the election through a merger of the centre-left Constitutional Democratic party and the centrist Kōmeitō party. The alliance failed to make an impact. It won just 49 seats, down from a pre-election total of 172, prompting leadership duo Yoshihiko Noda and Tetsuo Saito to announce their resignation.

Backed by Japan’s largest trade union federation, Rengo, the centrist Democratic Party for the People added one seat to bring its total in the lower house to 28. The left-wing populist Reiwa Shinsengumi party only won a single seat, down from eight. And the Japanese Communist party lost four seats, reducing its total to four. Team Mirai, a new AI-focused party headed by computer scientist Takahiro Anno, won 11 seats.

The results confirm a shift to the right in Japanese public opinion, following the trend from upper house elections in 2025 in which the right-wing populist Sanseitō party won 14 seats. Sanseitō has been overshadowed by Takaichi’s success in this election. But it has added 13 seats, bringing its total in the lower house to 15. This makes it the third-largest opposition party in the chamber.

The election does not immediately alter Japan’s political landscape. The LDP has dominated Japanese politics for decades, having been the ruling party almost continuously since its formation in 1955. Yet the election is highly significant both for the LDP’s factional politics as well as policymaking.

The election victory marks the resurgence of the party’s right. Takaichi’s conservative allies, many of whom were embroiled in a corruption scandal, returned as MPs in this election. And the two-thirds majority will allow the LDP to pass bills in the lower house that have been rejected by the upper house.

It will also now be possible to trigger referendums for constitutional reform, which figures on the right of the LDP have long campaigned for. This reform will include recognising the Japan Self-Defense Forces as a permanent military through a revision of article nine, the pacifist clause in Japan’s constitution. A referendum on this is now a realistic possibility.

Meanwhile, Takaichi’s emphasis on preserving traditional values means that progressive issues such as same-sex marriage are off the table for the foreseeable future. And her party has announced plans for “anti-spy” surveillance laws and a revision of the principles of nuclear non-proliferation. It has also promised greater regulation around foreigners in response to hardening public attitudes against migration and excessive tourism.

Challenges ahead

While Takaichi’s control of the legislature is rock solid, there are challenges ahead. Takaichi’s aggressive fiscal policy includes increased defence spending and freezing the consumption tax on food and drink. The stock market has welcomed Takaichi’s victory, but there is a risk of a bond sell-off if Japan’s currently high levels of debt become unsustainable.

Geopolitics also remains a source of uncertainty. In her January meeting with the South Korean president, Lee Jae Myung, Takaichi emphasised strong cooperation between the two countries. But Japan’s relationship with another neighbour, China, has soured in recent months.

In November, Takaichi remarked that Japan may be forced to respond militarily in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan. China responded by imposing trade restrictions on seafood imports from Japan, months after it partly lifted a previous ban issued in 2023. Prior to that ban, the Chinese market accounted for around one-fifth of Japanese seafood exports.

The Chinese government also advised its citizens against travel to Japan. This advice remains in place. Takaichi’s hawkish stance on defence is likely to be a source of tension in east Asian politics moving forward.

The so-called “history problem”, which refers to the unresolved disputes Japan has with neighbouring countries over its wartime actions in the 1930s and 1940s, may reemerge. Official visits to the controversial Yasukuni shrine where Japanese war dead including military leaders are honoured are a possible source of tension.

Takaichi visited Yasukuni when she was a government minister and, following the election, said she was working to “create an environment” that would enable her to visit as prime minister. Critics in China and South Korea see visits to the shrine as an endorsement of Japan’s imperialist past, and have reacted angrily to past official visits.

Her premiership also comes at a time when the future of the US-Japan alliance, the backbone of Japan’s national security, is increasingly uncertain. The interests of the US under Donald Trump have shifted towards dealing with threats closer to home, with the White House’s recent national security strategy demanding that traditional US allies assume greater responsibility for their own regions.

Takaichi’s political legacy is yet to be made. But through this election alone, she has already made history. Her premiership will undeniably leave a deep mark on Japanese society for years to come.

Rin Ushiyama was the recipient of a British Academy Postdoctoral Fellowship (2017-21) “The survival and reproduction of historical revisionism in Japanese public discourse: 1996-present.”