What Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s Election Means for Thailand and the World

When TIME sat down with Anutin Charnvirakul late last month, Thailand’s Prime Minister was feeling the strain of the campaign trail. The 59-year-old grumbled that gladhanding throngs of supporters in dusty villages had left him prey to bugs and viruses. “I meet so many people and sometimes maybe they have caught a cold,” Anutin said from Bangkok’s neo-Gothic Government House. “I hear them coughing and try to hold my breath. But I might not be able to do that 100%.”

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Still, Anutin held yet another rally that very evening, and the sacrifice appears to have paid off handsomely. His conservative Bhumjaithai Party won the most seats in Thailand’s general election on Sunday, besting a progressive movement that had been surging for years but lost its shine amid rising nationalism and economic doldrums.

With 90% of the vote counted, Bhumjaithai had 194 seats of the 500-seat House of Representatives, with the progressive People’s Party coming second with 116 seats, per an Election Commission tally, meaning Anutin will almost certainly retain the Southeast Asia nation’s top job, albeit as head of a coalition.

“We will accept the decision of the people in giving us the confidence, the trust to the Bhumjaithai Party,” Anutin told reporters at his party’s headquarters in Bangkok late Sunday.

Here are five takeaways from TIME’s sweeping interview with Anutin regarding his plans for the nation of 70 million.

1. Military influence here to stay

Anutin’s victory capitalized on resurgent nationalism after months of bloody skirmishes between Thailand and Cambodia over their disputed frontier. While the progressive movement campaigned on reducing the bloated military’s role in politics and business, the border spat emboldened Anutin to portray himself as a hawkish patriot protecting national pride and security. However, he also talked up his good relationship with Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Manet, whom he described as “very intelligent and capable” to TIME. “I always had great respect for him.”

While pinning blame on Cambodia for the bloodshed, Anutin spoke about the imperative to harmonize regional maps to permanently rectify the dispute. However, he declined to take back political authority on border security, which had been devolved to the military itself, empowering the brass hats full discretion to respond to perceived affronts with deadly force. “Every move we would sit together and jointly decide, so we work as a team,” says Anutin. “I don’t have to bring back any authority.”

2. Progressive pain

The results were a blow to the People’s Party, which was hoping to build on its predecessor Move Forward Party’s electoral success in 2023, when it secured a plurality 151 legislative seats. (However, it was blocked from forming a government by the Senate and then dissolved by the Constitutional Court.) While jingoistic support for the military was Anutin’s secret weapon, the progressive’s antagonist view of green uniforms turned out to be its kryptonite. Despite receiving the second largest number of votes, People’s Party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut ruled out joining Bhumjaithai in government and instead vowed to hold Anutin’s government to account in opposition. “Don’t lose hope,” Natthaphong told tearful supporters. “We’ve come so far.”

Certainly, Bhumjaithai’s resounding victory provides grist for Anutin’s argument that Thais are not hankering after radical reform as the progressives maintain. “Division is actually from the media and the people who could not win,” he told TIME. “Rather than going back to improve themselves, they tend to blame other stuff.”

However, alongside casting constituency and party ballots, Thais also voted in a referendum on whether to draft a new constitution, with preliminary tallies suggesting some 65% had voted in favor. How that new charter looks will be the next battleground, with progressives keen to amend sections on the establishment-stocked Senate and royal prerogatives—but Anutin, in the driving seat, dead against.

3. Resurgent royalism

Other than aligning with Thailand’s armed forces, Anutin is also close to its sacrosanct royal palace, accompanying King Maha Vajiralongkorn during a four-day visit to Bhutan in April as well as his historic visit to China in November. In 2023, the Move Forward Party campaigned on curbing royal powers, though efforts to reform Thailand’s draconian royal defamation law, known as lèse-majesté or Article 112, were deemed unconstitutional and led to the party’s dissolution by the Constitutional Court.

As such, the People’s Party was forced to sidestep this keystone issue in its latest campaign. With the openly royalist Anutin receiving a strong mandate, you can expect efforts to curb royal powers to remain firmly on the backburner. Asked about his relationship with King Vajiralongkorn, Anutin told TIME: “I don’t dare have a relationship with any royal family member, but I’m his humble servant.”

4. It’s the economy, buffalo!

Thailand is already being branded the new “sick man of Asia” following years of torpid growth owed in large part to relentless political turmoil. (Its economy expanded by only 1.5% last year.) Anutin hopes that his resounding mandate can at least provide a modicum of stability while he enacts his pro-business agenda. He advocates creating new jobs by promoting industries from emerging global growth sectors, such as electric vehicles, medical and wellness services, bio-technology, and the digital economy.

But economists warn more structural reform is required to truly arrest Thailand’s economic tailspin. This includes breaking up the monopolies—family-linked conglomerates dominate key sectors such as energy, retail, telecommunications, and food, with the top 5% of companies controlling over 85% of total revenue—something Anutin told TIME he is determined to tackle. But with such action against the interests of his elite backers, only time will tell whether he will truly walk the talk. “Structural reform is never painless—but postponing it is far more costly,” he says.

5. Thailand to keep international balance act

Thailand is America’s oldest ally in Asia while also boasts a thriving ethnically Chinese diaspora, including Anutin, whose ancestors hail from Guangdong province. However, Anutin also spent eight years studying and working in New York and feels a great affinity for the U.S. He says that Thailand refuses to take sides in this new era of Great Power competition. 

“We consistently stand by the rules-based international order and the norms agreed upon by the global community,” he told TIME. “In a polarized world, countries that remain pragmatic and reliable become more valuable, not less.”

Anutin also wants to play a role within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to bring a lasting peace to war-ravaged neighbor Myanmar, whose ruling junta recently underwent its own election that has been widely condemned as a sham. “Engagement does not mean endorsement,” Anutin says. “We work with all sides to reduce suffering and support ASEAN-led solutions. Thailand prioritizes humanitarian access, regional stability, and the safety of civilians. While ASEAN has a non-interference policy, violence against civilians is a clear moral boundary.”