International And Domestic Impact Of The Maldives-Mauritius Dispute Over The Chagos Islands – Analysis

The revival of the Maldives-Mauritius dispute over the Chagos Islands and the waters around them has significant implications for the strategic interests of the US, UK, and India in the Indian Ocean, as well as for President Muizzu's standing among the Maldivian electorate.  

The Maldivian President, Dr Mohamed Muizzu, has taken a belligerent stance against Mauritius, following the UK and Mauritius' agreement in May 2025, under which Mauritius will acquire sovereignty over the Chagos Islands but lease Diego Garcia to the UK for 99 years. The UK, in turn, will allow the US to continue using its base in Diego Garcia. Maldives protested against the deal as it says that the Chagos Islands should have been transferred to it because-

1. The islands are closer to it than they are to Mauritius - Diego Garcia is only 310 miles from Malé, the Maldivian capital, while it is 1,300 miles from Port Louis, the capital of Mauritius.

2. Historically, Maldivian fishermen had been visiting the island,  proof of which still exists.

"The Maldives has historical connections to the Chagos Islands – known to us as Foalhavahi – which lie south of Maldivian waters," President Muizzu told the Daily Express, a British tabloid, in January. "These connections are based on documentary evidence, and we believe gives the Maldives a greater claim than any other country," he argued. 

Maldivians knew of the Chagos Islands centuries before colonial powers arrived in the Indian Ocean. Maldivian ancestors named it in the Dhivehi language, Muizzu said, and cited mentions in Maldivian navigation documents about Maldivians "going fishing there day-to-day with ease."

There are 900-year-old gravestones on Chagos etched in the Maldivian language, Dhivehi, predating the arrival of people in Mauritius. Mauritius was uninhabited before the 17th century when Dutch, French, and British colonialists arrived. There is a 16th Century patent from a Maldivian King asserting sovereignty over the islands. DNA evidence showed that modern Chagossians have Maldivian and Creole heritage.

Timeline of Events  

In February 2019, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that continuing British occupation of the Chagos Islands is illegal. After this, the UN General Assembly, through a non-binding resolution, called upon Britain to cede Chagos to Mauritius within six months. The Maldives voted against the resolution, along with the UK, US, Australia, Israel, and Hungary, because it could undermine a 2010 bid to establish the outer limits of the continental shelf between the Maldives and Chagos.

In April 2023, an International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) apportioned 47,232 square kilometres to the Maldives and 45,331 square kilometres to Mauritius. 

Bolstered by the ICJ opinion on the issue, Mauritius asked ITLOS to delimit the maritime boundary in the overlapping Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs).

Subsequently, Maldives toned down its opposition to the transfer of Chagos  Islands to Mauritius. In October 2022, the Maldivian Attorney General, Ibrahim Riffath, said that President Ibrahim Solih had informed the Mauritius Prime Minister in August that the Maldives would vote in favour of Mauritius on a General Assembly resolution about the return of the Chagos Isands to Mauritius.

Solih's backing down from a traditional Maldivian stand on the issue, unleashed a political firestorm in the Maldives. The opposition accused the Solih administration of "treason" and "selling" Maldivian territorial waters. Former President Abdulla Yameen alleged bribery, while former President Mohamed Nasheed called asked Solih to reject the transfer directive.

Muizzu took office in November 2023 with a pledge to reclaim the Chagos islands and the waters around them. The Attorney General formed a three-member committee to review the case and to recover the forfeited territory from the "Maldivian sea."

Based on the advice of international experts, President Muizzu asked the Attorney General Ahmed Usham to present a position paper to the cabinet. Legal proceedings were initiated thereafter. 

Muizzu reversed the previous administration's recognition of Mauritius's sovereignty over the archipelago.

He told parliament on Thursday that Maldives does not recognise any changes to the territories already defined in the country's Constitution. He rejected the maritime boundary drawn between the Maldives and the Chagos Islands by the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLS) in 2023, which had divided the Exclusive Economic Zones.  

He said that the government will revise the Maritime Zones Act of 1996 to this effect. He also announced plans to amend the law to formally designate a 200-nautical-mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) as sovereign "Maldivian territory."

The government has since formally communicated its decision to withdraw the August 2022 letter written by President Solih to the Mauritian Prime Minister Pravind Kumar Jugnauth. Muizzu's letter notes that the sudden and unexplained change in the position made by the previous Solih administration, midway through the ITLOS proceedings, had hurt the Maldives' interests in the case. Furthermore, the government held that this shift was "unreasonable, unjustified, and made without due process."

Muizzu said that he had brought the matter to the attention of the British Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy during a phone call on December 15, 2025, and sought talks on the issue. The Maldives had formally objected to the British government on November 8, 2024 and again on January 18, 2026.

Following the President's address on Thursday, the Maldivian National Defence Force (MNDF) started patrolling the disputed maritime zone.

Trump's Somersault 

Following the UK-Mauritius agreement of May 2025, US President Donald Trump condemned the deal in harsh terms. Presumably, he feared that a pro-Chinese or a pro-Indian government in Mauritius could terminate the lease and the US would lose Diego Garcia base. 

The Maldivians were happy with Trump's castigation. But joy was short-lived because Trump and the British Prime Minister Keir Starmer made up. Trump then described the deal as the best under the circumstances for the UK and the US .

Be that as it may, President Muizzu decided not to slacken his stance. He continued to press the Maldives' claim, exploiting popular support over the issue. Support on this could yield votes for his party, the Peoples' National Congress (PNC), in the March 28 local body elections. These elections are crucial for Muizzu, whose ratings have come down because of his inability to manage Maldives' debts. A recent poll had found that former President Abdulla Yameen was the single most popular leader.  Yameen topped the rankings with an average score of 5.6 out of 10, placing him clearly ahead of the other leaders.

Nasheed's Speculation 

Meanwhile, former President Mohamed Nasheed stated that Muizzu's stepped- up actions on the Chagos issue could be having the prior but tacit consent of the UK and the US.

In a post on X, Nasheed said that Trump's concurrence with the UK's decision did not necessarily mean that he actually agreed with ceding the Chagos Islands to Mauritius.

"The US and UK can now state that the Maldives' claim should be investigated. They can say Chagos cannot be handed over to Mauritius," Nasheed said.

He also maintained that recent operations in the EEZ by the Maldivian Coast Guard could have been conducted with the tacit approval of the UK and US.

Muizzu's Offer to US

Interestingly, Muizzu, a pro-China leftist, has moved close to the US. In an interview to Newsweek, he had offered to let the US maintain its military presence on Diego Garcia if sovereignty was transferred to the Maldives.

"President Trump clearly seeks to protect and secure the continuation of the use of Chagos for the US Naval Support Facility at Diego Garcia," Muizzu said, adding that he would "seek approval of this through the Maldivian parliament as per our constitution, to facilitate the continuation of the status quo."

Implications of India's Support for Mauritius

The Maldives-Mauritius dispute has great implications for India, an Indian Ocean power. India has been a consistent supporter of Mauritius, mainly because 70% of the people of Mauritius are of Indian origin, who are mainly from Bihar and Uttar Pradesh in North India, the centre of power in India lies.

The foreign and security policies of Mauritius have been heavily influenced by India. Its National Security Advisor has always been an Indian nominee. There has never been a threat of Mauritius becoming pro-China, which cannot be said of the Maldives. In fact, President Abdulla Yameen and Mohamed Muizzu had led an "India Out" campaign.   

No wonder an Indian External Affairs Ministry statement said, after the transfer of sovereignty over Chagos to Mauritius, that India has consistently supported Mauritius' legitimate claim over the Chagos Archipelago in keeping with its principled position on decolonisation, respect for sovereignty, and the territorial integrity of nations.

"As a steadfast and longstanding partner of Mauritius, India remains committed to working closely with Mauritius and other like-minded countries to strengthen maritime security and regional stability and ensure peace and prosperity in the Indian Ocean region," the Indian statement said.

The Maldives and Mauritius are different kettles of fish. Unlike Mauritius, Maldives is a 100% Muslim country, and India is 80% Hindu. 

However, President Solih's regime was markedly pro-India. An not surprisingly, Solih had told the Mauritian PM that the Maldives would support Mauritius'  case on the Chagos Islands. 

Muizzu's stand on Chagos Islands against Mauritius could well strain Indo-Maldivian ties. How New Delhi will handle the dispute now will be keenly watched in the Indian Ocean region. What the UK and the mercurial Donald Trump will do in the months to come will also have a great impact on Male, Port Louis and New Delhi.