Possibility of second flu wave in Cyprus remains open, expert warns

The possibility of a second wave of influenza in Cyprus remains open, despite the epidemiological picture currently appearing stable, Professor of Microbiology and Molecular Virology at the University of Nicosia Medical School Petros Karayiannis has told the Cyprus News Agency.

Karayiannis cautioned that existing data do not allow for complacency, noting that infections continue to be recorded, even though no sharp surge is currently placing severe pressure on the health system.

“At the moment we are seeing continuous cases, but not a serious outbreak,” he said, adding that despite this, the health system is facing increased challenges. These difficulties, he explained, are largely linked to the need to isolate patients with different infections in separate wards.

Whether a second wave with a noticeable surge will materialise, or whether different viruses will continue circulating at manageable levels, remains uncertain, he said.

“It is something we cannot know at this stage,” Karayiannis said, stressing the uncertainty that characterises the current period.

Karayiannis said the prospect of a second flu wave is “real”, as there has so far been no significant circulation of influenza B, which typically peaks around this time of year.

Instead, he said, influenza A strains are dominant, with the new K sub-variant being the most prevalent.

He also pointed to an unusual rise in cases of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) among older people, describing this as a cause for concern.

RSV typically affects young children and usually appears earlier in the winter, around late December. This year, however, “things are mixed up and the usual pattern has not been followed,” he said, attributing part of this shift to the emergence of the K sub-variant.

Asked whether the possible second wave is linked to the new strain or to low population immunity, Karayiannis said both factors are relevant.

There is currently no community immunity against the K sub-variant, as it is new, while existing immunity mainly concerns earlier influenza A strains. Nevertheless, he said that this background immunity, combined with vaccination, still offers significant protection.

Karayiannis reminded the public that this year’s flu vaccines include two influenza A strains and one influenza B strain. While vaccination does not fully prevent infection, it significantly reduces the severity of illness and the risk of hospitalisation.

Asked whether vaccination still makes sense at this stage, he said there is still time, noting that it takes around 15 days for full immunity to develop.

Several scientists in Europe, he added, estimate that influenza activity could continue into March.

On vaccine effectiveness, Karayiannis cited data from the United States and the United Kingdom indicating that this year’s vaccine offers protection of up to 50 per cent, compared with an average of around 65 per cent in other years.

“Even if someone becomes infected, symptoms are clearly milder and do not lead to severe illness,” he said.

He noted that symptoms are not expected to differ significantly from those seen in the first wave, except in young children, who may also experience gastrointestinal symptoms.

Health system readiness

Complications from influenza primarily affect the very elderly and vulnerable individuals, Karayiannis said. While flu-related deaths in Cyprus remain limited, he noted an increase this year, adding that in countries such as Greece, between 20 and 25 deaths are recorded each week.

Regarding health system preparedness, he said that based on current briefings, readiness levels are adequate, and if necessary, beds can be made available from other medical specialties.

On Covid-19, Karayiannis said the virus continues to show fluctuations throughout the year, as it is no longer considered seasonal.

He stressed that laboratory testing remains the only reliable way to distinguish between influenza and Covid-19, as symptoms are similar and do not allow for a definitive diagnosis without testing.