Why are Conservatives hard to lead? Just look at how many different kinds there are
OTTAWA — During a ceremony this week to unveil his official portrait, former prime minister Stephen Harper made a point of mentioning the tie he’s wearing in the painting.
The colours, the former prime minister pointed out during the ceremony in downtown Ottawa, represent the three key elements of Canada’s Conservatives: dark blue for the “Tories of old,” green for the “western, populist tradition” and Preston Manning’s Reform Party, and sky blue for the conservative tradition of Quebec nationalists and francophones across the country.
In reality, however, according to political analysts and academics, the fictitious tie was short at least a few colours.
The Conservative Party of Canada, those political specialists say, is the most complicated political recipe in the country, with more distinct major elements than their rival Liberals or New Democrats. Beyond those streams represented on Harper’s tie, other key ingredients include libertarians, social conservatives, fiscal conservatives, national sovereigntists who often focus on issues such as immigration and national culture, and cultural populists who prioritize the fight against the woke agenda.
Understanding the complexity of the Conservative brew goes a long way in explaining the party’s makeup and electoral challenges. With Pierre Poilievre fresh off a resounding endorsement to resume his role as party leader, it also illustrates why the Conservative party is considered by many academics, political analysts and Conservatives themselves to be the country’s most difficult party to lead or unify.
One Conservative source who has played a prominent role in national campaigns said the fundamental challenge is that the party is largely values-based, but that each stream has its own set of values, even if there are overlaps. “The Conservative party is incredibly challenging to lead,” the source said.
But the challenges extend far beyond philosophical debates in the various cafeterias on Parliament Hill. The Conservative party’s disparate root system, along with the fact that its natural base is in less populous regions of the country, also makes it more difficult to win federal elections, at least when compared to the Liberals.
“The Conservative Party of Canada, to form a majority government, requires a perfect storm,” said André Lecours, a political science professor at the University of Ottawa.
Any political party can be seen as a Venn diagram of interests or factions, political analysts acknowledge, where groups agree on certain things but not others.
The core streams within the NDP, for example, include trade unionists, environmentalists and socialists with different pockets and interests that often reflect regional characteristics. All the groups support a more aggressive government involvement in the economy and other realms, but may not be in sync, for example, where the green agenda is at odds with the interests of large factories that employ thousands of workers. The Liberals include left-of-centre and more business-oriented supporters with similar gulfs but, analysts say, those differences are often covered over in the common desire to govern.
Lori Turnbull, a political scientist at Dalhousie University in Halifax, said the Conservative party is the most difficult to lead, in part because of its number of distinct streams. The NDP has fewer factions than the Tories, she said, and the Liberals’ streams tend to be less pronounced.
Patrice Dutil, a political science professor at Toronto Metropolitan University and a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute think tank, said the distinct Conservative party elements are also more difficult to reconcile.
“They have dramatically opposed factions,” said Dutil, also co-editor of a new book on Canadian prime ministers and their cabinets.
But at first blush, at least for now, Poilievre has the various streams flowing pretty much in the same direction.
Poilievre, who has been seen as leaning into the populist and fiscal conservative streams during much of his political career, has strong support throughout the party. Conservative sources say Poilievre emphasizes the common themes, such as freedom and fiscal conservatism, within the party’s factions. During the party’s leadership review in Calgary last week, he won support from 87 per cent of his party’s delegates.
The hurdle that he’ll need to get over, however, like with his many predecessors at the Tory helm, will be keeping most of the party members happy — or at least subdued — most of the time.
“He definitely has a tough job,” said Sanjay Jeram, a political scientist at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver.
The history of the party illustrates the challenge.
Former Conservative prime minister Brian Mulroney, for example, considered a master at employing his charm, caucus rallying cries, and late-night phone calls to keep his disparate caucus stitched together, ultimately failed spectacularly in this regard.
Near the end of the first of Mulroney’s two, four-year terms, many Conservatives in the West were fed up with what they viewed as essentially more of the same.
In 1987, Preston Manning’s Reform Party was founded, based on Western, populist traditions, social conservatism, and a desire to reflect grassroots conservative principles. Reform grew quickly and elected its first member, Deborah Grey, during a 1989 byelection, just four years before its big breakthrough. The new party won 52 seats during the 1993 federal election, compared to just two for the PCs, to become the leading voice of Canadian conservatism.
Just three years after Reform was founded, another stream within the Conservative party caused a second major rupture, this time on the other side of the country.
Lucien Bouchard, a key cabinet minister in Mulroney’s government, left the caucus over the failure of the Meech Lake Accord, Mulroney’s bid to resolve Quebec’s constitutional grievances.
But that was just the beginning.
A year later, Bouchard, an old friend whom Mulroney had brought into politics, joined with five other Progressive Conservative MPs from Quebec and one Liberal to form the Bloc Québécois (BQ). The new party, based on the traditional Quebec conservative principles of provincial autonomy and cultural protection, also had a breakthrough during the 1993 election. The sovereigntist party, despite running candidates in just one province, won 54 seats to become the Official Opposition in Ottawa, part of that election’s massive restructuring of Canadian party politics.
The fracturing of Mulroney’s conservative coalition into three distinct groups and parties — as reflected in Harper’s tie — was devastating for Canadian conservatives. The split between Reform and the Progressive Conservatives took more than a decade to repair, opening the door to three consecutive Liberal majorities under Jean Chretien (1993-2003). The BQ remains a major player in Quebec federal politics, and an obstacle for Conservatives forming governments in Ottawa.
When the PCs and the Canadian Alliance, Reform’s successor, finally merged back together in 2003 to form the Conservative Party of Canada, conservatives were a viable threat again.
That party, led by Harper, formed a government in 2006 and governed for almost a decade. Although housed again under one tent, the factions and the different historical and ideological roots, remained tangible.
When Justin Trudeau’s Liberals formed government in 2015, Harper stepped down and the party cycled through four leaders — Rona Ambrose (interim), Andrew Scheer, Erin O’Toole and Candice Bergen (interim) — before Poilievre won leadership in 2022.
In terms of the streams within the party, the O’Toole leadership was perhaps the most revealing. After branding himself as a “true blue” Conservative in the party’s 2020 leadership race, O’Toole tried to appeal to a broader base after winning leadership by moving toward the centre on some key issues. But that shift was seen as too quick and too enthusiastic for many within the party.
After the 2021 federal election, when the Conservatives won the most votes but did not form government, he was ousted by his caucus, many of whom saw him as too moderate.
Poilievre, in a sense, may have the opposite problem in that he’s very popular within the party, but recent polls say he personally lags Prime Minister Mark Carney among the electorate by a ratio of about two-to-one, even while his party is within a stone’s throw of the Liberals.
In the wake of a big week for Canadian Conservatives in federal politics, with the convention in Calgary followed by a series of events to honour the 20-year anniversary of Harper’s first government, and the Liberal government still ahead in the polls, the Conservatives’ electoral recipe and DNA are under the spotlight more than usual.
National Post
The many brands of conservatism
The factions, streams or philosophical thrusts within the Conservatives — or any other big party — can be categorized in different ways. Some analysis, for example, views the streams more through regional characteristics, the ideological spectrum, or urban-rural differences. But most analysts agree that the primary streams within Canada’s Conservative party include:
Populism / Western-style Conservatism
Key ideas: Skeptical of many elites, institutions and Ottawa; Western alienation; predominant in the West, perhaps the party’s bedrock.
Key faces: Preston Manning, Danielle Smith
Status: Arguably the sturdiest stream in today’s party
Cultural populism
Key ideas: More focused on cultural issues; all things anti-woke
Key faces: Jamil Jivani, Danielle Smith
Status: Fuelled largely by social media, on the rise, especially with younger voters
Social Conservatism
Key ideas: Anti-abortion and the LGBTQ+ agenda
Key faces: Preston Manning, Stockwell Day, Leslyn Lewis, Arnold Viersen
Status: Not as strong or visible as supporters’ numbers might suggest; not additive in elections
Progressive Conservatism (“Red Tories”)
Key ideas: Limited but effective government; importance of social order, tradition, gradual change; more comfortable with communal solutions than some other factions. Not usually focused on populist or social conservative priorities. Most common in Ontario and Atlantic Canada.
Key faces: Joe Clark, Peter MacKay, Michael Chong, Erin O’Toole
Status: No longer the dominant stream. Some of these voters have drifted to Carney.
Market-oriented, fiscal Conservatism (“Blue Tories”)
Key ideas: Policy oriented: Lower taxes, free markets, smaller government; less concerned with populist or social conservative priorities. Common across the country.
Key faces: Michael Wilson, Jim Flaherty, Scott Aitchison
Status: Widely supported; most party members support market principles
Anti-elite nationalism
Key ideas: Similar to some in other western countries, emphasis on national culture, border control and identity politics; skeptical of elites, globalization and all things Davos. An element that can be found across the country and was prominent during the truckers’ protests
Key faces: Shuvaloy “Shuv” Majumdar; Shannon Stubbs
Status: Been on the rise for much of the last decade
Libertarianism
Key ideas: As little government as possible, free markets, anti-lockdown during the pandemic
Key faces: Maxime Bernier, Scott Reid
Status: Less prominent than during the pandemic.
Quebec Conservatism
Key ideas: Provincial rights, cultural protection, secularism blended with fiscal conservatism; skeptical of social conservatism
Key faces: Brian Mulroney, Jean Charest, Gérard Deltell
Status: Trending down. Despite recent solid showings, Conservatives haven’t won Quebec since 1988 or had a breakthrough in the province since the party’s reunification more than two decades ago
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