Fewer Americans are full-on MAGA than Trump thinks

As we survey the wreckage of Donald Trump's second term, it is often said that half the country voted for this, or worse, half the country is fine with this. That isn't true.

MAGA is a bit of a moving target, but a recent Economist/YouGov poll found that only 24% of all voters described themselves as "MAGA supporters" and a perhaps surprisingly low 54% of Trump voters so identified. In other words, a minority of the voting public and only a little over half of the GOP is Trump's loyal base.

A new survey from More in Common, an international pro-democracy organization (I sit on its global board), offers a more granular look at Trump 2024 voters and provides further evidence that MAGA is definitely not half the country. They canvassed over 18,000 Americans over eight months. In looking over their findings, the group categorized the Trump voters into four clusters: MAGA hardliners, anti-woke conservatives, mainline Republicans and the reluctant right. Their conclusion? Trump voters were a coalition, not a cult.

MAGA hardliners: These are the people we usually picture sporting red hats. They are highly religious, 91% white, mostly over 45 and less educated than other Trump voters — only 24% hold a college degree or higher compared with 29% of total Trump voters. They have little trust in institutions, believe that a sinister cabal runs media, business and politics, and are not averse to their leader ignoring the Supreme Court or other constitutional checks to "get things done."

A lamentable majority (60%) of the hardliners say their man should serve a third term. (In case you're wondering, yes, they do know the Constitution imposes a two-term limit, because it was included in the question.) Nearly three-quarters think we should "use our military to round up everyone who came to the U.S. illegally, put them in mass detention camps, and deport them." Seventy-four percent say voting for Trump is part of "living out my faith," and 94% (75% strongly) believe that God intervened to save Trump's life in Butler, Pennsylvania, so that he could make America great again.

This crowd cannot be trusted with power. They are conspiratorial, cultish, dismissive of constitutional limits and punitive toward their perceived political enemies. There isn't much good to say about them except this: They represent only 29% of Trump 2024 voters.

Anti-woke conservatives: This next group is a little different. Among Trump voters, they are the least likely to say their faith determines their votes (14% versus an average of 27% among all Trump voters), but also the most hostile to Democrats. This is an alienated bunch who believe (91%) that wokeness is a very serious problem plaguing America. So, while that was enough to put them in the GOP column, only 33% agree that Trump should punish his opponents. This group represents 21% of Trump's coalition.

Mainline Republicans: Making up some 30% of the coalition, these are the most likely to say that they are Trump supporters and Republicans equally, the least likely to say America is in decline (39% versus 58% of all Trump voters) and somewhat cool (43%) to ignoring court orders. Fifty-four percent of this group, compared with 76% of all Trump voters, agree with the statement "The woke left has ruined American education, news, and entertainment."

Reluctant right: Of this final cohort, only a scant majority even identifies as Republican, and they were the most likely to say they voted for Trump, because he seemed "less bad" than Kamala Harris. This group, which represented 1 in 5 Trump voters, was the most likely to say they were ashamed of what happened on Jan. 6. Only 28% of this group favored rounding up undocumented immigrants and deporting them (compared with 52% of all Trump voters). Twenty-five percent of the reluctant right say they have doubts about or regret their vote entirely. That's a start.

The hardline MAGA group believes all of the worst things, but it's worth noting that some of the policies associated with Trump 2.0 have far less support among the rest of the coalition. Only 31% support deporting immigrants to third countries.

The Economist/YouGov poll found further fissures, suggesting that Trump voters are not a monolith. Asked whether they supported increases or decreases in spending on Medicaid, for example, which the GOP cut by $1 trillion in last year's "Big Beautiful Bill," only 28% of Trump voters favored decreasing spending.

Trump's base is hate-filled and dangerous, but it is not the majority. Nor is it half of the country. As a January Pew poll found, only 27% of respondents say they support all or most of Trump's policies, down from 35 % when he took the oath of office. Nearly all of that decline is attributable to Republicans. The erosion is proceeding fast, and based on the small size of the cult, there is plenty of room for more. Onward!

Mona Charen is policy editor of The Bulwark and host of the “Beg to Differ” podcast.