Super Bowl LX 2026 on prediction markets: what to wager
The Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots will go head-to-head in Super Bowl LX, opening up plenty of opportunities to bet via prediction markets.
For many, half of the fun of big sporting events like Super Bowl LX is betting on outcomes, and there’s plenty to choose from on prediction market giants Polymarket, Kalshi, and Gemini this weekend. The obvious one is, of course, the winner itself, with the Seattle Seahawks the favorites heading into the weekend at 67.6% across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Gemini at the time of writing.
DeFi Rate reports that over $2.7 million (just a fraction of what is expected to be wagered on the Super Bowl across all gambling avenues) has already been wagered on the outcomes, underlining the huge amount of activity across the board with prediction markets.
What to wager on prediction markets during Super Bowl LX
The nature of prediction markets means there’s plenty more unique bets to wager on besides the obvious, with both Kalshi and Polymarket offering bets and props on a number of topics, from national anthem length to Gatorade color.
Right now, six markets stand out for their volume and liquidity, offering a snapshot of how expectations are forming as the game approaches.
Most Valuable Player
The Super Bowl MVP market is once again dominated by quarterbacks. Sam Darnold leads the board with a 44.2% implied probability, trading around +126. Drake Maye is next at 26.7%, priced near +275. The pricing follows a familiar pattern. Five of the past six Super Bowl MVP awards have gone to quarterbacks, and traders are clearly leaning on that history.
Among non-quarterbacks, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has emerged as the most popular alternative at 14.5%, trading in the mid-teens. Kenneth Walker III follows at 8.1%. Longer shots are also getting some action, with Rhamondre Stevenson and Rashid Shaheed both priced under two cents for bettors hoping for a surprise performance on the biggest stage.
First song
Entertainment props are pulling in heavy interest as well. The market for the first song performed by Bad Bunny has been especially active. “Tití Me Preguntó” is the clear favorite, leading with a 52.8% probability across both platforms. “BAILE INOLVIDABLE” sits far back at 15.1%, with “NUEVAYOL” close behind at 14.2%.
Half-time performers
Halftime-related markets are busy even with some details already locked in. Charlie Puth is set to sing the national anthem. Green Day will open the ceremony alongside Brandi Carlile for “America the Beautiful.” With that settled, attention has shifted to potential guest appearances during the halftime show, where Cardi B is the heavy favorite at 60.5%, ahead of Rauw Alejandro and Karol G.
What will announcers say?
Markets tied directly to the broadcast are expected to surge on game day. Attendance props, including celebrity sightings, are already trading despite some outcomes feeling close to guaranteed. Announcer word markets are shaping up as one of the most popular live bets. Kalshi limits this category to NBC’s Mike Tirico and Cris Collinsworth, while Polymarket counts any on-air mention. “Safety,” “MVP,” and variations of “Comeback” are all trading above 94%.
Advertisers
Advertising markets round out the list of high-activity contracts. Kalshi’s “Who will appear in a Big Game ad?” market features names like Sydney Sweeney, Timothée Chalamet, and Harry Styles (although we know there won’t be any prediction market ads). Brand appearance contracts look even more decisive. State Farm, Toyota, and Salesforce are all trading above 98 cents, with Liquid Death, OpenAI, and Hims & Hers also priced as near-locks by the market.
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