How diverse voices are transforming the UN’s climate science

An environmental expert from Nigeria, a climate policy consultant from Kenya, an oceanographer from Indonesia and an Indigenous social development specialist from the Philippines will are among dozens of experts in the UK this month as the UN’s top climate body meets to rewrite the the rules for compiling the world’s most important climate reports.

The workshops at the University of Reading from February 10 to 12 will lay the groundwork for bringing diverse knowledge into the next report by the UN climate science body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The seventh assessment report, known as AR7, will be published in 2028 and finalised the following year.

There are two big themes under discussion. One workshop examines how artificial intelligence (AI) tools can help scientists review growing volumes of climate research. AI is revolutionising scientific research, with its ability to conduct faster analysis of complex data than traditional computer models. AI weather and climate models are already becoming integrated into the information provided through meteorological services such as the Met Office.

Another workshop explores how Indigenous and local knowledge can be integrated into these assessments alongside standard scientific findings. For decades, IPCC reports have been built primarily on peer-reviewed scientific papers from academic institutions, mostly in the world’s wealthier nations. These workshops explore how to better include Indigenous knowledge, local observations and expertise from communities that are experiencing climate change first hand.

This could not come at a more important time. A few weeks ago, the US withdrew its participation from the IPCC process. Now, a new cadre of experts from across the world are coming to the UK to make climate science more inclusive and AR7 preparation continues with 195 member countries. The work goes on, but the US absence leaves gaps in emissions reporting and funding.

Credible, yet unconventional

Bringing in diverse voices is essential to the report’s success. If IPCC reports reflect only one way of understanding the world, they can miss crucial insights. As other sectors have found again and again, a lack of diversity in the workforce leads to a lack of insight. The environment sector remains one of the least diverse, with only 3.5% of people working in environmental jobs identifying as being from an ethnic minority. Diverse voices and critical discussions are key to making robust, inclusive and future-proof decisions.

Through my work developing flood forecasting systems across Africa, Asia and Latin America, I’ve learned this directly. After Cyclone Idai hit Mozambique in 2019, the Global Flood Awareness System, a service that provides openly accessible information about upcoming floods across the world, was used to help target relief where it was most needed.

In Uganda, working with the humanitarian agency Uganda Red Cross and the Red Cross Climate Centre, our forecasts helped 5,000 people evacuate before roads were cut. In Bangladesh’s river basins, improving forecasts meant understanding how communities interpret flood risk. In Kenya, choosing the right forecasting approach required learning from the people who have lived with these rivers for generations.

Climate science has traditionally valued certain types of expertise. Peer-reviewed papers and university credentials do matter. But expertise also comes from generations of farmers building up understanding of local weather patterns or Indigenous knowledge about the land, forests and rivers. Scientific models, combined with community knowledge, produce better outcomes than either alone.

For the result of its latest report to be credible, the IPCC needs the best evidence from all sources, because that is what produces the best science.

Hannah Cloke advises the Environment Agency, the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, the Copernicus Emergency Management Service, local and national governments and humanitarian agencies on the forecasting and warning of natural hazards. She is a member of the UKRI Natural Environment Research Council and a fellow of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts. Her research is funded by the UKRI Engineering & Physical Sciences Research Council, the UKRI Natural Environment Research Council, the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office and the European Commission.