Super Bowl LX pick: Seahawks’ cleaner play, experience at QB give them edge over Patriots

LAS VEGAS — Sam and his Seahawks, not a half-bad band name, have come too far and have played too well to flail on the game’s grand stage.

In road points-per-play margin in the TeamRankings database, the Hawks have the decided edge on the season. Over their last three games, that’s a 3-2 edge (0.188 to 0.128) that I massaged into a final score.

At the Westgate SuperBook counter last Friday morning, I asked the kinda-crusty ticket writer (whom I favor for his no-BS manner and straightforward demeanor) if he had yet concocted a scenario for the game?

“My crystal ball,” he said as he examined my ticket before handing it to me, “hasn’t narrowed it down that precisely.”

Seahawks 30, Patriots 20. If that beauty hits, at 125-to-1 odds, Cadillac margaritas on me inside Baja Miguel’s at the South Point casino.

Before the playoffs, I used PPP margins to play out the brackets, culminating in the purchase of Seahawks-over-Pats (+900 at Circa) and Pats-over-Seahawks (12-1) exacta tickets.

I was heavy on the Texans’ superior defense. But their offense had lost too many key figures. So before they played the Patriots, I grabbed a Pats title ticket, at +650, to equal the payout of that Texans ducat.

And I’ve hedged that ticket with Seahawks-moneyline (about -235) gems to guarantee a specific return.

Reviewing Ohio judge Kevin Braig’s latest magnificent QuantCoach’s Eye newsletter, the teams are even in certain areas, with the Seahawks dominating pass-coverage efficiency and quarterback pressure.

Linebacker DeMarcus Lawrence, who forced three fumbles and returned two for touchdowns this season, and tackles Byron Murphy and Leonard Williams, with seven sacks apiece this season, are the Seahawks’ disruptors.

I tally incomplete passes, interceptions, sacks, fumbles lost and punts as “mistake factors,” and over their last three games, the Seahawks’ average (nearly 13) is nearly half of the Patriots’ (nearly 25).

Sam, of course, is Seahawks eighth-year hurler Sam Darnold, the first USC quarterback to start in a Super Bowl who has nearly triple the experience (93 NFL starts) as Pats sophomore quarterback Drake Maye (32).

Moreover, Mike Macdonald is a stunning 15-2 on the road and 12-4-1 against the spread in his two seasons coaching the Seahawks.

Luck has already played a role for both teams, since both finished in the top five of the TeamRankings fortune ratings. In this and the last 10 Super Bowls, 14 of 22 participants have finished among the top five.

(Which bodes well for the Bears, who finished fifth this season, should their luck continue.)

The conundrum for the Patriots will be third-year receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who had a career year with 1,793 receiving yards. In the NFC Championship Game against the Rams, he caught 10 of 12 targeted passes for 153 yards.

Can the Patriots cover him solely with Christian Gonzalez? Shading him by even a half-step with one or two others will open the freeway for sure-handed veteran Cooper Kupp, flashy Rashid Shaheed and stout tight end AJ Barner.

I can see Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III canceling out TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson, and I envision Maye making mistakes.

Bryce Baringer having punted eight times in each of his last two games almost makes it surprising that the Patriots have even reached February. By contrast, the Seahawks punted eight total times in their two playoff games.

That made over 7½ punts my first Super Bowl LX prop investment. I’m also on -Darnold and Kupp props.

SUPER BOWL LX: PATRIOTS vs. SEAHAWKS

Time: 5:30 p.m. Sunday, NBC 5, 670-AM.

Site: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, Calif.

Line: Seahawks by 4½. Total: 45½.

Records (overall/ATS): Patriots 16-3/12-7; Seahawks 16-3/15-4.

Pick: Seahawks 30, Patriots 20.

Play: Seahawks -4½.

HOW MIECH’S PLAYS FARED

                    2 weeks ago   Overall

Overall   1-1 131-145-5

7-point tease 2-0      200-79-2