From Dependence To Diversification: Afghanistan’s Ban On Pakistani Medicines And Its Regional Impact – OpEd

On November 12, 2025, the Taliban government in Afghanistan (the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan) announced a ban on the import of medicines from Pakistan. During a meeting with Afghan traders, Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar Akhund described Pakistani medicines as low-quality and gave Afghan pharmaceutical importers a three-month deadline to settle their financial accounts in Pakistan. After the expiration of this period, Afghan traders would no longer be allowed to import Pakistani medicines into the country.

Recently, Afghanistan’s Ministry of Finance reiterated this decision and emphasized that, based on the directive of the Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, no Pakistani medicines would be cleared at customs after February 9. The ministry once again urged Afghan pharmaceutical companies to finalize their accounts in Pakistan.

Following clashes along the Durand Line in early October 2025, land routes between Afghanistan and Pakistan have been closed to all forms of trade. As a result of these closures, Afghan traders initially suffered losses, and over the past two months Pakistani traders have also experienced significant economic damage.

Afghanistan has long been one of the largest markets for Pakistani goods, a position Pakistan has effectively dominated for decades. At present, the harvest season for Pakistani potatoes, kinnow oranges, and other agricultural products is underway, and Pakistani farmers and traders are strongly complaining about the losses caused by border closures and trade disruptions.

In addition to fruits, vegetables, and other products, Afghanistan has also been a major market for Pakistani medicines. According to 2023 figures, Pakistan exported pharmaceutical products worth USD 113 million to Afghanistan—more than to any other country.

Due to ongoing tensions between the two countries, particularly over the issue of the Pakistani Taliban, it appears unlikely that bilateral relations will normalize unless this dispute is resolved. Based on Afghan officials’ policies and statements, it seems that Afghanistan’s pharmaceutical market may remain closed to Pakistani medicines for a long time, possibly permanently.

Pakistan, however, argues that the lives of its citizens matter more than trade with Afghanistan. Islamabad has frequently used commerce as a pressure tool to pursue its objectives, including pressuring Afghanistan to withdraw support, according to Pakistan, for the Pakistani Taliban.

Short-Term and Long-Term Impacts on the Afghan Market

The Taliban’s sudden decision to ban pharmaceutical imports from Pakistan may have short-term effects on the Afghan market. These may include shortages of medicines and rising prices. However, such impacts are likely to persist only until Afghan traders’ secure alternative sources and imports reach levels sufficient to meet domestic demand previously supplied by Pakistan.

Soon after the suspension of pharmaceutical trade with Pakistan, Afghanistan’s Minister of Industry and Commerce, Alhaj Nooruddin Azizi, followed by the Minister of Public Health, Mawlawi Noor Jalal Jalali, traveled to India. Among the main objectives of these visits were finding alternatives to Pakistani medicines, securing Indian assistance, and encouraging Indian investors to invest in Afghanistan.

Following these visits, several Indian investors traveled to Kabul and signed agreements, opening a new chapter in investment relations between the current Afghan government and India.

In addition, the Deputy Minister of Industry and Commerce, Mawlawi Ahmadullah Zahid, traveled to Bangladesh, where he met with Bangladeshi pharmaceutical manufacturers. These companies assured Afghan officials that they would increase the supply of medicines to Afghanistan.

The ban on Pakistani pharmaceutical imports has compelled Afghanistan to search for alternative markets and reduce its dependence on Pakistan. Afghan traders have increasingly turned to India, Iran, and more recently Bangladesh to address shortages in the Afghan market. Expanding trade relations with these countries also provides an opportunity for Kabul’s current rulers—who pursue an economy-centered foreign policy while facing a legitimacy crisis—to broaden regional engagement.

An Opportunity to Develop Afghanistan’s Domestic Pharmaceutical Industry

Beyond securing alternative import markets, Afghanistan has gained a major opportunity: strengthening and expanding its domestic pharmaceutical industry.

While no country can achieve self-sufficiency across all economic sectors, many strive to reduce dependence on external suppliers. Although Afghanistan, with its agriculture-based economy, faces a long path toward industrial development, external pressures can sometimes prompt greater attention to domestic production and competitiveness.

The ban on pharmaceutical imports from Pakistan provides Afghanistan with an opportunity to focus on the pharmaceutical sector, expand domestic production facilities, and eventually achieve self-sufficiency in certain medicines.

Currently, several pharmaceutical manufacturing plants operate in Afghanistan, producing a limited range of medicines—mostly for non-critical illnesses. Producing medicines for serious diseases such as heart disease, diabetes, and cancer will require significant time and investment. However, the suspension of Pakistani imports creates an incentive to begin working toward domestic production even in these areas.

At the same time, India has provided Afghanistan with medical assistance, including cancer medicines, to help fill the gap created by the ban and prevent shortages.

Most pharmaceutical manufacturers in Afghanistan belong to the private sector. Afghan authorities should therefore pay greater attention to supporting private enterprises by providing incentives, facilities, and protection, as the private sector forms the backbone of Afghanistan’s economy and offers strong investment opportunities.

The ban on Pakistani pharmaceutical imports not only encourages Afghan authorities, traders, and investors to seek alternatives, but also strengthens Afghanistan’s trade ties with regional and extra-regional countries while contributing to the growth of domestic industry.

Pakistan Is Losing Access to Central Asia

Pakistan’s trade was not limited to Afghanistan alone; it also relied on Afghan transit routes to access Central Asian markets. With border routes closed, Pakistan has lost not only the Afghan market but also its primary export corridor to Central Asia.

Afghanistan provides the shortest route for Pakistan’s trade with Central Asia. The closure of this route has created serious difficulties for Pakistani traders.

Central Asian countries were not only important markets for Pakistani agricultural products, but Uzbekistan was also one of Pakistan’s major destinations for pharmaceutical exports. In 2023, Pakistan exported medicines worth USD 30 million to Uzbekistan, making it one of its top pharmaceutical markets.

Given the strained relations between the two governments, the reopening of trade routes does not appear imminent. Recent mediation efforts by Qatar, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia have failed, highlighting the depth of mistrust and disagreement between the two sides.

Conclusion

Available data suggest that Pakistan may suffer greater losses from the closure of trade routes. Pakistan has lost access to Afghanistan’s large market, while its exports to Central Asia through Afghan territory have been completely disrupted. Finding new markets to replace Afghanistan and Uzbekistan will be difficult and time-consuming, as Pakistani pharmaceutical companies will face intense competition in markets already dominated by other suppliers.

On the other hand, Afghanistan’s markets may experience short-term disruptions. As existing pharmaceutical stocks are depleted, rising prices and shortages could pose serious challenges. Yet these difficulties also create opportunities for Afghanistan to diversify its trade partners, expand commercial relations, and further develop its domestic pharmaceutical industry.

Afghanistan currently conducts trade with India, Bangladesh, and other countries through Iran’s Chabahar Port. However, shifts in U.S. policy toward Chabahar Port could significantly affect Afghanistan’s trade with these countries, potentially leading to shortages and higher prices for medicines and other essential goods—challenges that would be difficult for Afghanistan to offset.