How the Mandelson scandal spiralled into an existential threat for Keir Starmer
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It’s very easy to overegg the significance of particular stories when you’re surrounded by the hubbub of Westminster every working day. I remember suggesting that last year’s Afghan data leak and resulting evacuation may be the biggest story of the past five years – and who’s talking about that now?
This week, of course, it’s all about Peter Mandelson. The front page of the New Statesman is calling this the ‘Scandal of the Century’. Jeremy Corbyn’s shadow chancellor John McDonnell believes it could ‘certainly bring Keir Starmer down’.
We’ve seen this circus before. Almost all of yesterday’s Prime Minister’s Questions was dedicated to grilling the PM on one subject – it’s not the first time that’s happened.
So how much trouble is he truly in?
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Let’s spell out what’s happened in very clear terms. At the height of the 2009 financial crash, the then-business secretary Peter Mandelson appears to have leaked to his friend in the US highly sensitive information about the UK government’s response.
And this wasn’t just any friend – it was Jeffrey Epstein, perhaps the most notorious paedophile of the 21st century. Oh, and this was after Epstein had served time in prison for child sex offences.
Then, 16 years later, Mandelson was personally appointed by Keir Starmer as the UK’s ambassador to the US, one of the most high-profile roles in British diplomacy.
Looks pretty wild when you set it out like that, doesn’t it? The Afghan data leak this is not.
For now, the PM is just being asked the same questions he was when the ambassador was sacked over his Epstein links in September: Given the simple fact of Mandelson’s friendship with Epstein was known about before he was appointed, why was that not considered disqualifying enough? Is the vetting process up to scratch if it failed to flag just how close the pair were?
But this time, two major new elements have been set in motion that all but guarantee more drama to come soon.
The first is the police investigation into Mandelson over alleged misconduct in public office. If he’s charged and found guilty, it would be the first time any former minister – or even any current or former MP, or peer – has been convicted of the offence, which carries a maximum sentence of life in prison.
The second is even more risky for Starmer’s government. With its hand forced by Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives, today it committed to publishing a mass of information relating to the decision to appoint Mandelson as ambassador, including all messages between him and government ministers (and the PM’s Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney) from six months before the appointment until the day he was sacked.
These have already been christened the Mandelson files. Nobody is expecting them to be laden with criminality like the Epstein files, but they might just lay bare how much of a mentor the disgraced former minister has been to top figures in Starmer’s top team.
They have the potential to turn everything upside down once they emerge – and we have no idea when that might happen. So keep an eye out… because yes, this is a very significant story indeed.
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