The great Australia debate

On Tuesday The Post published an op ed from me, arguing that the collapse of the rules based order meant that New Zealand should become the seventh state of Australia. I say:

Since World War II there has largely been a rules-based order which has been very beneficial to small countries like New Zealand. It has allowed us to prosper, and develop strong economic and political relationships with competing powers such as the US and China. The rules-based order was about more powerful countries agreeing to restrain their power, in the interests of global stability and security. …

New Zealand is a minnow country. We do not have, and never will have, the economic or military might to defend our interests. Our protection in the past was the rules-based order.

However Australia is what people call a medium power. We are already highly integrated into Australia with CER. Culturally we are very alike, and we are basically cousins. I say it is time we upgrade from cousins to siblings.

I look at what a combined Australia and New Zealand would be:

• A population of 33 million, taking us from 122nd most populous country to 47th.
• An economy of US$2 trillion (NZ$3.3 trillion) GDP, taking us from the 53rd largest economy to the 12th largest. We would be part of an economy larger than Spain, South Korea and Turkey.
• The combined defence force would have 70,000 active personnel and 35,000 reserves – around half as large as the United Kingdom’s. The defence budget of US$35 billion (NZD$58b) would be the 11th largest in the world – larger than Canada, Poland and Israel.

There has been quite a lot of interest in the argument. I seemingly managed to unite the entire NZ Parliament against me:

If there’s one thing party leaders from all sides of the political spectrum can agree on, it’s that New Zealand should not become Australia’s seventh state.

I am not at all surprised that no party leader would publicly agree with it. I partly wrote what I did, because I think it is a debate we should have – and one MPs can’t actually lead on.

The Post summarised reader response here.

Kevin Norquay does an analysis of the issue here.

Stuff has done an article on it. Also an article with a poll and feedback.

I was interviewed by Heather DPA on NewstalkZB about it.

Liam Hehir argues against.

I was also interviewed about it on The Platform Wednesday afternoon, Radio NZ Wednesday evening and should be on Three News tomorrow.

Also had a lot of interest in Australia with a radio interview with 4BC, and a TV interview with Channel 10. Also covered by 9 News.

My purpose in igniting the debate is I don’t think the status quo is going to work for us in the future. The world has changed, and it isn’t turning back. What we have seen as our strengths in the past, may now be weaknesses. As Canadian PM Mark Carney said “If you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu”. And I don’t see how we get to be at the table when we are so small. Europe has the EU. Canada, Australia and the UK are medium powers, as are Japan and South Korea.

Anyway of course it won’t happen anytime soon, but I hope we do debate the issue, and especially the wider issue of what New Zealand needs to do in a might is right world to avoid being on the menu.

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