Why the Cuban regime is ‘sweating’

A month has passed since President Donald Trump authorized the capture of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro, and Cuba’s leaders are “sweating,” according to one expert on the country.

The Cuban regime is “sweating because Trump is unpredictable,” John Suarez, executive director of the Center for a Free Cuba, told The Daily Signal. Trump “may not do a regime change operation, but he may eliminate key figures from the [Cuban] regime like he did with Maduro,” he said.

Some of Cuba’s “key figures” include President Miguel Díaz-Canel and former President Raúl Castro, who retains significant power over the regime, according to Suarez.

The Cuban regime has watched Trump take bold foreign policy actions, Suarez explains, from bombing Iran’s three key nuclear facilities in June, to arresting Maduro on Jan. 3 and bringing him back to New York City to stand trial for multiple charges, including narco-terrorism.

The U.S. has a historically tense relationship with Cuba, with no formal diplomatic relations between 1961 and 2015.

Cuba, which only lies about 90 miles from Florida, has been ruled by a communist dictatorship for over 60 years. The regime has backed terrorist groups that pose a critical threat to the U.S. and has pursued a relationship with nuclear powers like China and Iran.

Still, Trump said as recently as Sunday that he hopes the U.S. can strike a deal with Cuba to prevent a humanitarian crisis in the communist nation.

Oil and Uprising

Until Jan. 3, Venezuela was the central financial support of Cuba, primarily through oil. Cuban and Venezuelan leaders built a relationship over decades, starting with Hugo Chávez, who came to power in Venezuela in 1999.

Fidel Castro, the former dictatorial leader of Cuba, once referred to Chávez as Cuba’s “best friend.”

During the U.S. operation to capture Maduro in early January, 32 Cuban military guards were reportedly killed seeking to defend the Venezuelan leader.

After the U.S. cut off Cuba from Venezuelan oil, Trump signed an executive order at the end of January imposing tariffs on imported goods from nations that supply oil to Cuba. The move puts pressure on Mexico, in particular, to cease oil shipments to Cuba.

Trump, over the weekend, said he spoke with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and asked Mexico to stop sending oil to Cuba.

“She is not sending oil,” Trump said.

With no oil entering Cuba, it could take less than a month for the nation to exhaust its reserves, Suarez explains, which “presents a problem to the security apparatus.”

“They can’t get out the secret police to go and repress people if they don’t have gasoline for their vehicles,” he said.

Cuban civilians may choose to take advantage of a weakened Cuban regime and launch an uprising similar to the large anti-regime protests of 2021, Suarez says, while acknowledging civilians may be afraid to protest a regime that has shown “willingness to kill mass numbers of people.”

Trump Is ‘Serious’

Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are “serious … about getting rid of the Cuban dictatorship,” Mike Gonzalez, a senior fellow in The Heritage Foundation’s Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy, says.

With Maduro in prison and Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro’s vice president, now running Venezuela, Gonzalez speculates Trump is likely hoping for a similar outcome in Cuba.

“I think what Trump is trying to do is get the Castros, the real power, and Miguel Díaz-Canel, the puppet dictator, out of the way … without any boots on the ground,” Gonzalez, whose family is originally from Cuba, said.

Financial pressure on Cuba could lead to the downfall of the current regime because, as Gonzalez speculates, if Cuba’s military leaders “stop getting money, why do they owe [the Castro family and Díaz-Canel] any loyalty.”

While Gonzalez says Cuba is a “basket case,” he adds it is impossible to know how long it will take to see regime change in the nation.

[Editor’s note: This story originally was published by The Daily Signal.]