Republican 'wake-up call': Special election shocker highlights GOP turnout and midterm risks

A stunning setback for Republicans at the ballot box in a ruby red part of right-leaning Texas has some saying the defeat was a "wake-up call" for the GOP ahead of this year's midterm elections, when the party is defending its narrow congressional majorities.

The double-digit shellacking, in a special state Senate election this past weekend in a Fort Worth area district that President Donald Trump won by 17 points in 2024, comes amid backlash over the Trump administration's unprecedented crackdown on illegal immigration and, as the latest polling indicates, the president and his party are well underwater.

The Democrats' victory, their latest win or over performance in a slew of special elections since Trump returned to power in the White House a year ago, is further energizing them as they work to win back control of the House and possibly the Senate.

"It’s clearly a wake-up call for Republicans," longtime Texas-based Republican strategist Brendan Steinhauser told Fox News Digital.

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And he warned that the results in Saturday's special election to fill a vacant GOP-controlled seat in state Senate District 9 "does show that Democrats are energized and Republicans did not turn out in the numbers they should have."

"If Democrats can win this seat, it puts a lot of other seats in play," Steinhauser warned.

But as of now, Republican sources involved in midterm messaging tell Fox News Digital that while they're not discounting the Democrats' victories, there's no talk right now of a wholesale revamping of the GOP's playbook.

In Texas, Machinist and Air Force veteran Taylor Rehmet topped Republican Leigh Wambsganss by roughly 14 points in Saturday's runoff election, despite Republicans dramatically outspending Democrats in the race, along with support from top Republicans including Gov. Greg Abbott and a last-minute endorsement and a social media push by Trump.

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This is the first time the seat, in the northern part of Fort Worth anchored Tarrant County, has been represented by a Democrat in four decades.

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) called it a "Shockwave Victory" and highlighted that "Democrats have now flipped 26 state legislative seats since Trump retook office, while Republicans have flipped zero."

The results of special elections are often over-hyped and are not always the best indicator or barometer of things to come. But regardless, Republicans aren't trying to sugarcoat the results.

Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick called the defeat "a wake-up call for Republicans across Texas. Our voters cannot take anything for granted."

And Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis noted on X, "Special elections are quirky and not necessarily projectable re: a general election. That said, a swing of this magnitude is not something that can be dismissed."

"Republicans should be clear-eyed about the political environment heading into the midterms," DeSantis emphasized.

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Thanks in part to their laser focus on the issue of affordability amid persistent inflation, Democrats scored decisive victories in the 2025 elections, and have overperformed at the ballot box in other off-year and special elections since the start of Trump's second administration. But some of those victories and overperformances came in contests in small state legislative districts, where large swings can take place amid low voter turnout.

That wasn't the case in Texas, where the 9th state Senate district is home to roughly one million people, more populous than the 800,000 people in a typical congressional district.

Republicans, as the party in power in the nation's capital, are facing traditional political headwinds in the midterms and a rough climate.

More than half (54%) surveyed in the latest Fox News national poll said the nation was worse off than it was a year ago, when Trump took office, with only 31% saying the U.S. was in a better position.

Only 30% said the economy was in excellent or good shape, and Trump's overall approval ratings remain in negative territory (44%-56%), according to the poll.

The survey was the latest national poll to spell trouble for the GOP.

Trump's emphasis on inflation was a key factor in Republicans winning back the White House and Senate and holding on to the House in the 2024 elections. But Trump's approval on combating inflation stood at just 35% in the Fox News survey.

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Border security and immigration were also winning issues for Trump and the GOP in 2024. But in the wake of two fatal shootings by federal agents of U.S. citizens in Minnesota protesting against the administration's aggressive deportation efforts, the president's poll numbers on immigration have slipped.

While Trump's approval ratings on border security stood at 52%-47% in the latest Fox News poll, he was at 45%-55% on how he was handling immigration.

Tarrant County is Texas' third most populous, and nearly a third of its population is Hispanic.

Trump made major gains with Hispanic voters in Texas and across the county as he won back the White House in 2024.

"I think we might have expected that the support among Hispanic voters in Texas for Trump might translate to all Republicans. That may not be the case," Steinhauser noted.

And he suggested that "some of the other imagery coming out of Minnesota is giving people pause, especially Hispanic Texans."

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Looking ahead to November's midterms, when the Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to recapture the House majority, DNC Chair Ken Martin said that the results in the Texas special election "prove that no Republican seat is safe."

Two veteran Republican strategists told Fox News Digital Republicans need to showcase their successes to change the narrative heading into the midterms.

Pointing to the GOP's sweeping "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which includes numerous tax cuts that many voters will feel this spring, Lance Trover said "Republicans have passed significant legislation. It’s on us to go out and sell it and remind voters that if Democrats have their way we are on a fast track to socialism."

And Colin Reed emphasized that "if the economy starts booming on the backs of the One, Big Beautiful Bill’s provisions taking hold, the Republican Party need to remind America that this was a policy uniformly supported by one party and opposed by another. That’s the GOP’s big bet heading into the midterms."

And back in Texas, Patrick was optimistic as he looked head to the midterms.

"I know the energy and strength the Republican grassroots in Texas possess. We will come out fighting with a new resolve, and we will take this seat back in November," the lieutenant governor predicted.

Fox News’ Dana Blanton and Victoria Balara contributed to this report.