History says it could be years before whipsawed silver recovers back to record levels
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- Silver prices could struggle for years before bottoming and resuming their rise to new highs, NDR says.
- The research firm said that silver saw "further downside" every time it plunged 20% from its all-time high.
- In those instances, the metal took an average of 14 years to climb back to new records.
The pain may be nowhere near over for silver.
The precious metal is starting to stabilize after weathering a historic plunge last week, but, after a decline of that magnitude, history says that silver likely won't find a bottom anytime soon. It could take years for the metal to claw its way back to record highs, according to an analysis from Ned Davis Research.
In a note to clients on Monday, the research firm pointed to silver's swift drop on Friday, with the metal plummeting as much as 36% as traders unwound speculative bets that propelled a huge rally over the last year.
There have been only four other instances over the last 58 years in which silver plunged by more than 20% from an all-time high, NDR said. In all cases, such a correction led to more downside, with silver prices trending lower for at least the next 12 months, according to Matt Bauer, a commodity strategist at the firm.
Ned Davis Research
On average, silver prices took around seven years to find a bottom in the aftermath of a big correction, with the average peak-to-trough decline clocking in at 65%, Bauer said. The metal also took around 14 years on average to climb back to a new all-time high.
Those statistics are "heavily skewed" by silver's historic 1980 drop, when the metal fell 93% in the 13 years following its peak, Bauer said. Still, he added that he believes silver's decline last week showed the most similarities to the 1980 drop among historical corrections.
"If the current episode follows the general pattern of past cycles, silver may take years to bottom and years after that to climb to a new ATH," Bauer wrote.
Silver has drawn more speculation from investors in the last year as it rallied hard and quickly became one of the market's best-performing investments. Its price more than doubled in 2025 and is still up 24% year-to-date, even after last week's decline.