Three Takeaways from the Taylor Rehmet Texas Shocker 

Taylor Rehmet, a 33-year-old Lockheed Martin machinist and president of the Texas chapter of the international machinist union, in a Saturday special election, flipped a Republican-held state Senate seat in the suburbs of Fort Worth. The neophyte Democratic candidate won a district by 14 points, while Donald Trump carried it by 17 points.  

While the 31-point swing is particularly wide, Democrats have consistently outperformed in state legislative special elections throughout Trump’s second term. Therefore, Rehmet’s triumph is no fluke, and more than a mere extension of a trend, perhaps, an acceleration. 

Of course, we must always be careful not to overinterpret a single data point. But some lessons can be reasonably drawn from Rehmet’s shocking upset. 

1. Latino Voters Are Fleeing the GOP (and Screwing Up the GOP Gerrymanders) 

Since August, I’ve been flagging for Washington Monthly readers all the poll and election-return data showing that Trump’s 2024 gains among Latino voters have proved fleeting. And my August dispatch noted that because the Republican Party’s aggressive redraw of Texas’ congressional district lines was crudely based on just the 2024 results—not on longer-term trends over multiple elections—it may well backfire. The gerrymander was intended to net Republicans five House seats, with four of the new districts majority-Latino. 

In the Saturday special, Latino areas of Fort Worth swung left very hard, by as much as 50 points. Mike Madrid, who co-founded The Lincoln Project and specializes in the Latino vote, observed in his Substack newsletter that “suburban districts with growing Latino populations,” such as Rehmet’s, are “the ones Democrats need to flip to make any real progress in Austin.” According to one election mapper, “if Democrats overperformed statewide in November the way Taylor Rehmet did tonight, the GOP’s gerrymander would actually backfire—and Democrats would net 3 House seats in Texas.” 

Expectations should not get out of hand. Come November, we shouldn’t assume 50-point swings in every Latino neighborhood just because Rehmet pulled that off in a low-turnout Saturday special election. Madrid noted, “Texas is no guarantee to turn blue in 2026. Not by a long shot,” yet “the math is changing in ways that make a competitive Texas actually plausible.” Whether or not Texas is now in play, the national Latino shift suggests Democrats are in great shape for the 2026 midterms. 

2. The Democratic Brand Is Not in Crisis 

Three weeks ago, I argued that “The Republican Party Faces a Bigger Crisis Than the Democratic Party,” and I need not rehash the my case, especially since Rehmet’s success further bolsters it.  

Granted, Rehmet didn’t go out of his way to wrap himself in a Democratic flag. His main ads didn’t use the word “Democrat,” instead associating himself with “regular people,”  distancing himself from “politicians in Austin,” and playing up his military service and blue-collar bona fides. But he did tag his opponent as someone who “helps billionaires get richer,” which likely signaled to many voters his progressive-populist worldview.  

He told The New York Times, “I’m not interested in the cultural war issues” and steered clear of topics like transgender rights and reproductive freedom. But nor did he throw vulnerable constituencies under the bus. And his campaign website took passive-aggressive shots at his Republican opponent, Leigh Wambsganss, who is known for running a political action committee that backed right-wing culture warriors in school board races. “We need schools that teach, not culture-war battlegrounds,” his website declared, “Taylor will stand with teachers, parents, and students to invest in neighborhood schools, protect public education from privatization, and keep extremist politics and religious ideology out of the classroom.” 

Wambsganss certainly tried to tag Rehmet as a scary Democrat by, for example, going on Steve Bannon’s War Room podcast and tying him to former Vice President Kamala Harris, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and progressive mega-donor George Soros. Meanwhile, she touted her many Republican Party endorsements, including those from President Trump, Governor Greg Abbott, and Senator Ted Cruz. So which party’s brand was more toxic? 

The Democratic brand may not be untarnished. But with thoughtful calibration and issue prioritization from a candidate with a solid biography and no baggage, Rehmet was able to manage just fine.  

3. Property Taxes May Be a Sleeper Issue 

While the national spotlight focused on immigration last month, both Rehmet and Wambsganss focused on high property taxes. Wambsganss said it was the voters’ “top concern.”. Rehmet centered his closing spot on affordability issues, weaving in property taxes with more familiar complaints about inflation: “This campaign is all about money. It’s about how much we get in our paychecks, how much we spend on groceries and health insurance, how much we pay in property taxes.” 

You might assume frustrations with taxes would help the Republican candidate. But Texas is run by Republicans, so Rehmet could flip the script and blame the party in power for high rates. “Republicans keep campaigning on empty promises about property tax relief,” Rehmet said in a campaign video, “But if you own a home in Texas, you already know the truth. Your property taxes keep going up.” He went on to blame the Republican Governor and Lieutenant Governor by name for “prioritizing their billionaire donors and voucher scams instead of funding our public schools,” forcing municipalities to raise property taxes “just to keep the lights on.”  

Whether Democrats in other areas can run the same play as Rehmet will depend on local conditions; it will certainly be easier for Democrats who are on the ballot in GOP-led states. But criticisms like Rehmet’s can be lobbed at the Trump administration by noting that cuts to federal education spending also make it harder for cities and towns to cover school costs without raising local property taxes.  

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