Blackhawks could have two top-16 picks in 2026 NHL Draft if Panthers don't make late run
Many Blackhawks fans are tired of hearing about draft picks, but they’re still important for the future of the organization — even if they’re not as all-engrossing as they were a few years ago.
For the first time in a few years, the Hawks aren’t guaranteed another top-three pick. On the other hand, they might end up with two entries in the NHL Draft lottery for the first time.
The Hawks entered play Monday tied for the fifth-fewest points (51) in the league. If they finish the season there, they would have an 8.7% chance of winning each of the two lotteries for the No. 1 and No. 2 picks (according to Tankathon) and would be guaranteed a top-seven pick.
It’s worth noting they’re only two points ahead of the Blues (49 points), who are in second-to-last place, so that could change. The Rangers, Flames and Jets are in that mix, too. The Canucks (42 points) are running away, so to speak, with last place. Those teams are starting to separate themselves as the bottom six.
It’s worth noting the Hawks are still on pace to finish with 15 points more than they did last season, a substantial improvement. It’s only because of the parity in the league this season that they’re even in the conversation for another bottom-three finish.
One factor, however, adds extra intrigue: The Hawks have the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Panthers’ first-round pick, and they are in serious danger of missing the playoffs.
The Panthers entered play Monday tied for 11th in the Eastern Conference with 59 points, eight points behind the Sabres for the last wild-card spot, after suffering three consecutive losses.
And the Panthers are lucky even to be in that position, thanks to a great record in one-goal games. They entered play Monday with a minus-11 goal differential.
It’s still difficult to count out the Panthers, especially because they made an against-the-odds late surge into the playoffs in 2023 — with some help from the Hawks, who dealt the Penguins a fatal blow — and because forward Matthew Tkachuk is now healthy and heating up.
The Hawks should be rooting hard against the Panthers down the stretch this season, however. Getting a top-16 pick in addition to goalie Spencer Knight in the trade last year for defenseman Seth Jones would represent some tidy business. (Jones has been injured for nearly a month now.)
If the season ended today, the Panthers’ pick would have only a 3.2% chance of winning the lottery and would move up only to fourth overall if it did win, but that’s of little concern. The Hawks assumed it likely would land in the 25th-to-32nd range when they acquired it.
While waiting for the standings and draft order to become clearer, the Hawks’ amateur scouting department continues to do what it does. It has a complicated job this year.
No longer is there a consensus No. 1 overall prospect in the 2026 class. In fact, there’s no consensus hierarchy at all. It’s a wide-open field.
Forwards Ivar Stenberg, Gavin McKenna, Tynan Lawrence, Caleb Malhotra, Viggo Bjorck and Ethan Belchetz and defensemen Keaton Verhoeff, Chase Reid, Alberts Smits, Carson Carels and Daxon Rudolph are in the conversation to be top-five picks, not to mention top-10 selections.
It would be surprising if anyone other than Stenberg, McKenna or Verhoeff went No. 1, but there’s still plenty of time for things to change. McKenna has halted his downward spiral, but his questionable work ethic still makes him seem antithetical to the Hawks’ usual type.
There’s also no guarantee this year the Hawks will prioritize forwards over defensemen. With so many young defensemen having graduated into the NHL, their pipeline of them is sparser now.
But with two relatively high picks, they easily could nab a forward and a defenseman.