Southwest Florida housing market still seeing a home price correction—how much lower will prices drop?

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Back in 2023, this single-family home at 19374 Rizzuto St. in Venice, FL (34293 ZIP Code) was purchased for $565,000. By the time the transaction closed, the housing market had already begun to enter a period of cyclical cooling—with Florida seeing a sharper power swing to buyers and some pockets of Southwest Florida moving into what ResiClub considers “correction mode.”

By February 2025, the homeowner listed the property above for sale at $519,000. After 4 subsequent price cuts and a brief delisting, the home finally sold in December 2025 for $455,000—or -19.5% below its 2023 sales price. While that’s certainly a material home price correction from its Pandemic Housing Boom peak, we should note that the December 2025 sales price ($455K) was still +38.7% above the $328,000 price the same property fetched in 2017.

As we’ve closely documented for ResiClub readers for the past few years (here’s our past feature on just Punta Gorda), Southwest Florida has been one of the two weakest regional chunks of the U.S. housing market. Among major U.S. metros, only Austin, Texas metro area (-27.3% since its 2022 peak) has seen a larger overall price drop this cycle than metros in Punta Gorda, FL (-25.3% from its 2022 peak), Cape Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL (-18.8% from its 2022 peak), and North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL (-17.4% from its 2022 peak). The North Port-Sarasota metro is where the home highlighted above is located.

Pulling from the ResiClub Terminal, single-family home prices in the ZIP Code highlighted in today’s article (34293) are down -11.3% year-over-year.

Pulling from the ResiClub Terminal, single-family home prices in the highlighted ZIP Code (34293) are down -21.5% from their 2022 peak. That’s broadly in line with the -19.5% decline at which the highlighted property sold relative to its 2023 price.

Pulling from the ResiClub Terminal, single-family home prices in the highlighted ZIP Code (34293) are still up +37.3% above March 2020 levels. That’s broadly similar to the +38.7% increase the highlighted property sold for in December 2025 relative to its pre-pandemic sale in 2017 ($328,000).

Again, today’s ResiClub article is not about a property in a market performing anywhere near the U.S. average right now. Instead, it highlights a market that has been among the weakest since the Pandemic Housing Boom fizzled out. Indeed, U.S. home prices, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index, entered 2026 at +1.9% above their July 2022 levels. Meanwhile, home prices in the North Port–Sarasota metro—where the home in the 34293 ZIP Code is located—entered 2026 at -17.4% below their July 2022 levels.

Click here to view an interactive of the chart below

There are several factors that have come together to tilt the supply-demand balance in Southwest Florida more decisively toward homebuyers since the Pandemic Housing Boom ended.

One key factor is that home prices in Southwest Florida rose too far, too fast—stretching housing fundamentals well beyond what local incomes could reasonably support in a region that also happened to have relatively lower building costs and ample entitled land. When the Pandemic Housing Boom’s domestic migration surge—particularly the influx of retirees and near-retirees—began to decelerate, the Southwest Florida market experienced an even bigger demand shock. With fewer in-migrants, Southwest Florida increasingly had to rely on local incomes to support prices—in a market that already had strained fundamentals.

At the same time, as market conditions shifted, elevated levels of new single-family and multifamily supply came online across parts of Southwest Florida. Builders and landlords were forced to offer larger incentives to move product, which pulled some marginal demand away from the resale market and added another layer of cooling.

Put more simply: Pockets of Southwest Florida had overshot, and the market needed a period of mean reversion.

Click here to view an interactive of the chart below

There are other factors, of course.

Following the Surfside condo collapse in June 2021, which killed 98 people, Florida passed new structural safety rules, requiring more inspections and additional funds for repairs to be set aside by the end of 2024. That has led to Florida HOAs issuing sky-high special assessments and monthly HOA fee increases to cover these costs. This has had a greater impact on older coastal Florida condo buildings.

Looking ahead, one big question is whether home prices in markets like Punta Gorda and Cape Coral (and metro area Austin, TX) have fallen enough to recapture the attention of homebuyers, mom-and-pop single-family investors, and single-family acquisition capital?

It’s worth noting that while many pockets of Southwest Florida still have inventory/months of supply levels above the national average, the pace of inventory growth has slowed significantly over the past year—and some areas in SWFL have even begun to see modest year-over-year declines in active listings.

Back in spring 2022, while working at Fortune, I suggested that pockets of Southwest Florida could be at greater risk of a home price correction. At the time, Moody’s Analytics’ model believed Punta Gorda, for example, was “overvalued” by 57.8%.

The correction Punta Gorda has gone through since then—coupled with additional income gains—means the market is now only “overvalued” by 9.0%, according to Moody’s model. In other words, the ongoing correction in Southwest Florida has significantly reduced downside risk going forward relative to where things stood a few years ago.