'Melania' may look like a box office win, but Amazon is still $68 million in the red

• "Melania" had an opening weekend box office gross of $7 million.
• It's the biggest opening for a doc in a decade — but there's more to consider.
• Amazon MGM Studios paid $40 million to acquire the movie and another $35 million to market it.

To the casual Hollywood observer, "Melania," Amazon MGM Studios' documentary on first lady Melania Trump, looks like a hit. But looks can be deceiving.

Brett Ratner's all-access glimpse at the first lady in the days leading up to the 2025 inauguration of President Donald Trump took in $7 million at the box office this weekend despite dismal reviews (it currently holds a 10% critics rating on Rotten Tomatoes). The $7 million take is the biggest opening for a non-concert, non-fiction movie in a decade.

But delving deeper into the numbers, it's clear that "Melania" faces an uphill battle to profitability.

Amazon is $75 million in the hole for 'Melania'

At first glance, the $7 million opening looks impressive in the context of how other popular docs have fared at the box office.

Questlove's 2021 Oscar-winning documentary "Summer of Soul," for example, broke the record for the biggest Sundance buy ever for a doc when it was sold to Searchlight/Hulu for $15 million. And that film only has a lifetime gross of $3.7 million.

However, Amazon bought "Melania" for $40 million ($28 million of which was pocketed by the first lady, according to The Wall Street Journal) and spent an additional $35 million on marketing the film, meaning it's $75 million in the hole and could face a long road to profitability.

This is an astronomical amount, according to veteran documentary film producers and industry insiders, who told Business Insider that documentaries released by streamers typically get between about $500,000 and $2 million on marketing to spend off-platform (this doesn't count award-season contenders — those get spends in the tens of millions).

"Spending upwards of $75 million on 'Melania' is not about art, it's about positioning," Exhibitor Relations box-office analyst Jeff Bock told Business Insider. "It certainly feeds news cycles and gets viral discourse, but 'Melania' is really a corporate chess move with a human brand as the piece. This is access and leverage for Amazon, plain and simple." 

In a statement to Business Insider, an Amazon MGM Studios spokesperson said, "We licensed the film for one reason and one reason only — because we think customers are going to love it."

'Melania' found success using the faith-based model

"Melania" found its box office dollars in the areas of the country that are pro-Trump.

Going into the weekend, industry projections had the doc earning between $3 million and $5 million in a release over 1,700 theaters. But theaters in Texas and Florida ended up overperforming, with cities like Fort Myers, Dallas/Fort Worth, Tampa, Orlando, and Houston all cracking the top ten box-office earners for "Melania," according to Deadline.

Essentially, Amazon went the path of the faith-based titles of the past: focus on your base to come out, and the rest is gravy.

Take, for example, The Cañon, a four-screen theater in Cañon City, Colorado. "Melania" was the theater's biggest draw this weekend, according to Luke Parker Bowles, whose Cinema Lab owns The Cañon.

"Exit poll interviews indicated that audience motivation was relatively evenly divided between political alignment and personal curiosity, with a smaller contingent citing a lack of alternative new releases as their primary reason for attendance," Bowles said.

The movie has a challenging road ahead to profitability

But the film's future in theaters is a murky one.

"Melania" is up against the Super Bowl this coming weekend; after that, Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi steam up the screen in the latest big-screen adaptation of "Wuthering Heights," which is certain to attract the female demo. (Comscore PostTrak exit polling showed 72% of the "Melania" audience was over 55, and 72% was female.)

The general consensus in the industry is that Amazon is using the "Melania" theatrical release to generate interest for when it becomes available to stream on Prime Video, though that's an expensive ploy.

"It's just outrageous," one documentary producer told Business Insider about the amount of money Amazon put into "Melania."

But Amazon's deep pockets mean it can take gambles others in Hollywood can only dream of.

Only $68 million left to profitability!