Cuba loses key oil lifeline as Trump warns communist regime will fail ‘pretty soon’

Cuba’s communist regime is under escalating strain as President Donald Trump intensifies his campaign to isolate the island and Mexico cuts off crucial oil shipments that have helped keep the country afloat.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced Tuesday that the state oil company Pemex had temporarily halted deliveries to Cuba, the Associated Press reported. The move is expected to intensify Havana’s energy crisis as oil from Venezuela, which served as Cuba’s traditional lifeline, is no longer flowing after the U.S. removed former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Sheinbaum on Tuesday insisted the move was independent of U.S. pressure, but the pause comes as Trump has publicly signaled that Cuba’s government is on the verge of collapse.

“Cuba will be failing pretty soon. Cuba is really a nation that’s very close to failing,” Trump told reporters on Tuesday. “You know, they got their money from Venezuela. They got the oil from Venezuela. They are not getting that anymore.”

Mexican, Russian, and Venezuelan fuel have been a vital energy source for Cuba, which is under strict economic sanctions from the U.S.

Mexican oil deliveries to Cuba averaged nearly 20,000 barrels per day from January through September 2025, according to Pemex. Satellite monitoring experts, however, suggest the figure has dropped to roughly 7,000 barrels per day in recent months, according to the AP.

“Cuba lived, for many years, on large amounts of OIL and MONEY from Venezuela … BUT NOT ANYMORE!’ Trump wrote on Truth Social on Jan. 11. “Venezuela now has the United States of America, the most powerful military in the World (by far!), to protect them, and protect them we will. THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA – ZERO!”

“I strongly suggest they make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE,” Trump added.

Sheinbaum described the decision to halt oil shipments as a “sovereign decision” amid normal supply fluctuations.

“Pemex makes decisions in the contractual relationship it has with Cuba,” Sheinbaum said in her morning news briefing, according to the AP. “Suspending is a sovereign decision and is taken when necessary.”

The Trump administration is also reportedly considering a full naval blockade of oil to Cuba to exert further pressure for a potential regime change. At the same time, on Jan. 14, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced humanitarian aid packages in coordination with the Catholic Church amid concerns about a humanitarian crisis in Cuba.

Beijing has also weighed in on the U.S. pressure campaign against Cuba, condemning what it describes as U.S. interference.

“China is deeply concerned about and strongly condemns the U.S. moves, and urges the U.S. to stop depriving the Cuban people of their rights to subsistence and development, stop disrupting regional peace and stability, stop its violations of international law, and immediately lift its blockade and sanctions again [Cuba],” Lin Jian, spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, wrote on X Tuesday.

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