Free Agent Profile: Aaron Civale, SP/RP
Aaron Civale, SP/RP
Position: SP/RP B/T: R/R
Player Data: Age: 30 (6/12/1995)
2025 Traditional Stats: 23 G, 102 IP, 4.85 ERA, 1.265 WHIP, 4-9, 88 K, 33 BB
2025 Advanced Stats: 86 ERA+, 20.2% K%, 7.6% BB%, 4.1 xERA, 4.63 FIP, 4.73 xFIP, 0.9 fWAR, 0.1 bWAR
Rundown
After bursting onto the scene in 2019 with a spectacular rookie campaign, Aaron Civale looked like he had potential to be a staple name for Cleveland. Throughout the early parts of his career, Civale put together several solid years for the Guardians before being traded to the Tampa Bay Rays at the 2023 deadline. After struggling in Tampa, he has been unable to find a home, playing for four teams over the past two seasons. The 2025 campaign was largely one to forget for Civale, starting off on the injured list in Milwaukee before being traded to the White Sox for Andrew Vaughn, before ultimately being waived and claimed by the Cubs. On the bright side, he didn’t have to go too far to join his final team.
Civale’s calling card as a pitcher has always been his incredible repertoire of pitches in his arsenal. In 2025, Civale threw seven different pitches, with six of them being thrown over 100 times. However, a large arsenal of pitches does not always lead to success in the major leagues. Civale’s 4.85 ERA was his highest since 2022, and his 7.6% BB% was the worst of his career. Despite the struggles in the earlier parts of 2025, Civale moved to the bullpen and saw some success that he is hoping to build upon moving forward.
As a starter in 2025, Civale went 3-9 with a 5.26 ERA over 89 IP. After getting to the Cubs, he was moved to the bullpen and finished the year 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA over 13 IP. While the sample size is small, his underlying metrics were much better as a reliever. A 3.33 xFIP and 28% K% as a reliever vs 4.94 and 19.2% as a starter. The interesting thing is, this move to the bullpen makes even more sense when you look further into Civale’s career. Over his career, Civale has held opposing batters to a .669 OPS the first time through the order compared to .765 and .762 in the second and third times through. In 2025, this was even more drastic. The first time through the order opposing OPS was .679, compared to .818 and .877 in the next two plate appearances.
It is impossible to know if this is a new area of success or if this is just a small sample of largely garbage-time relief innings. To play the other side, the batted ball profile is not very friendly for a relief pitcher. Civale’s fly ball rate in 2025 was 46.9%, 11th highest of any pitcher (min. 100 IP). It is difficult for relief pitchers to succeed in today’s league without generating swings and misses or ground balls.
Contract
Civale elected to test the free agent market as someone who has experience as a starter and a reliever. Spotrac gives Civale a $14.9M market value and a projected contract of two years, $29.85M. It may not be likely that a team would be willing to give him a second year or nearly $15M AAV after his previous two seasons. With the current market for pitchers, teams have been unwilling to give length to any pitchers they are not certain about.
Recommendation: Worth Checking In
I am a believer that you can never have enough pitchers, so it would be wise to give Civale a look. He could provide value in a potentially longer relief role or someone who can eat innings in games where a starter is taken out early. It is possible that his move to the bullpen brought some potential success. However, with newly acquired Tobias Myers likely playing this role as a better and cheaper option, it is difficult to envision a role for Civale that is worth any real contract.
It is reasonable to assume his days as a starter might be over, so a cheap one-year bullpen deal is always an option. However, with the arms currently in the bullpen and guys currently available as free agents, it’s likely not an avenue the Mets go down unless some arms go down in the spring.
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